Alberta
Emergency expert says covid cases will mostly disappear by May. Lockdown restrictions not necessary.
Retired Lieutenant Colonel David Redman wishes government officials would rely less on computer modelling and more on real world stats which are easy enough to find online. The former head of the Alberta Emergency Management Agency says jurisdictions everywhere have made the covid crisis far worse by ignoring their emergency response plans and treating the covid crisis as a health emergency. As a result health officials are virtually in charge of all government matters which has resulted in governments prioritizing the protection of hospitals instead of considering all parts of government and society equally.
As for case numbers, Redman says you only have to look as far as the US to compare how covid has been spreading in states which have had strict lockdowns and other states which have been ‘open’ for months. Below are the daily case graphs from Worldometers.com showing how case numbers have been tracking in the neighbouring states of South Dakota with no lockdowns or restrictions, and North Dakota which did implement restrictions along with most other jurisdictions in November as case numbers were soaring. The graphs look nearly identical with numbers peaking in November and early December and falling significantly until a levelling off in February and slightly increasing in March.


It’s a similar story in California which has had some of the tightest restrictions in the US and Texas which had far fewer restrictions and then completely dropped restrictions almost a month ago. In both states numbers are down significantly from peaks in December and January.

When looking at case numbers around the world David Redman concluded that these graphs look strikingly similar to the annual viral infection curve. Jurisdictions seem to be affected less by the type of restrictions they’ve been enforcing compared to their neighbours and more by the climate they share. Looking back on the last year Redman predicts that the covid case numbers will continue to follow this pattern and in jurisdictions everywhere, numbers will plummet as temperatures heat up around the beginning of May. Here’s a short presentation by David Redman comparing lockdown measures and Canada’s Annual Viral Infection Curve. Redman shows the annual viral infection curve performed exactly as usual in the past year.
Redman says this shows restrictions have not affected case numbers, but have coincided with the curve. He concludes lockdown measures have not significantly affected the spread of Covid.
If the Province of Alberta and other governments would have enacted their emergency response agencies at the beginning of this crisis, Redman says the approach would have been significantly more successful at saving lives, and protecting the economy. Here is an abridged version of his presentation on emergency management. Redman has been trying unsuccessfully to convince governments across the country to pivot away from their health emergency response plans to the more general emergency response plans. It’s a compelling argument and a must see.
Alberta
READ IT HERE – Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding – From the Prime Minister’s Office
Alberta
Falling resource revenue fuels Alberta government’s red ink
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
According to this week’s fiscal update, amid falling oil prices, the Alberta government will run a projected $6.4 billion budget deficit in 2025/26—higher than the $5.2 billion deficit projected earlier this year and a massive swing from the $8.3 billion surplus recorded in 2024/25.
Overall, that’s a $14.8 billion deterioration in Alberta’s budgetary balance year over year. Resource revenue, including oil and gas royalties, comprises 44.5 per cent of that decline, falling by a projected $6.6 billion.
Albertans shouldn’t be surprised—the good times never last forever. It’s all part of the boom-and-bust cycle where the Alberta government enjoys budget surpluses when resource revenue is high, but inevitably falls back into deficits when resource revenue declines. Indeed, if resource revenue was at the same level as last year, Alberta’s budget would be balanced.
Instead, the Alberta government will return to a period of debt accumulation with projected net debt (total debt minus financial assets) reaching $42.0 billion this fiscal year. That comes with real costs for Albertans in the form of high debt interest payments ($3.0 billion) and potentially higher taxes in the future. That’s why Albertans need a new path forward. The key? Saving during good times to prepare for the bad.
The Smith government has made some strides in this direction by saving a share of budget surpluses, recorded over the last few years, in the Heritage Fund (Alberta’s long-term savings fund). But long-term savings is different than a designated rainy-day account to deal with short-term volatility.
Here’s how it’d work. The provincial government should determine a stable amount of resource revenue to be included in the budget annually. Any resource revenue above that amount would be automatically deposited in the rainy-day account to be withdrawn to support the budget (i.e. maintain that stable amount) in years when resource revenue falls below that set amount.
It wouldn’t be Alberta’s first rainy-day account. Back in 2003, the province established the Alberta Sustainability Fund (ASF), which was intended to operate this way. Unfortunately, it was based in statutory law, which meant the Alberta government could unilaterally change the rules governing the fund. Consequently, by 2007 nearly all resource revenue was used for annual spending. The rainy-day account was eventually drained and eliminated entirely in 2013. This time, the government should make the fund’s rules constitutional, which would make them much more difficult to change or ignore in the future.
According to this week’s fiscal update, the Alberta government’s resource revenue rollercoaster has turned from boom to bust. A rainy-day account would improve predictability and stability in the future by mitigating the impact of volatile resource revenue on the budget.
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