Opinion
Canada’s Financial Freefall: When Rosy Rhetoric Meets Hard Reality
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This article is from The Opposition With Dan Knight substack.
The Trudeau Government’s Economic Alchemy: Turning Gold Hopes Into Lead Numbers
Good morning, my fellow Canadians. It’s September 3, 2023, and if you’re expecting to wake up to a bright, financially secure Canada, well, I have some sobering news for you. The latest figures from Statistics Canada are in, and they confirm what many of us have suspected: the Canadian economy is not on the up-and-up. Despite the rosy pictures painted by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minster Chrystia Freeland, the real numbers don’t lie, and they point to an economic landscape in turmoil. Allow me to break it down for you.
The new Statistics Canada data is in, and it paints a rather bleak picture of the Canadian economy under the watchful eyes of the federal government and Justin Trudeau. Let’s delve into some numbers, shall we? A staggering $16.5 billion in debt was added by Canadian households in the first quarter of this year alone, with $11.2 billion being in mortgage debt. In an environment of 5% interest rates, a rate we haven’t seen for over a decade, this is a financial bomb waiting to explode.
And let’s not forget inflation. Since 2021, we’ve seen a cumulative inflation rate of around 16.5%. Now, remember, these aren’t just abstract numbers on a ledger somewhere; these are realities hitting your grocery bills, your gas prices, your rents, and slowly emptying your wallets. But it’s not just households feeling the pinch. The economy as a whole is stalling, with real GDP nearly unchanged in the second quarter of 2023, following a measly 0.6% rise in the first quarter.
Amidst all this, Justin Trudeau and the federal government seem content piling on debt like there’s no tomorrow. The Parliamentary Budget Officer’s March 2023 report shows Canada’s deficit is expected to rise to $43.1 billion in 2023-24, up from $36.5 billion in 2022-23. And let’s not forget that 1 out of every 5 dollars in this debt spree didn’t even exist pre-pandemic. Essentially, we’re spending money we don’t have, to solve problems we’re not solving, all while making new ones.
So, where has all this spending gone? Not into securing a robust future for Canadians, I can tell you that. Despite the monumental deficits and the reckless spending, housing investment fell 2.1% in the second quarter,marking its fifth consecutive quarterly decrease. Canadians are struggling to make ends meet, and the government’s financial imprudence is exacerbating, not alleviating, the situation.
But here’s a twist to the story: while investments in housing decline, Justin Trudeau decided it was prime time to open the floodgates of immigration. There’s an aspect of governance called planning, something that seems foreign to this administration. How does one justify allowing over a million immigrants into Canada without even hinting at a solution for housing them? The result is basic economics – demand outstrips supply, and prices soar.
Remember the days before Trudeau’s reign, when the average home in Canada cost around $400,000? Eight years under his watch and that figure has doubled. Trudeau’s policies seem like a cruel jest to young families, professionals, and, frankly, anyone aspiring to own a piece of the Canadian dream. It’s almost as if he expected the housing market to “balance itself”.
And before you think this is just a ‘rough patch,’ let me remind you that household spending is also slowing. So not only are Canadians going into debt, but they’re also cutting back on spending. They’re being hit from both sides, and there’s no end in sight. The government’s promises of prosperity seem increasingly hollow when we see that per capita household spending has declined in three of the last four quarters.
The Trudeau administration’s approach to governing appears to be in a parallel universe, one where debt is limitless, and financial responsibilities are for the next government or even the next generation to sort out. And don’t even get me started on the higher taxes lurking around the corner to pay off this bonanza of spending. This isn’t governance; it’s financial negligence.
When Canadians were told that this level of inflationary spending could turn our country into something akin to Venezuela, many scoffed at the idea. But let’s face it: the signs are becoming hard to ignore. The truth is, many Canadians have been led to believe they can have gold-plated social services without paying an ounce of gold in taxes. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seemed more than happy to sell that narrative. He promised a utopia, a social safety net woven from dreams and aspirations. But what has that net caught? Rising costs, crippling debt, and a harder life for everyday Canadians.
Trudeau has turned out to be less a responsible steward of the economy and more of a Pied Piper, leading us all off a fiscal cliff while playing a cheerful tune. Or perhaps he’s more like the Cheshire Cat from “Alice in Wonderland,” grinning broadly as he disappears, leaving behind only his grin and a trail of false promises.
As we approach the pivotal year of 2025, don’t forget who sold you this bill of goods. Remember the skyrocketing costs of living, the unmanageable debt, and the empty words that were supposed to make everything better. I, for one, certainly won’t forget. And I suspect, come election time, neither will you.
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armed forces
State of federal finances make NATO spending target very challenging
From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro
Defence Minister Bill Blair recently claimed the federal government could “absolutely” achieve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defence spending target of 2.0 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP—a measure of the size of the economy) by 2027. However, the dismal state of Canada’s finances makes this accelerated timeline very costly to Canadians.
First, some background. In 2014, Canada (along with the other NATO members) formally pledged to increase spending on defence up to a target of 2.0 per cent of GDP by 2024. At the time, Canada spent 1.01 per cent of GDP on defence. A decade has passed and Canada has failed to fulfill that pledge. Indeed, based on the current defence spending plan and the latest GDP projections, Canada’s defence spending is expected to reach just 1.34 per cent of GDP ($41.0 billion) in 2024/25.
Based on the latest spending estimates from NATO, Canada is one of only eight NATO members (out of 31 in total) to spend less than 2.0 per cent of GDP on defence. As the large majority of the alliance has now met the spending target, and President Donald Trump has called for the target to be raised even further to 5 per cent of GDP, Canada will have to dramatically increase defence spending (lest we be at complete odds with our allies).
However, meeting the NATO 2.0 per cent target by 2027/28 would require billions more in annual federal spending (see the following figure).Over the next three years, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO), the federal government will increase defence spending from a projected $41.0 billion in 2024/25 to $53.5 billion in 2027/28—with the majority of this increase occurring in the first year. This means, based on the current plan, Canada’s defence spending would only reach 1.55 per cent of GDP by 2027/28.
To reach 2.0 per cent of GDP in 2027/28, the government would need to spend $68.8 billion on defence during that fiscal year. Assuming the initial jump remains the same, this implies the government would need to increase annual defence spending by $16.5 billion from 2025/26 to 2027/28—$15.3 billion more than currently planned.
The federal government plans to run four consecutive budget deficits from 2024/25 to 2027/28 that add up to $151.9 billion in expected borrowing. In other words, the government already plans to spend more than it collects in revenues. Assuming the government adopts the spending plan shown in the above figure, reaching the NATO target by 2027/28 would require an additional $22.7 billion in borrowing.
Increasing the amount borrowed will impose substantial costs on Canadians. In the near-term it results in higher debt interest payments. Government must pay interest on its debt—same as a family with a mortgage—and rising interest costs leave less money available for programs and services. For perspective, largely due to past borrowing under the Trudeau government, federal debt interest payments are expected to equal all Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues (and then some) in 2024/25. Longer-term, an increase in borrowed money will also burden future generations of taxpayers who will likely face higher taxes to pay for today’s spending.
Clearly, borrowing money to fund higher defence spending will only worsen the state of federal finances, meaning Canada is in a lose-lose situation when it comes to meeting the NATO 2.0 per cent target—risk the consequences of further disappointing our allies or take on billions more in debt.
Instead, Ottawa should identify and cut wasteful spending and use those savings for national defence. Simply put, smaller and smarter government spending could help get Canada out of this lose-lose situation.
Business
Trump’s executive orders represent massive threat to Canadian competitiveness
From the Fraser Institute
Donald Trump had a busy first day back on the job. From his desk in the Oval Office, President Trump signed a suite of executive orders including on energy and regulation, with major implications for Canada. He’s clearly rejected the primacy of a regulatory state (in favour of the legislative state), put a lock on the growth of U.S. regulation, and launched regulatory and cost controls. Essentially this means the U.S. will systemically deregulate while Canada is regulating its economy ever more heavily and broadly, making our economy even less competitive with the U.S.
Trump has also put paid to the fallacy of the great electric vehicle (EV) transition by pulling the plug on the U.S. EV mandate and federal consumer subsidies for EVs. Of course, now that the U.S. will not mandate EVs in large numbers, the massive investments Canada has made in EV and battery technology and manufacturing—on the expectation of selling EV parts and vehicles in the U.S. market—will likely see little return.
Trump’s withdrawal (for a second time) from the Paris climate agreement also puts U.S. policy further at odds with Canada. While Canada will spend huge amounts of money to attempt to comply with its climate commitments under the agreement, and hurt its energy and natural resource sectors in the process, the U.S. will not. In fact, the Trump administration will likely undo many of the things that have been done in the name of implementing the Paris agreement.
Trump‘s declaration of an energy emergency and his call for a massive increase in energy production by is also a direct threat to Canada’s energy economy. As we have seen in the past, the Americans can move very quickly to increase the supply of oil and natural gas when they put their mind to it and when regulations don’t stand in the way. A U.S. energy surge could lead to a flood of oil and gas production pretty quickly, leading the U.S. to need less and less Canadian oil and gas (as Trump has flamboyantly proclaimed).
Trump also wants to expedite energy project reviews and approvals, the exact opposite to the Trudeau government’s approach, which has frustrated the building of new pipelines and other projects. This will facilitate the U.S. ability to increase energy and natural resource production at a pace Canada cannot hope to match.
Simply put, setting aside Trump’s threatened tariffs, his day-one executive orders pose a serious threat to Canada’s energy and natural resource sectors, which remain a vital source of prosperity and revenue, and merit an immediate response from our federal government.
In an ideal world, Canada would harmonize its policy approach to the U.S. on energy and natural resources, which has, in fact, been a historical norm. But unfortunately for Canadians, the Trudeau government will likely reject Trump’s policy reforms and continue its pro-administrative state, anti-energy, anti-resource economic philosophy. And given Prime Minister Trudeau’s recent actions to prorogue Parliament, President Trump’s executive-order barrage won’t face a meaningful Canadian response for months, letting the U.S. steal a massive march on energy, natural resource and regulatory policy reforms over a Canada sitting on its hands.
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