Alberta
Canada’s Premiers unanimously back Alberta! May result in 1.7 billion dollar rebate from Ottawa.
As the meeting of Canada’s 13 Premier’s and Territorial Leaders wrapped up today in Toronto, Premier Jason Kenney stopped to make a video message for Albertans.
The big issue of the day on Alberta’s agenda was an update to the fiscal stabilization program. Premier Kenney says the Premiers unanimously supported Alberta’s call for a retroactive rebate to the fiscal stabilization program for Alberta. If the Premiers are successful in their approach to the federal government next month, Alberta would stand to pick up over 1.5 Billion dollars. Kenney says the province would use that money to create jobs.
From the Province of Alberta
Premiers back key parts of Alberta’s fair deal plan
All of Canada’s Premiers back key aspects of Alberta’s fair deal plan.
This includes support for retroactive reform of the Fiscal Stabilization Program and changes to the new federal Environmental Impact Act (Bill C-69).
The Premiers agreed the Fiscal Stabilization Program must be strengthened to make it more responsive to economic downturns in resource markets. The agreement came at an extraordinary Council of the Federation meeting in Toronto that was called in the wake of the recent federal election.
The group called for the removal of the per capital equalization cap that prevents Alberta from receiving full payments following sudden declines in revenue. This would add a $1.7-billion retroactive payment going back to 2015-16.
“I am very happy with the progress that we made in our fight for fairness. Just as Alberta has been there to financially support other regions through tough times, the united voice of Premiers across the country is supporting Alberta as we work to bring jobs and investment back to Canada, and secure a fair deal for Albertans.”
Discussions at the Council of the Federation meetings in Toronto focused on subjects vital to Alberta’s economic success and growth, such as streamlining resource project assessments in the federal Environmental Impact Act and getting our energy products to market to expand international trade opportunities.
“Through these meetings, the provinces and territories of Canada have shown we’re willing to stand together on the issues that matter most to Canadians. It’s time for the federal government to step up and show that it’s listening.”
The Council of the Federation, created in 2003, comprises all 13 provincial and territorial Premiers. It promotes provincial-territorial cooperation and closer ties between members, and fosters meaningful relations between governments.
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Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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