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What does a Trump presidency means for Canadian energy?

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8 minute read

From Resource Works

Heather-Exner Pirot of the Business Council of Canada and the Macdonald-Laurier Institute spoke with Resource Works about the transition to Donald Trump’s energy policy, hopes for Keystone XL’s revival, EVs, and more. 

Do you think it is accurate to say that Trump’s energy policy will be the complete opposite of Joe Biden’s? Or will it be more nuanced than that?

It’s more nuanced than that. US oil and gas production did grow under Biden, as it did under Obama. It’s actually at record levels right now. The US is producing the most oil and gas per day that any nation has ever produced in the history of the world.

That said, the federal government in the US has imposed relatively little control over production. In the absence of restrictive emissions and climate policies that we have in Canada, most of the oil production decisions have been made based on market forces. With prices where they’re at currently, there’s not a lot of shareholder appetite to grow that significantly.

The few areas you can expect change: leasing more federal lands and off shore areas for oil and gas development; rescinding the pause in LNG export permits; eliminating the new methane fee; and removing Biden’s ambitious vehicle fuel efficiency standards, which would subsequently maintain gas demand.

I would say on nuclear energy, there won’t be a reversal, as that file has earned bipartisan support. If anything, a Trump Admin would push regulators to approve SMRs models and projects faster. They want more of all kinds of energy.

Is Keystone XL a dead letter, or is there enough planning and infrastructure still in-place to restart that project?

I haven’t heard any appetite in the private sector to restart that in the short term. I know Alberta is pushing it. I do think it makes sense for North American energy security – energy dominance, as the Trump Admin calls – and I believe there is a market for more Canadian oil in the USA; it makes economic sense. But it’s still looked at as too politically risky for investors.

To have it move forward I think you would need some government support to derisk it. A TMX model, even. And clear evidence of social license and bipartisan support so it can survive the next election on both sides of the border.

Frankly, Northern Gateway is the better project for Canada to restart, under a Conservative government.

Keystone XL was cancelled by Biden prior to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Do you think that the reshoring/friendshoring of the energy supply is a far bigger priority now?

It absolutely is a bigger priority. But it’s also a smaller threat. You need to appreciate that North America has become much more energy independent and secure than it has ever been. Both US and Canada are producing at record levels. Combined, we now produce more than the Middle East (41 million boe/d vs 38 million boe/d). And Canada has taken a growing share of US imports (now 60%) even as their import levels have declined.

But there are two risks on the horizon: the first is that oil is a non renewable resource and the US is expected to reach a peak in shale oil production in the next few years. No one wants to go back to the days when OPEC + had dominant market power. I think there will be a lot of demand for Canadian oil to fill the gap left by any decline in US oil production. And Norway’s production is expected to peak imminently as well.

The second is the need from our allies for LNG. Europe is still dependent on Russia for natural gas, energy demand is growing in Asia, and high industrial energy costs are weighing on both. More and cheaper LNG from North America is highly important for the energy security of our allies, and thus the western alliance as it faces a challenge from Russia, China and Iran.

Canada has little choice but to follow the US lead on many issues such as EVs and tariffs on China. Regarding energy policy, does Canada’s relative strength in the oil and gas sector give it a stronger hand when it comes to having an independent energy policy?

I don’t think we want an independent energy policy. I would argue we both benefit from alignment and interdependence. And we’ve built up that interdependence on the infrastructure side over decades: pipelines, refineries, transmission, everything.

That interdependence gives us a stronger hand in other areas of the economy. Any tariffs on Canadian energy would absolutely not be in American’s interests in terms of their energy dominance agenda. Trump wants to drop energy costs, not hike them.

I think we can leverage tariff exemptions in energy to other sectors, such as manufacturing, which is more vulnerable. But you have to make the case for why that makes sense for US, not just Canada. And that’s because we need as much industrial capacity in the west as we can muster to counter China and Russia. America First is fine, but this is not the time for America Alone.

Do you see provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan being more on-side with the US than the federal government when it comes to energy?

Of course. The North American capital that is threatening their economic interests is not Washington DC; it’s Ottawa.

I think you are seeing some recognition – much belated and fast on the heels of an emissions cap that could shut in over 2 million boe of production! – that what makes Canada important to the United States and in the world is our oil and gas and uranium and critical minerals and agricultural products.

We’ve spent almost a decade constraining those sectors. There is no doubt a Trump Admin will be complicated, but at the very least it’s clarified how important those sectors are to our soft and hard power.

It’s not too late for Canada to flex its muscles on the world stage and use its resources to advance our national interests, and our allies’ interests. In fact, it’s absolutely critical that we do so.

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Energy

Trump Takes More Action To Get Government Out Of LNG’s Way

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By David Blackmon

The Trump administration moved this week to eliminate another Biden-era artificial roadblock to energy infrastructure development which is both unneeded and counterproductive to U.S. energy security.

In April 2023, Biden’s Department of Energy, under the hyper-politicized leadership of Secretary Jennifer Granholm, implemented a new policy requiring LNG projects to begin exports within seven years of receiving federal approval. Granholm somewhat hilariously claimed the policy was aimed at ensuring timely development and aligning with climate goals by preventing indefinite delays in energy projects that could impact emissions targets.

This claim was rendered incredibly specious just 8 months later, when Granholm aligned with then-President Joe Biden’s “pause” in permitting for new LNG projects due to absurd fears such exports might actually create higher emissions than coal-fired power plants. The draft study that served as the basis for the pause was thoroughly debunked within a few months, yet Granholm and the White House steadfastly maintained their ruse for a full year until Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20 and reversed Biden’s order.

Certainly, any company involved in the development of a major LNG export project wants to proceed to first cargoes as expeditiously as possible. After all, the sooner a project starts generating revenues, the more rapid the payout becomes, and the higher the returns on investments. That’s the whole goal of entering this high-growth industry. Just as obviously, unforeseen delays in the development process can lead to big cost overruns that are the bane of any major infrastructure project.

On the other hand, these are highly complex, capital-intensive projects that are subject to all sorts of delay factors. As developers experienced in recent years, disruptions in supply chains caused by factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in major delays and cost overruns in projects in every facet of the economy.

Developers in the LNG industry have argued that this arbitrary timeline was too restrictive, citing these and other factors that can extend beyond seven years. Trump, responding to these concerns and his campaign promises to bolster American energy dominance, moved swiftly to eliminate this requirement. On Tuesday, Reuters reported that the U.S. was set to rescind this policy, freeing LNG projects from the rigid timeline and potentially accelerating their completion.

This policy reversal could signal a broader approach to infrastructure under Trump. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, enacted in 2021, allocated $1.2 trillion to rebuild roads, bridges, broadband and other critical systems, with funds intended to be awarded over five years, though some projects naturally extend beyond that due to construction timelines. The seven-year LNG deadline was a specific energy-related constraint, but Trump’s administration has shown a willingness to pause or redirect Biden-era infrastructure funding more generally. For instance, Trump’s Jan.20 executive order, “Unleashing American Energy,” directed agencies to halt disbursements under the IIJA and IRA pending a 90-day review, raising questions about whether similar time-bound restrictions across infrastructure sectors might also be loosened or eliminated.

Critics argue that scrapping deadlines risks stalling projects indefinitely, undermining the urgency Biden sought to instill in modernizing U.S. infrastructure. Supporters argue that developers already have every profit-motivated incentive to proceed as rapidly as possible and see the elimination of this restriction as a pragmatic adjustment, allowing flexibility for states and private entities to navigate permitting, labor shortages and supply chain issues—challenges that have persisted into 2025.

For example, the $294 billion in unawarded IIJA funds, including $87.2 billion in competitive grants, now fall under Trump’s purview, and his more energy-focused administration could prioritize projects aligned with his energy and economic goals over Biden’s climate and DEI-focused initiatives.

Ultimately, Trump’s decision to end the seven-year LNG deadline exemplifies his intent to reshape infrastructure policy by prioritizing speed, flexibility and industry needs. Whether this extends formally to all U.S. infrastructure projects remains unclear, but seems likely given the Trump White House’s stated objectives and priorities.

This move also clearly aligns with the overall Trump philosophy of getting the government out of the way, allowing the markets to work and freeing the business community to restore American Energy Dominance in the most expeditious way possible.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ – Good News for Canadian Energy and Great News for WCSB Natural Gas

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By Maureen McCall

April 2 was ‘Liberation Day’ according to U.S. President Donald Trump.  While the announcement of U.S. reciprocal tariffs was not good news for many countries, Trump’s announcement also had some good news for Canadian Energy companies – 0% tariffs.  Some tariffs against Canada are still in place, but for now, no energy sector tariffs against Canada underscores the importance of Canadian energy to the Trump administration.

President Trump announced new tariffs on April 2nd, which he dubbed “Liberation Day” with a 10% baseline tariff for all U.S. trading partners, to go into effect on April 5th. He also announced more reciprocal tariffs against the “worst offenders,” which will go into effect on April 9th but no tariffs on Canadian energy were announced.

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Announcement

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith celebrated the win which she says is precisely what she has been advocating for from the U.S. Administration for months.

“The United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian Federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. Administration. It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including 0% tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and a host of other Canadian goods.”

This is great news for Canadian energy producers, especially natural gas producers who are experiencing dramatic growth in the Montney.

At this year’s S&P Global CERAWeek, Mike Verney, Executive Vice-President of petroleum reserves with McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. had great news for Canadian companies.

McDaniel’s study, commissioned by the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER), reported data indicating that Alberta has proven natural gas reserves of 130 trillion cubic feet (TCF), compared to previous provincial estimates of only 24 TCF. According to the study, if probable gas reserves are added in, the overall figure is 144 TCF.

As reported in the Financial Post, Verney said “We’re growing like mad in the Montney. The major natural gas plays in the U.S. are actually declining versus the Montney that is actually growing.”

This message was echoed by Michael Rose, the Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Tourmaline Oil,  Canada’s largest natural gas producer during his keynote address at the SPE Canadian Energy Technology Conference and Exhibition last month in Calgary.

Not a Sunset Industry

Michael Rose – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Tourmaline Oil

Rose opened his keynote speech with optimism saying: “This is not a sunset industry- it is closer to sunrise than sunset” and spoke about Canada’s compelling opportunity for natural gas production as well as Tourmaline’s successes.

Reuters reports that analysts are wondering about the U.S.’s ability to meet the demand growth of booming liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and also to meet huge domestic demand for natural gas-fired electricity generation to supply new data centre growth. Canada’s resources in Alberta’s Deep Basin and the North East BC Montney will be a huge supply source.

Deep Basin and the Montney are where the most competitive gas plays are found, and where Tourmaline operates as well as producing oil in the Peace River Triassic Lake.

Rose credits technology development and the building and ownership of midstream infrastructures as keys to affordability and profitability for Canadian companies which can control costs by controlling more of the production cycle. In addition, AI optimization has helped the company increase production. He also pointed out the environmental advantage of natural gas production. Since society needs the energy density of hydrocarbons to power industries, natural gas is the best choice as it is “the cleanest member of the fossil fuel stack.” He quoted Arjun Murti– 30 year Wall Street research analyst, buy-side investor, and advisor covering the global energy sector now with Veriten.com who asserts that there is no real energy transition and the only thing humans have actually transitioned off in the energy world is whale oil.

Rose said that 2022 statistics indicated the world set a record for all sources of energy. He pointed out that coal was supposed to replace wood 200 years ago, and it still hasn’t while wood, which has been renamed as biomass is still 7% of the overall energy stack.

The Golden Age of Gas

Rose’s natural gas outlook to 2028 in Canada was rosy saying gas “never looked better.” Beyond 2028 also looks good with a proliferation of electricity generation planned to feed data centre growth. In Alberta alone, 15 projects are in queue which will create a material increase in demand. In the U.S. however, some large U.S. natural gas supply basins have reached a tipping point with only 50% estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) left. Rose reported that drilling inventory is an issue in the U.S. but not in Canada. For example, Tourmaline has over 20 years of Tier 1 drilling inventory left while its U.S. peers don’t have the same luxury. He noted that U.S. M&A is currently driven by a quest for inventory. He noted that U.S. companies will chase profitable acquisitions in a quest for inventory to lower future costs saying “Things are still cheap in Canada.”

Canadian Resources – Will we ever be an energy superpower?

With global exploration down sharply, focus has turned to the WCSB where in the case of the Montney, only 5% has been produced so far.

“All you hear about is the western Canadian sedimentary basin and it is a monster, and it is the gift that keeps on giving, but we’re actually blessed with multiple other opportunities. Like the U.S., a number of them are off limits for government policy reasons, but certainly changes are in order.”

Some of the undeveloped basins in Canada which Rose referred to as “forbidden basins” are located on the West Coast and in the lowlands in Quebec. The tariff issue may be changing attitudes towards oil and gas development in those areas. Dealing with an unsupportive Federal Government for the last decade has made capital attraction difficult. Routine talk about phasing out Oil and Gas and the series of regulations, bills and initiatives that have stalled basin development and new pipelines have taken its toll. It has discouraged capital from flowing into the sector – a period that Rose said “ felt like an endless hurricane.”

So what is the right path forward?

The challenge for industry and policymakers is finding the right balance between energy and the environment according to Rose. He advises that setting unrealistic goals and timelines that are not based in science/technology or economics won’t work, and notes a shift away from the time frame set by net zero.

“We look at the whole environment, air, land and water, and we develop plans to improve performance in all three. We have a group of young engineers working on what amounts to an embedded clean tech business within our company, and I think they’re having a lot of fun doing it.”

One of Tourmaline’s longest initiatives, is the conversion of drilling rigs from diesel to natural gas, using field gas for fuel. The result is that projects have an improved economic return as well as reduced emissions. Rose says this year, Tourmaline will cross a “200 million barrier” and will have displaced 200 million litres of diesel and save $200 million including the makeup gas used. He says they like to think of it as a drill bit to burn initiative.

Mike Rose still had an optimistic view of the path forward for energy companies that is certainly more relevant after yesterday’s “Liberation Day” announcement from Trump.

“We’ve missed 10 years of opportunities,” Rose said. “It would have made us so much stronger than we are today as an industry and a country. Still, late is better than never. The only thing I’ll say about tariffs is that they are just another curve ball. We’ve had nothing but curve balls for 10 years, and we’ll figure out how to hit this one too. Given how integrated both countries’ energy systems are and will continue to be, I think a great narrative that just might appeal is: ‘Let’s make North America the world’s preeminent energy and oil and gas superpower’.”


Maureen McCall is an energy professional who writes on issues affecting the energy industry.

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