“The U.S. is on track to produce nearly 50 percent more per person than Canada will. This stunning divergence is unprecedented in modern history.”
National productivity is key to our personal prosperity and standard of living—and we’re in trouble.
Canada’s productivity, a measure of our efficiency in producing goods and services, has been seriously slumping for years, and we are now one of the least productive G7 nations.
Now, business leaders say part of the solution could, and should, lie in producing natural resources and supercharging the resource sector.
The Royal Bank of Canada reports: “The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers. Declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters have left average income per person back at decade-ago levels, and the unemployment rate has risen more than in other advanced economies.
“Canada is not ‘officially’ in a recession… but per-capita gross domestic product and the unemployment rate are more representative of what individual households and workers are experiencing in the current economy, and on that basis, it certainly feels like one.”
Now, a new report by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce says a comprehensive national strategy is needed to promote resource investments.
“We really need to lean into our strengths as a country,” says report author Andrew DiCapua. “We are lucky to live in a country where we have abundant natural resources… We should be trying to find ways to attract investment to supercharge the sector.”
Senior economist DiCapua notes: “With Canada facing significant economic challenges—below-trend growth, declining living standards, regulatory uncertainty, and weak business investment—the Canadian economy is not keeping pace.
“The main recommendation here is to create regulations and policies that provide regulatory certainty—or rather clarity—so that investment can be attracted into this crucial (natural-resource) sector.”
The national business group says the new approach should include streamlining government regulations, recognizing the need for timely approval of major projects, and ensuring policy stability.
It also recommends speeding up the delivery of investment tax credits for projects that cut emissions and adopting a trade infrastructure plan to ensure the country has sufficient roads, ports, and energy transmission lines for accessing resources in remote areas.
The Chamber notes that the natural-resources sector is the second-largest in Canada, paying compensation last year that was $25,000 more than the national average.
“The sector can do this because of its productivity prowess, which is closely linked to the country’s prosperity and long-term standard of living. This is why increasing investment in high-productivity sectors, particularly within natural resources, is an obvious remedy to our productivity challenges.”
And it adds: “Given the natural resources sector’s higher-than-average Indigenous workforce participation, higher wage opportunities can help increase Indigenous employment and economic participation, furthering economic reconciliation efforts by supporting Indigenous-owned businesses, equity partnerships, and employment.”
Economists, business leaders, and the Bank of Canada have highlighted the country’s productivity woes for years—and the level of concern is growing.
As TD Economics pointed out in a worrisome report: “Canadians’ standard of living, as measured by real GDP per person, was lower in 2023 than in 2014.
“Without improved productivity growth, workers will face stagnating wages, and government revenues will not keep pace with spending commitments, requiring higher taxes or reduced public services.”
And: “Over the decade prior to the pandemic, business sector productivity grew at a respectable rate of 1.2% annually. Since 2019, it has ceased to expand at all, setting Canada apart as one of the worst-performing advanced economies, not to mention in stark contrast to the United States…
“The woes are widespread. Relative to growth in the decade prior to the pandemic, only a few service industries have managed to improve their performance… To get the same output, it now requires more hours from workers. Hard to believe this could occur in a digital age.”
Economist Trevor Tombe of the University of Calgary states: “The gap between the Canadian and American economies has now reached its widest point in nearly a century.
“If this continues, we’ll not have persistently seen this wide of a gap since the days of John A. Macdonald… Taking bolder action to address this growing prosperity gap is needed. And fast.
“The U.S. is on track to produce nearly 50 percent more per person than Canada will. This stunning divergence is unprecedented in modern history.”
Earlier this year, Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, gave this warning on our productivity: “You’ve seen those signs that say, ‘In emergency, break glass.’ Well, it’s time to break the glass.”
Rogers said in a Halifax speech: “An economy with low productivity can grow only so quickly before inflation sets in. But an economy with strong productivity can have faster growth, more jobs, and higher wages with less risk of inflation…
“We thought productivity would improve coming out of the pandemic as firms found their footing and workers trained back up. We’ve seen that happen in the US economy, but it hasn’t happened here. In fact, the level of productivity in Canada’s business sector is more or less unchanged from where it was seven years ago.”
It’s beyond time for our federal and provincial governments to get in gear and take steps to help get our productivity back on track.
The Chamber of Commerce’s recommendations would be a good place to start: adopt sensible regulations and stable policies that encourage investment in our natural resources, and speed up the approval of major projects.
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