Bruce Dowbiggin
When Analytics Fail Is It Time To Call In Legends?
It seemed only a short while ago that the trend in NHL management was going to toward analytics and new-age concepts of building a Stanley Cup winner. The poster boy for this movement was Kyle Dubas, hired by the Maple Leafs at age 32 to be their general manager. The idea was to take a more empirical approach to winning, eschewing the old sweats of the past.
Dubas, who’d been a GM in the OHL with Sault Ste Marie, represented the ascent of using analytics to determine what makes a team click. It also was a concession to the complications of salary-cap management, the byzantine art of juggling egos and eight-year contracts. It was believed that individuals schooled on that side of the business would be best for the new challenges.
Dubas was not alone in promoting something other than the old “try harder” school of management. Every team made a concession small or large to the new orthodoxy. Needless to say the hockey establishment saw this as a threat to their hegemony in the sport. (Using the term analytics can get you tossed out of a few hockey bars.) Dubas’s firing does not mark the failure of analytics.
Even as they bend a knee to the digital ways of doing business, NHL owners still are fans of the game. Yes, they want the perks in winning. But they also love to hang around the legends of their franchise, guys they grew up idolizing. So when fans get restless, NHL owners often turn to the legendary players of the franchise to take the heat off them.
A classic example covered in our 2015 book Ice Storm was how the hapless Vancouver Canucks, winners of zero Stanley Cups since 1969, pivoted from progressive GM Mike Gillis, who’d taken the team to within a game of the Cup in 2011. When the club failed to advance past the first round in 2012/ 2013, however, owner Francesco Aquilini began taking heat in the market.
A tangled trade controversy with goalie Roberto Longo only exacerbated the tension. When forcing Gillis to hire firebrand coach John Tortorella failed to improve the club’s fortunes, Aquilini handed the GM post to franchise legend Trevor Linden, who had no managerial experience. Since sacking Gillis, the Canucks have failed to make the postseason seven times in nine seasons.
A similar situation has emerged in Calgary where the team canned GM Brad Treliving (who immediately replaced Dubas in Toronto) after missing the playoffs in 2022-23. When given an ultimatum between Treliving and hard-ass coach Darryl Sutter, principal owner Murray Edwards opted to keep Sutter, who had two years left on his contract. When that brainwave went over like a lead balloon in the fan base, the Flames pivoted to hiring Craig Conroy, fan favourite and (here’s a hint) a guy already under contract with the Flames.
The GM shuffle either indicated loyalty to a Flames employee or the fact that Calgary has become a toxic job site in the NHL due to the meddling of its principal owner who flips quarters like manhole covers. Sensing Conroy alone might not be able to placate the base, Flames legend Jarome Iginla was brought in as a special assistant to put a nice face on the floundering Flames.
The genial Iginla has no managerial experience, and new rookie coach Ryan Huska is not going to enjoy Iginla breathing over his shoulder— no matter how pleasant a guy the Hall of Fame is. But if this uncomfortable management structure buys peace for the owner (who principally lives in Switzerland these days) then it will be seen as a success in the owners’ box.
Making the Calgary situation more perilous, the other owners are aging, no one locally is a natural candidate to spend the billion dollars it takes to run an NHL club, and the Flames new arena is still, at best, three or four years away. Good luck. So they’re hiring at discount prices.
Calgary is hardly alone. In Philadelphia, Flyers hero Daniel Briere has been handed the job of resurrecting the proud franchise. The Flyers have missed the playoffs the last three seasons, and so Briere has carte blanche (for now) to blow things up in Philly. He’s got two first-round picks at the moment and has done a three-team trade. So he’s been active. Adding ex-Flyer legend John LeClair is another attempt to placate fans.
Briere says, “We’re going to try to make things happen”. But the question is, how long will the faithful remember Briere the Hero when the current team is a mess on the ice? Former heroes don’t like their reputations tarnished by making the wrong moves.
Mike Grier is another former fan favourite, this time in San Jose, where he took over the GM job from longtime stalwart Doug Wilson. Grier hired his old college buddy David Quinn to coach the toothless Sharks, but you know his stale date is coming soon if San Jose doesn’t get moving fast. Ditto for former-stars-turned GMs Chris Drury (New York Rangers) and Rob Blake (L.A. Kings).
Joe Sakic is one legend-turned-general-manager who did succeed, taking over the Colorado Avalanche is 2014 and helping to guide them to a Stanley Cup in 2022. Sakic was aided by taking over the Avs at their lowest point, which earned them superstars like Nathan McKinnon and Cale Makar in the draft. He won the GM of the year in 2022 and has now moved out of the GM chair.
Red Wings legend and current GM Steve Yzerman is unique, having built the Tampa Bay Lightning into Stanley Cup winners before returning to Detroit to resuscitate the pitiful Red Wings, who’ve gone from model NHL franchise between 1990-2017 to seven straight playoff misses since. It would take something monumental for the Detroit fanbase to turn on Yzerman, but there is an expectation that he needs success— soon.
So analytics may not have conquered the NHL as yet, but summoning team legends still has its fans in owners desperate to have someone else to blame.
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Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his new book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via http://brucedowbigginbooks.ca/book-personalaccount.aspx
Bruce Dowbiggin
Hero Or Villain: How Chrystia Freeland Wears Both Masks
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
This Ernest Hemingway gem from The Sun Also Rises has gotten a workout in this time of progressive economic policy. But it’s worth repeating in the case of Justin Trudeau’s Canada where the F word is fiscal. The “gradually” part of Liberal fiscal policy has now passed. Leaving the “suddenly” of $60 B deficits with no plan for recovery
You’d think that missing your deficit estimate by $40B might have cost the finance minister Chrystia Freeland her job. But no! In Trudeaupia it was the failure of Freeland to embrace even more wack-a-doodle spending plans by the prime minister and his brain trust of former groomsmen and climate acolytes. Yes, the cratering of finances is the ideal time to award a GST holiday and $250 cheques to much of the nation. It has been noticed.
You know how Canadians are always bitter that America pays no attention to Canada? (Doug Ford appeared Tuesday on @CNN which identified him as Premier of “Ontaria”.) Well, the Collapse By The Canal in Ottawa has brought much attention to the nation. Specifically, president-elect Donald Trump, the Shecky Green of presidents, has noticed the chaos. ““The Great State of Canada is stunned as the Finance Minister resigns, or was fired, from her position by Governor Justin Trudeau,” Trump wrote, using his barb that Trudeau is not a PM but a lowly governor.
Adding for good measure, that Freeland’s “behavior was totally toxic, and not at all conducive to making deals which are good for the very unhappy citizens of Canada… She will not be missed!!!” Three exclamation points if you get that far.
Certainly no-one with a memory longer than two weeks will miss the deputy PM who gleefully wiped out the personal finances and freedoms of the Freedom Convoy truckers. Or the cabinet minister who promoted a standing O in the Commons for a former Nazi soldier. Or the senior government official who demanded legal restrictions against voters shouting at her in public.
Or the feminist who stood aside while her boss Trudeau expelled an indigenous female finance minister for allowing the RCMP to investigate PMJT’s nefarious activities on behalf of his donors. Or who… never mind. Just look up Blackface.
No, the current version of Freeland is the plucky woman who was fired on a Zoom call by a man. A woman of integrity who then sent off a stinging letter of resignation in which she revealed she was being pushed aside for a Trudeau buddy Mark Carney. A fiscal warrior who resisted going $60B in the red (she was cool at $40B, however). And, BTW, could she please deliver the government’s financial statement before she’s fired?
See how it works? She’s now a victim. “She didn’t just quit. She said ‘f**k you’ to Trudeau on the way out.” This is another case of somethingvblogger Melissa Chen calls Schrödinger’s Feminist, defined as a woman who is simultaneously a victim and empowered. Until something happens and she collapses into one of either states, whichever is politically expedient for her circumstance.
Chen expands on the notion. “A major component of the angst that characterizes much of the modern dynamics between men and women today comes down to the fact that women have demanded equal rights but also wish for preferred treatment.” A week’s viewing of The View will serve to illustrate this concept.
One of The View’s textbook cases of Schrödinger’s Feminist was Kamala Harris. The treatment of the defeated Democratic Party presidential candidate was guard-railed between her brave quest to become America’s first menstruating president and, on the other side, her victim status as a woman, the unfair way she was treated. It was enough to make Joy Behar’s head spin.
Forget that everyone in the mainstream media from pollsters to networks to Hollywood stars was all-in on Kamala as a “joyful “warrior. Even though they knew she was losing they cooked the polls the whole way for her. She was a victim, the kind Hillary Clinton meant when she said all women should be believed if they’re trying to destroy Justice Kavanaugh. Or, like serial fabulist E. Jean Carroll, waiting 30 years to bankrupt Trump and disqualify him from the presidential race, with a Law & Order script. How could a woman ever invent a story about getting trapped in a change room at Bergdorf Goodman with Trump?
Oh, Kamala played the brave front as she blundered to her record defeat. (Still called “a perfect campaign” by her apologists.) But underpinning it all was her status as a woman, a woman for whom her followers on The View demanded a double standard. In the end, only the Schrödinger feminists in the Dems coalition stayed loyal to Harris, (Kamala Harris Did A Good Job!) explaining away her failure to tell the world that Joe Biden was koo-koo for Coco Puffs as her innate decency.
And so Freeland, too, is being gifted with Schrödinger’s Feminism. Having Justin Trudeau, the Trust Fund twit, as your antagonist sure helps. So does the Woke media corps now in Ottawa painting sympathetic portraits of your sacrifice. Your dubious resumé since donning Liberal colours is forgotten. You will receive the get out of jail free card .
Hell, even the leader of the opposition will give you a tongue bath. “Instead of taking responsibility, the prime minister told her that she should take all the blame,” Pierre Poilievre said. “The good old boys in the back room would protect themselves and make the then-finance minister take all the blame.” Trudeau, who rejects bankers in favour of poets, will take the fall.
Which summons up this nugget from F. Scott Fitzgerald. “Life is a comedy for those who think and a tragedy for those who feel. Show me a hero and I will write you a tragedy.”
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
Bruce Dowbiggin
MLB’s Exploding Chequebook: Parity Is Now For Suckers
MLB has seen parity and proclaimed, “We don’t give a damn!” Okay, they didn’t say that. In fact they insist the opposite is true. They’re all about competition and smaller markets getting a shot at a title. But as the 2024 offseason spending shows, believe none of what you hear and half of what you see in MLB.
Here’s the skinny: Juan Soto‘s contract with the NY Mets — 15 years and guaranteeing $765 million, not a penny of which is deferred. Max Fried signed an eight-year, $218 million deal with the New York Yankees. Later, Nathan Eovaldi secured a three-year, $75 million contract to return to the Texas Rangers. Blake Snell (five years, $182 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers) and Matthew Boyd (two years, $29 million with the Chicago Cubs) added to the splurge.
There’s one more thing that stands out. MLB has no trouble with the financial big boys in New York, Los Angles, Texas, Toronto, Atlanta and Chicago shelling out money no small market dare pay. In the MLB cheap seats, Tampa, Pittsburgh and Miami can’t send out quality players fast enough. But MLB is cool with that, too, as those paupers get a healthy slice of TV money.
So yes, they’re all about talking parity with their luxury tax system. But to keep the TV, digital, betting and marketing lucre flowing they have to have large media markets swinging the heaviest bats come postseason. The question is, do MLB fans care the way they used to about parity? It says here they don’t. More want to seed best-on-best more often. Which is brutal but refreshing.
Their sister leagues, married to draconian salary cap systems, are still pushing parity, even as they expand beyond recognition. In our 2004 book Money Players, legendary Boston Bruins coach/ GM Harry Sinden noted, “The problem with teams in the league, is that there were (then) 20 teams who all think they are going to win the Stanley Cup and they all are going to share it. But only one team is going to win it. The rest are chasing a rainbow.”
And that was before the expansion Vegas Golden Knights won a Cup within five years while the third-year Seattle Kraken made a run in those same 2023 playoffs. There are currently 32 teams in the league, each chasing Sinden’s rainbow of a Stanley Cup. That means 31 cranky fan bases every year. And 31 management teams trying to avoid getting fired.
Maybe we’ve reached peak franchise level? Uh, no. Not so long as salary-capped leagues can use the dream of parity to sell more franchises. As we wrote in October of 2023, “If you believe the innuendo coming from commissioner Gary Bettman there is a steady appetite for getting a piece of the NHL operation. “The best answer I can give you is that we have continuous expressions of interest from places like Houston, Atlanta, Quebec City, Salt Lake City, but expansion isn’t on the agenda.” In the next breath Bettman was predicting that any new teams will cost “A lot, a lot.”
Deputy commissioner Bill Daly echoed Bettman’s caution about a sudden expansion but added, ”Having said that, particularly with the success of the Vegas and Seattle expansions, there are more people who want to own professional hockey teams.” Translation: If the NHL can get a billion for a new team, the heck with competitive excellence, the clock might start ticking sooner. After all, small-market Ottawa just went for $950.”
It’s not just the expansion-obsessed NHL talking more teams. MLB is looking to add franchises. Abandoned Montreal is once more getting palpitations over rumours that the league wants to return to the city that lost its Expos in 2005. Recent reports indicate that while MLB might prefer Salt Lake City and Nashville it also feels it must right the wrong left when the Expos moved to Washington DC 19 years ago.
The city needs a new ballpark to replace disastrous Olympic Stadium. They’ll also need more than Tom Brady to fund the franchise fee and operating costs. And Quebec corporate support— always transitory in the Expos years— will need to be strong. But two more MLB franchises within five years is a lock.
While the NBA is mum on going past 30 teams it has not shut the door on expansion after seeing the NHL cashing in. Neither has the cash-generating monster known as the NFL where teams currently sell for over six billion US. The NFL is eyeing Europe for its next moves.
The question that has to be asked in this is, WTF, quality of competition? The more teams in a league the lower the chances of even getting to a semifinal series let alone a championship. Fans in cities starved for a championship— the NFL’s Detroit Lions or Cleveland Browns are entering their seventh decade without a title or the Toronto Maple Leafs title-less since 1967— know how corrosive it can be.
Getting to 34, 36, maybe 40 teams makes for a short-term score for owners, but it could leave leagues with an entire strata of loser teams that no one—least of all networks, carriers and advertisers—wants to see. Generations of fans will be like Canuck supporters, going their entire lives without a championship.
In addition, as we’ve argued in our 2018 book Cap In Hand: How Salary Caps Are Killing Pro Sports and How The Free Market Can Save Them, watering down the product with a lot of teams no one wants to watch nationally or globally seems counter productive. The move away from quality toward quantity serves only the gambling industry. But since when has Gary Bettman Truly cared about quality of the product? So long as he gets to say, “We have a trade to announce” at the Draft, he’s a happy guy.
When we published Cap In Hand we proposed a system like soccer with ranked divisions using promotion and relegation to ensure competition, not parity. Most of the interviewers we spoke to were skeptical of the idea. But as MLB steams closer to economic Darwinism our proposal is looking more credible every day. Play at the level you can afford. Or just watch Ted Lasso. Your choice.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
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