Economy
Canadians weary after years of brutal inflation
From the Fraser Institute
The last four-plus years have been a rollercoaster for millions of Canadians. The pandemic, which began in early 2020, quickly led to mass layoffs (most temporary) and widespread disruptions to normal life. This was accompanied by hiccups in often-fragile global supply chains, subsequently aggravated by the Russia-Ukraine war. In response to these developments, governments and central banks provided unprecedented amounts of fiscal and monetary “stimulus” over the course of 2020-21.
All of this set the stage for skyrocketing inflation and a cost-of-living crisis in many countries. As in most peer jurisdictions, inflation and living costs jumped in Canada, beginning in late-2021 and accelerating throughout 2022. Faced with the highest inflation in four decades, the Bank of Canada belatedly responded with dramatic interest rate hikes in 2022 and the first half of 2023. The central bank’s abrupt shift to a restrictive monetary policy pummelled the economy by dampening private-sector spending and real estate activity. Economic growth slowed to a crawl in 2023 and has continued to lag in 2024. The labour market has also softened, with job growth slowing and the unemployment rate rising.
The good news is that victory is in sight for the Bank of Canada’s quest to bring inflation back to its official 2 per cent target. In recent months, year-over-year increases in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices for goods and services, have been running comfortably below 3 per cent compared to close to 7 per cent a couple of years ago, and inflation slowed to 2.5 per cent in July. With inflation mostly tamed, the central bank has started to lower its short-term policy interest rate, from 5 per cent in May 2024 to 4.5 per cent today. Further cuts are expected.
It’s worth summarizing how the inflation “scare” has affected the prices Canadians now pay for goods and services.
From January 2020 to June 2024, cumulative inflation amounted to 18 per cent. This captures the combined increase in prices for the hundreds of individual items in the CPI. The price of “shelter” has risen faster than prices in general. Since January 2020, the shelter component of the CPI has climbed by one-quarter. Shelter costs include rents, mortgage payments, residential fuel, electricity and water charges.
Food prices have also been on a tear. Since January 2020, the food component of the Consumer Price Index has increased by 24 per cent. According to the latest Canadian inflation report, food inflation has dropped to 2.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis, but consumers are still struggling with sticker shock at the grocery store.
The cost of transportation—a category which includes gasoline—has also marched higher, up by more than one-fifth since early 2020.
It’s clear many Canadians have been hurt by the 2021-24 inflation surge. A Statistics Canada survey conducted a few months ago found that 45 per cent of respondents reported difficulty meeting day-to-day expenses, a far bigger share than two years earlier. Those on fixed incomes and younger people striving to form separate households have been hardest hit. Meanwhile, workers whose pay hasn’t kept pace with above-normal inflation have seen their purchasing power diminish. All of this has soured the public mood and put incumbent governments on the defensive.
Fortunately, the evidence suggests that inflation will soon return to the official 2 per cent target. This should ease recent cost-of-living pressures and help bolster flagging consumer and business confidence in Canada. It can’t happen soon enough.
Author:
Business
Oil may be exempt from Trump Tariffs as Trump says oil “has nothing to do with it”
From LifeSiteNews
Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico this Saturday
U.S. President Donald Trump has confirmed that he will implement 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico this Saturday.
During a January 30 interview, Trump announced that, beginning February 1, he will impose 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico while Canada’s Parliament remains suspended thanks to an order by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
“Number one is the people that have poured into our country so horribly and so much,” Trump told media. “Number two are the drugs, fentanyl, and everything else that have come into the country; and, number three are the massive subsidies that we’re giving to Canada and to Mexico in the form of deficits.”
It’s unclear if Canada’s oil will be exempt from the tariff as Trump told reporters that oil “has nothing to do with it.”
Trump’s tariffs aim to force Canada and Mexico to take serious action against illegal drug smuggling and immigration which occurs at their borders.
Initially, the tariff was to take effect on his first day of office, January 20, but was postponed until February 1, leaving Canadians under two weeks to respond to his demands.
However, because Trudeau prorogued Parliament until March 24, little action has been taken by Canadian politicians to respond to Trump’s threats.
Trudeau, who is slated to resign once a new Liberal leader is selected, has told Canadians that Liberals are considering all options, including retaliatory tariffs.
“We will not hesitate to act,” Trudeau said at a meeting of the Council on Canada-U.S. Relations on January 17. “We will respond and, I will say it again, everything is on the table.”
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has demanded that Trudeau immediately reconvene Parliament on an “emergency” basis so Canada can deal with the looming tariffs.
“Canada is facing a critical challenge. On February 1st we are facing the risk of unjustified 25% tariffs by our largest trading partner that would have damaging consequences across our country,” wrote Poilievre in a news release Tuesday.
Meanwhile, polls have revealed that 77 percent of Canadians want an immediate election to deal with the tariff threat.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has done just that, calling a snap election to take place on February 27. The election, according to Ford, allows him to secure a new “four-year” mandate from Ontario voters to respond to Trump’s tariffs.
News that the tariffs are to take effect also come after Trump has repeatedly suggested that he would like to annex Canada and make the country the “51st state” of America.
While Trump’s comments were initially passed over as a joke or trolling, Trump has persistently referred to Canada as the “51st state” and even threatened to use “economic force” to overtake Canada.
Trump claimed that there is a $200 billion trade deficit between Canada and the U.S. regarding spending on “subsidies” and the fact that the U.S. military is there to also “protect Canada.”
Just last week, Trump told the World Economic Forum (WEF), “We love Canada, but they might be better off as part of the United States.” He made the comments to suggest that Canada, as a way of avoiding the tariffs he is threatening, should just up and join the United States.
Trump’s repeated threats have drawn the ire of many Canadians, who boldly tell the president that Canada will remain its own country. Others have warned that the move to annex Canada would bring about the beginning of a one-world government.
Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre, who is likely to become prime minister in the next election, has had choice words for Trump. He has said Canada will “never” become a U.S. “state.”
“We are a great and independent country,” he continued. “We are the best friend to the U.S. We spent billions of dollars and hundreds of lives helping Americans retaliate against Al-Qaeda’s 9/11 attacks. We supply the U.S. with billions of dollars of high-quality and totally reliable energy well below market prices. We buy hundreds of billions of dollars of American goods.”
Business
Canada holds valuable bargaining chip in trade negotiations with Trump
From the Fraser Institute
By Alex Whalen and Jake Fuss
On the eve of a possible trade war with the United States, Canadian policymakers have a valuable bargaining chip they can play in any negotiations—namely, Canada’s “supply management” system.
During his first day in the Oval Office, President Donald Trump said he may impose “25 per cent” tariffs on Canadian and Mexican exports into the United States on Feb. 1. In light of his resounding election win and Republican control of both houses of congress, Trump has a strong hand.
In response, Canadian policymakers—including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ontario Premier Doug Ford—have threatened retaliation. But any retaliation (tariffs imposed on the U.S., for example) would likely increase the cost of living for Canadians.
Thankfully, there’s another way. To improve our trade position with the U.S.—and simultaneously benefit Canadian consumers—policymakers could dismantle our outdated system of supply management, which restricts supply, controls imports and allows producers of milk, eggs and poultry to maintain higher prices for their products than would otherwise exist in a competitive market. Government dictates who can produce, what can be produced, when and how much. While some aspects of the system are provincial (such as certain marketing boards), the federal government controls many key components of supply management including import restrictions and national quotas.
How would this help Canada minimize the Trump threat?
In the U.S., farmers backed Trump by a three-to-one margin in the 2024 election, and given Trump’s overall views on trade, the new administration will likely target Canadian supply management in the near future. (Ironically, Trump has cried foul about Canadian tariffs, which underpin our supply management system.) Given the transactional nature of Trump’s leadership, Canadian negotiators could put supply management on the negotiating table as a bargaining chip to counter demands that would actually damage the Canadian economy, such as Trump’s tariffs. This would allow Trump to deliver increased access to the Canadian market for the farmers that overwhelmingly supported him in the election.
And crucially, this would also be good for Canadian consumers. According to a 2015 study, our supply management system costs the average Canadian household an estimated extra $300 to $444 annually, and higher prices hurt lower-income Canadians more than any other group. If we scrapped supply management, we’d see falling prices at the grocery store and increased choice due to dairy imports from the U.S.
Unfortunately, Parliament has been moving in the opposite direction. Bill C-282, which recently passed in the House of Commons and is now before the Senate, would entrench supply management by restricting the ability of Canadian trade negotiators to use increased market access as a tool in international trade negotiations. In other words, the bill—if passed—will rob Canadian negotiators of a key bargaining chip in negotiations with Trump. With a potential federal election looming, any party looking to strengthen Canada’s trade position and benefit consumers here at home should reject Bill C-282.
Trade negotiations in the second Trump era will be difficult so our policymakers in Ottawa and the provinces must avoid self-inflicted wounds. By dismantling Canada’s system of supply management, they could win concessions from Team Trump, possibly avert a destructive tit-for-tat tariff exchange, and reduce the cost of living for Canadians.
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