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Canada’s struggle against transnational crime & money laundering

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From the Macdonald-Laurier Institute

By Alex Dalziel and Jamie Ferrill

In this episode of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Inside Policy Talks podcast, Senior Fellow and National Security Project Lead Alex Dalziel explores the underreported issue of trade-based money laundering (TBML) with Dr. Jamie Ferrill, the head of financial crime studies at Charles Sturt University in Canberra, Australia and a former Canada Border Services Agency officer.

The discussion focuses on how organized crime groups use global trade transactions to disguise illicit proceeds and the threat this presents to the Canada’s trade relationship with the US and beyond.

Definition of TBML: Trade-based money laundering disguises criminal proceeds by moving value through trade transactions instead of transferring physical cash. Criminals (usually) exploit international trade by  manipulating trade documents, engaging in phantom shipping, and altering invoices to disguise illicit funds as legitimate commerce, bypassing conventional financial scrutiny. As Dr. Ferrill explains, “we have dirty money that’s been generated through things like drug trafficking, human trafficking, arms trafficking, sex trafficking, and that money needs to be cleaned in one way or another. Trade is one of the ways that that’s done.”

A Pervasive Problem: TBML is challenging to detect due to the vast scale and complexity of global trade, making it an attractive channel for organized crime groups. Although global estimates are imprecise, the Financial Action Task Force and The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) suggests 2-5% of GDP could be tied to money laundering, representing trillions of dollars annually. In Canada, this could mean over $70 billion in potentially laundered funds each year. Despite the scope of TBML, Canada has seen no successful prosecutions for criminal money laundering through trade, highlighting significant gaps in identifying, investigating and prosecuting these complex cases.

Canada’s Vulnerabilities: Along with the sheer volume and complexity of global trade, Canada’s vulnerabilities stem from gaps in anti-money laundering regulation, particularly in high-risk sectors like real estate, luxury goods, and legal services, where criminals exploit weak oversight. Global trade exemplifies the vulnerabilities in oversight, where gaps and limited controls create substantial opportunities for money laundering. A lack of comprehensive export controls also limits Canada’s ability to monitor goods leaving the country effectively. Dr. Ferrill notes that “If we’re seen as this weak link in the process, that’s going to have significant implications on trade partnerships,” underscoring the potential political risks to bilateral trade if Canada fails to address these issues.

International and Private Sector Cooperation: Combating TBML effectively requires strong international cooperation, particularly between Canada and key trade partners like the U.S. The private sector—including freight forwarders, customs brokers, and financial institutions—plays a crucial role in spotting suspicious activities along the supply chain. As Dr. Ferrill emphasizes, “Canada and the U.S. can definitely work together more efficiently and effectively to share and then come up with some better strategies,” pointing to the need for increased collaboration to strengthen oversight and disrupt these transnational crime networks.


Looking to further understand the threat of transnational organized crime to Canada’s borders?

Check out Inside Policy Talks recent podcasts with Christian LeuprechtTodd Hataley  and Alan Bersin.

To learn more about Dr. Ferrill’s research on TBML, check out her chapter in Dirty Money: Financial Crime in Canada.

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DOGE discovered $330M in Small Business loans awarded to children under 11

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Quick Hit:

In a bombshell revelation at a White House cabinet meeting, Elon Musk announced that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had uncovered over $330 million in Small Business Administration (SBA) loans issued to children under the age of 11.

Key Details:

  • Elon Musk stated that DOGE found $330 million in SBA loans given to individuals under the age of 11.
  • The youngest recipient was reportedly just nine months old, receiving a $100,000 loan.
  • SBA has now paused the direct loan process for individuals under 18 and over 120 years old.

Diving Deeper:

At a cabinet meeting held Monday at the White House, President Donald Trump and Elon Musk detailed a staggering example of federal waste  uncovered by the newly-formed Department of Government Efficiency. Speaking directly to ongoing efforts to eliminate corruption and abuse in federal agencies, Musk explained that the SBA had awarded hundreds of millions in loans to children—some of whom were still in diapers.

“A case of fraud was with the Small Business Administration, where they were handing out loans — $330 million worth of loans to people under the age of 11,” Musk said. “I think the youngest, Kelly, was a nine-month year old who got a $100,000 loan. That’s a very precocious baby we’re talking about here.”

DOGE’s findings forced the SBA to abruptly change its loan procedures. In a post on X, the department revealed it would now require applicants to include their date of birth and was halting direct loans to those under 18 and above 120 years old. Musk commented sarcastically: “No more loans to babies or people too old to be alive.”

The discovery was just the latest in a series of contract cancellations and fraud crackdowns led by DOGE. According to Breitbart News, DOGE recently canceled 105 contracts totaling $935 million in potential taxpayer liabilities. The agency’s website currently lists over 6,600 terminated contracts, accounting for $20 billion in savings.

The president praised Musk and DOGE for rooting out government inefficiencies, noting his administration was focused on “cutting” people and programs that were not working or delivering results. “We’re not going to let people collect paychecks or taxpayer funds without doing their jobs,” Trump said.

Also during the cabinet session, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins revealed her department had eliminated a $300,000 program aimed at teaching “food justice” to transgender and queer farmers in San Francisco. “I’m not even sure what that means,” Rollins said, “but apparently the last administration wanted to put our taxpayer dollars towards that.”

These revelations highlight what many conservatives have long suspected—that during prior administrations, including under President Joe Biden, massive amounts of federal funding were funneled into unserious, ideologically-driven projects and mismanaged government programs. Under the Trump administration’s second term, DOGE appears to be living up to its mission: trimming fat, exposing fraud, and putting American taxpayers first.

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Cuba has lost 24% of it’s population to emigration in the last 4 years

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Quick Hit:

A new study finds Cuba has lost nearly a quarter of its population since 2020, driven by economic collapse and a mass emigration wave unseen outside of war zones. The country’s population now stands at just over 8 million, down from nearly 10 million.

Key Details:

  • Independent study estimates Cuba’s population at 8.02 million—down 24% in four years.
  • Over 545,000 Cubans left the island in 2024 alone—double the official government figure.
  • Demographer warns the crisis mirrors depopulation seen only in wartime, calling it a “systemic collapse.”

Diving Deeper:

Cuba is undergoing a staggering demographic collapse, losing nearly one in four residents over the past four years, according to a new study by economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos. The report estimates that by the end of 2024, Cuba’s population will stand at just over 8 million people—down from nearly 10 million—a 24% drop that Albizu-Campos says is comparable only to what is seen in war-torn nations.

The study, accessed by the Spanish news agency EFE, points to mass emigration as the primary driver. In 2024 alone, 545,011 Cubans are believed to have left the island. That number is more than double what the regime officially acknowledges, as Cuba’s government only counts those heading to the United States, ignoring large flows to destinations like Mexico, Spain, Serbia, and Uruguay.

Albizu-Campos describes the trend as “demographic emptying,” driven by what he calls a “quasi-permanent polycrisis” in Cuba—an interwoven web of political repression, economic freefall, and social decay. For years, Cubans have faced food and medicine shortages, blackout-plagued days, fuel scarcity, soaring inflation, and a broken currency system. The result has been not just migration, but a desperate stampede for the exits.

Yet, the regime continues to minimize the damage. Official figures from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) put Cuba’s population at just over 10 million in 2023. However, even those numbers acknowledge a shrinking population and the lowest birth rate in decades—confirming the crisis, if not its full scale.

Cuba hasn’t held a census since 2012. The last scheduled one in 2022 has been repeatedly delayed, allegedly due to lack of resources. Experts doubt that any new attempt will be transparent or complete.

Albizu-Campos warns that the government’s refusal to confront the reality of the collapse is obstructing any chance at solutions. More than just a demographic issue, the study describes Cuba’s situation as a “systemic crisis.”

 

Havana (Cuba, February 2023)” by Bruno Rijsman licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 DEED.
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