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Automotive

Unrealistic EV mandate requires equivalent of 10 new mega hydro dams

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3 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By G. Cornelis van Kooten

Electric Vehicles and the Demand for Electricity is the latest installment in the Institute’s series on EVs. It finds that Ottawa’s requirement that all new vehicles sold by 2035 be electric could increase Canada’s power demands by as much as 15.3 per cent

Ottawa’s EV mandate—and the increased demand for electricity—unrealistically requires the equivalent of 10 new mega hydro dams or 13 large natural gas plants nationwide within 11 years

The federal government’s requirement that all new vehicles sold by 2035 be electric could increase Canada’s power demands by as much as 15.3 per cent, requiring the equivalent of 10 new mega hydro dams or 13 large natural gas plants to meet the increased power needs, finds a new study published by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“Requiring all new vehicle sales in Canada to be electric in just 11 years means the provinces need to substantially increase their power generation capabilities, and adding the equivalent of 10 new mega dams or 13 new gas plants in such a short timeline isn’t realistic or feasible,” said G. Cornelis van Kooten, Fraser Institute senior fellow and author of Electric Vehicles and the Demand for Electricity.

The study measures how much additional electricity will be required in Canada and in three major provinces—Ontario, B.C. and Quebec—to charge electric vehicles once the federal government’s electric vehicle sales mandate comes into force.

For context, once Canada’s vehicle fleet is fully electric, it will require 10 new mega hydro dams (capable of producing 1,100 megawatts) nationwide, which is the size of British Columbia’s new Site C dam. It took approximately 10 years to plan and pass environmental regulations, and an additional decade to build. To date, Site C is expected to cost $16 billion.

Alternatively, the provinces could meet the increased electricity demand by building 13 large-scale natural gas plants nationwide capable of generating 500 megawatts of electricity each.
“Canadians need to know just how much additional electricity is going to be required in order to meet Ottawa’s electric vehicle mandate, because its impact on the provinces—and taxpayers and ratepayers—will be significant,” van Kooten said.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
G. Cornelis van Kooten, a Fraser Institute senior fellow, held the Canada Research Chair in Environmental Studies and Climate at the University of Victoria for 21 years. His research interest focuses on natural resource economics and management, and issues related to the economics of climate change.

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Automotive

Canadians’ Interest in Buying an EV Falls for Third Year in a Row

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From Energy Now

Electric vehicle prices fell 7.8 per cent in the last quarter of 2024 year-over-year, according to the AutoTader price index

Fewer Canadians are considering buying an electric vehicle, marking the third year in a row interest has dropped despite lower EV prices, a survey from AutoTrader shows.

Forty-two per cent of survey respondents say they’re considering an EV as their next vehicle, down from 46 per cent last year. In 2022, 68 per cent said they would consider buying an EV.

Meanwhile, 29 per cent of respondents say they would exclusively consider buying an EV — a significant drop from 40 per cent last year.

The report, which surveyed 1,801 people on the AutoTrader website, shows drivers are concerned about reduced government incentives, a lack of infrastructure and long-term costs despite falling prices.

Electric vehicle prices fell 7.8 per cent in the last quarter of 2024 year-over-year, according to the AutoTader price index.

The survey, conducted between Feb. 13 and March 12, shows 68 per cent of non-EV owners say government incentives could influence their decision, while a little over half say incentives increase their confidence in buying an EV.

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Automotive

Hyundai moves SUV production to U.S.

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Quick Hit:

Hyundai is responding swiftly to 47th President Donald Trump’s newly implemented auto tariffs by shifting key vehicle production from Mexico to the U.S. The automaker, heavily reliant on the American market, has formed a specialized task force and committed billions to American manufacturing, highlighting how Trump’s America First economic policies are already impacting global business decisions.

Key Details:

  • Hyundai has created a tariffs task force and is relocating Tucson SUV production from Mexico to Alabama.

  • Despite a 25% tariff on car imports that began April 3, Hyundai reported a 2% gain in Q1 operating profit and maintained earnings guidance.

  • Hyundai and Kia derive one-third of their global sales from the U.S., where two-thirds of their vehicles are imported.

Diving Deeper:

In a direct response to President Trump’s decisive new tariffs on imported automobiles, Hyundai announced Thursday it has mobilized a specialized task force to mitigate the financial impact of the new trade policy and confirmed production shifts of one of its top-selling models to the United States. The move underscores the gravity of the new 25% import tax and the economic leverage wielded by a White House that is now unambiguously prioritizing American industry.

Starting with its popular Tucson SUV, Hyundai is transitioning some manufacturing from Mexico to its Alabama facility. Additional consideration is being given to relocating production away from Seoul for other U.S.-bound vehicles, signaling that the company is bracing for the long-term implications of Trump’s tariffs.

This move comes as the 25% import tax on vehicles went into effect April 3, with a matching tariff on auto parts scheduled to hit May 3. Hyundai, which generates a full third of its global revenue from American consumers, knows it can’t afford to delay action. Notably, U.S. retail sales for Hyundai jumped 11% last quarter, as car buyers rushed to purchase vehicles before prices inevitably climb due to the tariff.

Despite the trade policy, Hyundai reported a 2% uptick in first-quarter operating profit and reaffirmed its earnings projections, indicating confidence in its ability to adapt. Yet the company isn’t taking chances. Ahead of the tariffs, Hyundai stockpiled over three months of inventory in U.S. markets, hoping to blunt the initial shock of the increased import costs.

In a significant show of good faith and commitment to U.S. manufacturing, Hyundai last month pledged a massive $21 billion investment into its new Georgia plant. That announcement was made during a visit to the White House, just days before President Trump unveiled the auto tariff policy — a strategic alignment with a pro-growth, pro-America agenda.

Still, the challenges are substantial. The global auto industry depends on complex, multi-country supply chains, and analysts warn that tariffs will force production costs higher. Hyundai is holding the line on pricing for now, promising to keep current model prices stable through June 2. After that, however, price adjustments are on the table, potentially passing the burden to consumers.

South Korea, which remains one of the largest exporters of automobiles to the U.S., is not standing idle. A South Korean delegation is scheduled to meet with U.S. trade officials in Washington Thursday, marking the start of negotiations that could redefine the two nations’ trade dynamics.

President Trump’s actions represent a sharp pivot from the era of global corporatism that defined trade under the Obama-Biden administration. Hyundai’s swift response proves that when the U.S. government puts its market power to work, foreign companies will move mountains — or at least entire assembly lines — to stay in the game.

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