Doug Ford – the Net Zero Premier

Dan McTeague

Published

7 months ago

6 minute read

By Dan McTeague

Doug Ford came into power promising a change from the Kathleen Wynne Green Energy Act fiasco – the one which saddled Ontario taxpayers with costly green energy contracts, driving up the price of power. Ford promised to scrap those wasteful contracts, lower hydro rates, and restore affordability to Ontario. But as we take stock of his energy policies today, it seems Ford is steering Ontario down a path that feels a bit too familiar.

For all his talk about energy affordability, Ford continues to pander to the environmentalist “Net Zero” ideology that got Ontario into this mess in the first place. The idea is that somehow Canada will be a net zero emitter of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. We have seen this play out at the Federal level, with the Trudeau Liberals implementing a host of reckless and punitive policies in the vain hopes of achieving this preposterous goal. You can thank Net Zero for Carbon Taxes, Emissions Caps, the Clean Fuel Standard, Electric Vehicle Mandates and on and on.

Instead of backing away and distancing himself from this scam, Doug Ford has embraced and doubled down on it. Recall that during a provincial leaders debate in June 2022, Ford stated that he will not be happy until Ontario achieves a 100% zero-carbon electricity grid, buying into the Net Zero electrification nonsense that the Trudeau government is pushing. This would mean moving away from fossil fuels like affordable and reliable natural gas as energy sources in Ontario.

Stephen Lecce, Ford’s minister of the recently renamed Ministry of Energy and Electrification, is full steam ahead on this project. And the ministry’s new name is significant, pointing towards an “energy transition” for Ontario, such that eventually everything – cars, home heating, etc. – will be run on electricity rather than traditional fuels.

Currently, about 20 per cent of Ontario’s energy needs are met by electricity, so where will this electricity come from, without fossil fuels? At a recent Empire Club event, Ford gave a fireside chat where he discussed Ontario’s electricity plan (you can hear the interview here). He spoke about the energy sector and his commitment to all low carbon options for Ontario’s electricity grid, including wind and solar. This marks a reversal of his earlier skepticism about these technologies. The irony is that Ontario taxpayers are still paying for the expensive legacy of earlier wind and solar government spending. Wasting more taxpayer dollars will mean more of the following: higher energy costs, decreased grid reliability, and growing public debt.

As energy expert Parker Gallant has pointed out, the costs of wind power alone have been staggering, with taxpayers footing the bill for inefficient projects that deliver intermittent power. Doubling down on these same strategies, even under a different name, does little to address affordability or reliability.

Ford has hitched his horse fully to the Net Zero wagon. According to his government’s policy document Planning for electrification and the energy transition: “Much of the world – including many of Ontario’s major trading partners – have committed to achieving economy-wide carbon neutrality by 2050.” Consequently, it recommends that Ontario adopt similar Net Zero strategies, as doing so allegedly contributes “to the global climate solution and thereby sets the province up to succeed and prosper in the emerging global clean energy economy.”

These claims didn’t make sense when they were made five years ago and they make even less sense today. Afterall, Ontario’s largest trading partner to the South has just elected Donald Trump whose policy approach to energy can be summarized by the phrase, “Drill Baby Drill.” We can expect that one of Trump’s first acts as president will be to (once again) exit the Paris Agreement. Trump has no intention of drinking the Net Zero KoolAid, though he will no doubt be happy to have America’s competitors like Canada burden themselves with unnecessary environmental commitments and regulations, which will drive up the cost of doing business and make “made in America” a much more attractive brand. Competitiveness and affordability in Canada can go out the window as manufacturers and businesses will start looking South as the more attractive business environment.

While Trump seeks to unleash the United States’ energy potential, Ford will only stifle Ontario’s. Which is to say, Ford is setting Ontario up for failure. Now that is a real net zero.

Dan McTeague is President of Canadians for Affordable Energy.

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Dan McTeague

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An 18 year veteran of the House of Commons, Dan is widely known in both official languages for his tireless work on energy pricing and saving Canadians money through accurate price forecasts. His Parliamentary initiatives, aimed at helping Canadians cope with affordable energy costs, led to providing Canadians heating fuel rebates on at least two occasions. Widely sought for his extensive work and knowledge in energy pricing, Dan continues to provide valuable insights to North American media and policy makers. He brings three decades of experience and proven efforts on behalf of consumers in both the private and public spheres. Dan is committed to improving energy affordability for Canadians and promoting the benefits we all share in having a strong and robust energy sector.

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Canada Caves: Carney ditches digital services tax after criticism from Trump

Published on June 30, 2025

Todayville

From The Center Square

By Brett Rowland

Canada caved to President Donald Trump demands by pulling its digital services tax hours before it was to go into effect on Monday.

Trump said Friday that he was ending all trade talks with Canada over the digital services tax, which he called a direct attack on the U.S. and American tech firms. The DST required foreign and domestic businesses to pay taxes on some revenue earned from engaging with online users in Canada.

“Based on this egregious Tax, we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately,” the president said. “We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period.”

By Sunday, Canada relented in an effort to resume trade talks with the U.S., it’s largest trading partner.

“To support those negotiations, the Minister of Finance and National Revenue, the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, announced today that Canada would rescind the Digital Services Tax (DST) in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States,” according to a statement from Canada’s Department of Finance.

Canada’s Department of Finance said that Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump agreed to resume negotiations, aiming to reach a deal by July 21.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Monday that the digital services tax would hurt the U.S.

“Thank you Canada for removing your Digital Services Tax which was intended to stifle American innovation and would have been a deal breaker for any trade deal with America,” he wrote on X.

Earlier this month, the two nations seemed close to striking a deal.

Trump said he and Carney had different concepts for trade between the two neighboring countries during a meeting at the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, in the Canadian Rockies.

Asked what was holding up a trade deal between the two nations at that time, Trump said they had different concepts for what that would look like.

“It’s not so much holding up, I think we have different concepts, I have a tariff concept, Mark has a different concept, which is something that some people like, but we’re going to see if we can get to the bottom of it today.”

Shortly after taking office in January, Trump hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs for allowing fentanyl and migrants to cross their borders into the U.S. Trump later applied those 25% tariffs only to goods that fall outside the free-trade agreement between the three nations, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Trump put a 10% tariff on non-USMCA compliant potash and energy products. A 50% tariff on aluminum and steel imports from all countries into the U.S. has been in effect since June 4. Trump also put a 25% tariff on all cars and trucks not built in the U.S.

Economists, businesses and some publicly traded companies have warned that tariffs could raise prices on a wide range of consumer products.

Trump has said he wants to use tariffs to restore manufacturing jobs lost to lower-wage countries in decades past, shift the tax burden away from U.S. families, and pay down the national debt.

A tariff is a tax on imported goods paid by the person or company that imports them. The importer can absorb the cost of the tariffs or try to pass the cost on to consumers through higher prices.

Trump’s tariffs give U.S.-produced goods a price advantage over imported goods, generating revenue for the federal government.

Brett Rowland

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Canadian Oil Sands Production Expected to Reach All-time Highs this Year Despite Lower Oil Prices

Published on June 30, 2025

Todayville

From Energy Now

S&P Global Commodity Insights has raised its 10-year production outlook for the Canadian oil sands. The latest forecast expects oil sands production to reach a record annual average production of 3.5 million b/d in 2025 (5% higher than 2024) and exceed 3.9 million b/d by 2030—half a million barrels per day higher than 2024. The 2030 projection is 100,000 barrels per day (or nearly 3%) higher than the previous outlook.

The new forecast, produced by the S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands Dialogue, is the fourth consecutive upward revision to the annual outlook. Despite a lower oil price environment, the analysis attributes the increased projection to favorable economics, as producers continue to focus on maximizing existing assets through investments in optimization and efficiency.

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While large up-front, out-of-pocket expenditures over multiple years are required to bring online new oil sands projects, once completed, projects enjoy relatively low breakeven prices.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that the 2025 half-cycle break-even for oil sands production ranged from US$18/b to US$45/b, on a WTI basis, with the overall average break-even being approximately US$27/b.*

“The increased trajectory for Canadian oil sands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers’ continued emphasis on optimization—and the favorable economics that underpin such operations,” said Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Analyst, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “More than 3.8 million barrels per day of existing installed capacity was brought online from 2001 and 2017. This large resource base provides ample room for producers to find debottlenecking opportunities, decrease downtime and increase throughput.”

The potential for additional upside exists given the nature of optimization projects, which often result from learning by doing or emerge organically, the analysis says.

“Many companies are likely to proceed with optimizations even in more challenging price environments because they often contribute to efficiency gains,” said Celina Hwang, Director, Crude Oil Markets, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “This dynamic adds to the resiliency of oil sands production and its ability to grow through periods of price volatility.”

The outlook continues to expect oil sands production to enter a plateau later this decade. However, this is also expected to occur at a higher level of production than previously estimated. The new forecast expects oil sands production to be 3.7 million b/d in 2035—100,000 b/d higher than the previous outlook.

Export capacity—already a concern in recent years—is a source of downside risk now that even more production growth is expected. Without further incremental pipeline capacity, export constraints have the potential to re-emerge as early as next year, the analysis says.

“While a lower price path in 2025 and the potential for pipeline export constraints are downside risks to this outlook, the oil sands have proven able to withstand extreme price volatility in the past,” said Hwang. “The low break-even costs for existing projects and producers’ ability to manage challenging situations in the past support the resilience of this outlook.”

* Half-cycle breakeven cost includes operating cost, the cost to purchase diluent (if needed), as well as an adjustment to enable a comparison to WTI—specifically, the cost of transport to Cushing, OK and quality differential between heavy and light oil.

About S&P Global Commodity Insights

At S&P Global Commodity Insights, our complete view of global energy and commodity markets enables our customers to make decisions with conviction and create long-term, sustainable value.

We’re a trusted connector that brings together thought leaders, market participants, governments, and regulators and we create solutions that lead to progress. Vital to navigating commodity markets, our coverage includes oil and gas, power, chemicals, metals, agriculture, shipping and energy transition. Platts^® products and services, including leading benchmark price assessments in the physical commodity markets, are offered through S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global Commodity Insights maintains clear structural and operational separation between its price assessment activities and the other activities carried out by S&P Global Commodity Insights and the other business divisions of S&P Global.

S&P Global Commodity Insights is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workﬂow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world’s leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information visit https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en.

SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights