Bruce Dowbiggin
When Analytics Fail Is It Time To Call In Legends?

It seemed only a short while ago that the trend in NHL management was going to toward analytics and new-age concepts of building a Stanley Cup winner. The poster boy for this movement was Kyle Dubas, hired by the Maple Leafs at age 32 to be their general manager. The idea was to take a more empirical approach to winning, eschewing the old sweats of the past.
Dubas, who’d been a GM in the OHL with Sault Ste Marie, represented the ascent of using analytics to determine what makes a team click. It also was a concession to the complications of salary-cap management, the byzantine art of juggling egos and eight-year contracts. It was believed that individuals schooled on that side of the business would be best for the new challenges.
Dubas was not alone in promoting something other than the old “try harder” school of management. Every team made a concession small or large to the new orthodoxy. Needless to say the hockey establishment saw this as a threat to their hegemony in the sport. (Using the term analytics can get you tossed out of a few hockey bars.) Dubas’s firing does not mark the failure of analytics.
Even as they bend a knee to the digital ways of doing business, NHL owners still are fans of the game. Yes, they want the perks in winning. But they also love to hang around the legends of their franchise, guys they grew up idolizing. So when fans get restless, NHL owners often turn to the legendary players of the franchise to take the heat off them.
A classic example covered in our 2015 book Ice Storm was how the hapless Vancouver Canucks, winners of zero Stanley Cups since 1969, pivoted from progressive GM Mike Gillis, who’d taken the team to within a game of the Cup in 2011. When the club failed to advance past the first round in 2012/ 2013, however, owner Francesco Aquilini began taking heat in the market.
A tangled trade controversy with goalie Roberto Longo only exacerbated the tension. When forcing Gillis to hire firebrand coach John Tortorella failed to improve the club’s fortunes, Aquilini handed the GM post to franchise legend Trevor Linden, who had no managerial experience. Since sacking Gillis, the Canucks have failed to make the postseason seven times in nine seasons.
A similar situation has emerged in Calgary where the team canned GM Brad Treliving (who immediately replaced Dubas in Toronto) after missing the playoffs in 2022-23. When given an ultimatum between Treliving and hard-ass coach Darryl Sutter, principal owner Murray Edwards opted to keep Sutter, who had two years left on his contract. When that brainwave went over like a lead balloon in the fan base, the Flames pivoted to hiring Craig Conroy, fan favourite and (here’s a hint) a guy already under contract with the Flames.
The GM shuffle either indicated loyalty to a Flames employee or the fact that Calgary has become a toxic job site in the NHL due to the meddling of its principal owner who flips quarters like manhole covers. Sensing Conroy alone might not be able to placate the base, Flames legend Jarome Iginla was brought in as a special assistant to put a nice face on the floundering Flames.
The genial Iginla has no managerial experience, and new rookie coach Ryan Huska is not going to enjoy Iginla breathing over his shoulder— no matter how pleasant a guy the Hall of Fame is. But if this uncomfortable management structure buys peace for the owner (who principally lives in Switzerland these days) then it will be seen as a success in the owners’ box.

CALGARY, CANADA – MARCH 3: Jarome Iginla #12 of the Calgary Flames jumps over the boards to start his shift during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at the Scotiabank Saddledome on March 3, 2013 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Making the Calgary situation more perilous, the other owners are aging, no one locally is a natural candidate to spend the billion dollars it takes to run an NHL club, and the Flames new arena is still, at best, three or four years away. Good luck. So they’re hiring at discount prices.
Calgary is hardly alone. In Philadelphia, Flyers hero Daniel Briere has been handed the job of resurrecting the proud franchise. The Flyers have missed the playoffs the last three seasons, and so Briere has carte blanche (for now) to blow things up in Philly. He’s got two first-round picks at the moment and has done a three-team trade. So he’s been active. Adding ex-Flyer legend John LeClair is another attempt to placate fans.
Briere says, “We’re going to try to make things happen”. But the question is, how long will the faithful remember Briere the Hero when the current team is a mess on the ice? Former heroes don’t like their reputations tarnished by making the wrong moves.
Mike Grier is another former fan favourite, this time in San Jose, where he took over the GM job from longtime stalwart Doug Wilson. Grier hired his old college buddy David Quinn to coach the toothless Sharks, but you know his stale date is coming soon if San Jose doesn’t get moving fast. Ditto for former-stars-turned GMs Chris Drury (New York Rangers) and Rob Blake (L.A. Kings).
Joe Sakic is one legend-turned-general-manager who did succeed, taking over the Colorado Avalanche is 2014 and helping to guide them to a Stanley Cup in 2022. Sakic was aided by taking over the Avs at their lowest point, which earned them superstars like Nathan McKinnon and Cale Makar in the draft. He won the GM of the year in 2022 and has now moved out of the GM chair.
Red Wings legend and current GM Steve Yzerman is unique, having built the Tampa Bay Lightning into Stanley Cup winners before returning to Detroit to resuscitate the pitiful Red Wings, who’ve gone from model NHL franchise between 1990-2017 to seven straight playoff misses since. It would take something monumental for the Detroit fanbase to turn on Yzerman, but there is an expectation that he needs success— soon.
So analytics may not have conquered the NHL as yet, but summoning team legends still has its fans in owners desperate to have someone else to blame.
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Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his new book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via http://brucedowbigginbooks.ca/book-personalaccount.aspx
2025 Federal Election
Will Four More Years Of Liberals Prove The West’s Tipping Point?

The 1997 political comedy Wag The Dog featured a ruling president far behind in the polls engaging Hollywood to rescue his failing ratings. By inventing a fake war against Albania and a left-behind “hero”— nicknamed Shoe— the Hollywood producer creates a narrative that sweeps the nation.
The meme of hanging old shoes from the branches of trees and power lines catches on and re-elects the president. In a plot kicker, the vain producer is killed by the president’s handlers when he refuses to stay quiet about his handiwork. The movie’s cynicism over political spin made it a big hit in the Bill Clinton/ Monica Lewinsky days.

In the recent 2024 election the Democrats thought they’d resurrect the WTD formula to spin off senile Joe Biden at the last minute in favour of Kamala Harris. Americans saw through the obvious charade and installed Donald Trump instead.
You’d think that would be enough to dissuade Canadians who pride themselves on their hip, postmodern humour. But you’d be wrong, they don’t get the joke. Wag The Carney is the current political theatre as Liberals bury the reviled Justin Trudeau and pivot to Mark Carney. If you believe the polling it might just be working on a public besotted by ex-pat Mike Myers and “Canada’s Not For Sale”.
As opposed to Wag The Dog, few are laughing about this performative theatre, however. There are still two debates (English/ French) and over three more weeks of campaign where anything— hello Paul Chiang—can happen. But with Laurentian media bribed by the Libs— Carney is threatening those who stray— people are already projecting what another four years of Liberals in office will mean.
As the most prominent outlier to Team Canada’s “we will fight them on the beaches…” Alberta’s premier Danielle Smith is already steering a course for her province that doesn’t include going to war with America on energy. She asked Trump to delay his tariffs until Canadians had a chance to speak on the subject in an election April 28. Naturally the howler monkeys of the Left accused her of treason. She got her wish Wednesday when Canada was spared any new tariffs for the time being.

Clearly, she (and Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe) have no illusions about Carney not using their energy industry as a whipping post for his EU climate schemes. They’ve seen the cynical flip in polls as former Trudeau loyalists hurry back to the same Liberal party they abandoned in 2024. They know Carney can manipulate the Boomer demographic just as he did when he called for draconian financial methods against the peaceful Truckers Convoy in 2022.
Former Reform leader Preston Manning is unequivocal: “’Large numbers of Westerners simply will not stand for another four years of Liberal government, no matter who leads it.’“ So how does the West respond within Confederation to protect itself from a predatory Ottawa elite?
Clearly, the emissions cap— part of Carney’s radical environmental plans— will keep Alberta’s treasure in the ground. With Carney repeating no cancellation of Bill C-69 that precludes building pipelines in the future, the momentum for a referendum in Alberta will only grow. The NDP will howl, but there will be enough push among from the rest of Albertans for a new approach within Canada.
In this vein Smith even wants to approach Quebec. While it seems like odd bedfellows the two provinces most at odds with the status quo have much in common . “This is an area where our two provinces may be able to coordinate an approach,” Smith wrote this week. That could include referendums by the middle of 2026.
Perhaps the best recipe for keeping the increasingly fractious union together is a devolution of power, not unlike that governing the United Kingdom. While Westminster remains the central power since 1997, there are now separate parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland that put power closer to the citizen, so that local factors are better recognized in decision making.
With so little uniting the regions of the country any longer, devolution might provide a solution. What form could decentralization take within Canada? A Western Canada Parliament could blunt predatory federal energy policies while countering the imbalances of Canada’s equalization process. Similar parliaments representing Quebec, the Atlantic provinces, Ontario and B.C. would protect their own special interests within Canada. Ottawa could handle Canada’s international obligations to defence, trade and international cooperation.
While the idea is fraught with pitfalls it nonetheless remains preferable to a breakup of the nation, which four more years of Liberals rule under Mark Carney and the same Trudeau characters will likely precipitate. Smith’s outreach case would be the beginning of such a process.
None of this would be necessary were the populations of Eastern Canada and B.C.’s lower mainland remotely serious after snoozing through the Trudeau decade. The OECD shows Canada’s 1.4% GDP barely ahead of Luxembourg and behind the rest of the industrialized world from 2015-2025. As we’ve said before the Boomers sitting on their $1 million-plus homes are re-staging Woodstock on the Canada Pension and OAS. As with Wag The Dog, they’re not getting the joke.

When the Boomers award themselves another four years of taxapalooza and Mike Myers and the other “Canada Not For For Sale” celebs head south to their tax-avoidance schemes how will the Boomers say they’ve left Canada better off for anyone under 60? We’ll hang up and listen to your answer on the TV.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
Bruce Dowbiggin
Are the Jays Signing Or Declining? Only Vladdy & Bo Know For Sure

We were watching the Los Angeles Dodgers home opener on Thursday. The defending World Series champs came from behind to beat Detroit 5-4. The big hit was a three-run homer from a player named Teoscar Hernandez off AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal

If that name sounds familiar, Teoscar was a Toronto Blue Jay from 2018-2022. He pounded 121 homers in the span as part of the Jays’ order. But when Toronto decided it needed bullpen help he was traded to Seattle in 2022 for pitchers Erik Swanson and Adam Macko. While Swanson has battled injuries and Macko is no-go, Hernandez keeps pounding the ball.
In his one year in Seattle he had strikeout problems but did hit 26 homers with 93 RBIs. In the winter of 2023-24 he signed as a free agent with the aforementioned Dodgers. Batting behind Shohei Ohtani he launched 33 homers and 99 RBIs. He won the All Star Home Run Derby. His key hit in Game 5 of the World Series propelled L.A. to the title. The stacked Dodgers liked him enough to give him a three-year, $66 million contract.
Why are we telling you this? Because the Blue Jays also started their 2025 season at home, matched against the Baltimore Orioles. And while there are reasons to believe the Jays will not replicate their 74-win disaster of 2024, there remain the old bugaboos of injuries and pitching. In the four games against the division rivals they need to beat, Jays’ pitching gave up 24 runs while scoring 18—nine of them in one game.
The splashy acquisition of 40 year old HOF pitcher Max Scherzer has already gone sideways as a bad thumb has put him on the IL. The new stopper, Jeff Hoffman, was rejected on medical grounds by two other teams before Toronto’s money made him healthy. The rest of the bullpen— a disaster in 2024— got off to a rocky start with Orioles hitters playing BP against them. They’ve already DFA’d one pitcher and called up two more from the minors. The re-made pen performed well in Game 4, but how it holds up in their next 158 games is a mystery.
On offence, while their rivals in Boston and New York added sexy pieces to their rosters the Jays were only able to acquire veteran switch-hitting Baltimore slugger Anthony Santander. More typical of their other signees is ex-Cleveland 2B infielder Andres Giminez who in 2023 had the lowest average exit velocity of all AL batters (84.8 mph), and led the AL in percentage of balls that were softly hit (21.7%). He does play a slick second base.
The winter story line for the Jays offence was what to do about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, the erstwhile star-dust twins who were— along with Cavan Biggio— supposed to guarantee titles when they emerged in 2019. Biggio is gone, so the other two carry the credibility of the management team of Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins. From the outside the Jays seem paralyzed to act.

While the Jays dithered, the price for players like Guerrero and Bichette soared. Using Juan Soto’s Mets $765 M deal as a yardstick Guerrero turned down a Jays offer of just under $600 M, saying he was done talking during the season. If Shapiro/ Atkins had anticipated the market Guerrero would have cost a lot less in 2023-24. If there is no progress by the trading deadline the Jays will be forced to get what they can in a trade.
Shortstop Bichette— a gifted player who battled injuries in 2024—is likewise up for a new deal. He has started strong in 2025 and would command a handsome return in a trade. He says the Jays are waiting to see what happens with Guerrero first. Having sold the pair for years to their loyal fans, having to trade them will be a massive PR blow. And while Jays’ national audience can be an advantage, having a whole country pissed with you is devastating.
The rest of the secret sauce for a Toronto comeback revolves around one of their hitting prospects taking a step forward. Any/ all of Will Wagner, Alan Roden, Addison Barger or Leo Jimenez can have a job if they show their bats are for real. Otherwise Shapiro and Atkins will hope that Dalton Varsho, George Springer and Alejandro Kirk can find a little magic in their aging bats.
A failure to retain talent may prompt fans to recall that Rogers decided that Shapiro and Atkins, who dumped Teoscar, were worthy replacements for the previous GM who’d walked away. The man Schneider and Atkins were hired to improve upon— Canadian Alex Anthopoulos— has made the Atlanta Braves a dominant team. Since AA moved to Atlanta they’ve won 90, 97, 38 (Covid year), 88, 101, 104, 109, 89 games. They’ve won a World Series and two other playoff series. They won six straight NL East titles before injuries sank them last year.
The Braves have developed young everyday superstars like Ronald Acuńa Jr. who don’t get picked off second base. They have built a pitching staff largely from within, not splashy FA signings. They have swagger without cockiness. They are set for years to come.
The Blue Jays? Since AA left they’ve won 73, 67, 32 (Covid), 91, 92, 89, 74 games. They’ve won zero postseason games while missing the playoffs in four seasons. The players they traded are starring for other teams in the postseason. They are again employing an inexperienced company guy as manager.
While it’s true that the sun can’t shine on the same team every day, Jays fans believe it would be nice if the great orb would find their club as it did back in the 1992/93 World Series days. Instead of the reflected glory of past stars winning for other teams. Patience is thin. And time is ticking.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
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