From Resource Works

Canada’s regime of electric vehicle subsidies is facing a crisis with United States President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to end his own country’s EV incentives. Trump has proposed eliminating the $7,500 USD tax credit for those who purchase EVs, as well as threatening to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports.

Considering the interconnection of the North American automotive industry, this has the potential to severely disrupt Canada’s ambitious goals for widespread EV adoption. In British Columbia, whose provincial government has fully embraced the EV transition, the consequences of Trump’s presidency will be felt the strongest.

Trump’s pledge to eliminate the subsidies comes from his economic vision of a reduced role for the federal government in the American economy. This does resonate with vast segments of the U.S. market, but how it will impact Canada’s automakers is far less clear-cut.

EV subsidies in Canada, either at the federal or provincial level, are essential for the EV industry’s momentum to be maintained. Rebates of $5,000 are offered federally, and $4,000 under the CleanBC “Go Electric” program.

BC consumers can afford to buy EVs at a higher rate, and that helps sustain sales.

If Trump terminates the subsidies, automakers like General Motors, which are already dealing with slower EV production, will be reluctant to stay the course. The EV supply will fall, causing higher prices.

BC is Canada’s trailblazer in the EV market, accounting for almost 1 in 5 EV registrations across the entire country despite making up less than 14 per cent of the population. Policies like CleanBC have made EVs an attractive, affordable option for middle-class buyers, and the provincial government is committed to building up EV infrastructure.

The provincial government’s interim mandates are designed to align with federal goals, which aim for 10 per cent zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by 2025, 30 per cent by 2030, and then 100 per cent by 2040.

BC’s progress will be derailed by market turbulence triggered by Trump’s proposed policies. The removal of U.S. subsidies will be paired with his threat of 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports.

In addition to the likely reduction in EV supply, automakers like GM and Ford, which produce many of the EV models partially made in Canada for export to the American market, will be made more expensive and price Canadian-made EVs out of competition.

In BC, the EV battery plants being built in Ontario and Quebec will be delayed or even cancelled due to the lack of economic viability. Manufacturers will shift back to producing hybrid or gas-powered cars, hampering BC’s EV and ZEV targets.

As a result, BC consumers will be hit hard by the twin blows of inflated EV prices and slashed rebates. Provincial and federal budgets are already stretched, and CleanBC could be on the chopping block for cuts if the North American EV industry stagnates.

Charging infrastructure, another key component of BC’s EV strategy, might also suffer. As manufacturers like Tesla and GM scale back production, investments in public charging stations could decline, perpetuating range anxiety and further slowing EV adoption rates.

Trump should be taken at his word when he says EV subsidies will be slashed and tariffs will be imposed on Canadian markets. For BC, the stakes are even higher, and the choices made by the province’s leaders may determine if the CleanBC regime and the EV program will survive the next few years.

One thing is clear, the North American automarket is more unpredictable than it has ever been since NAFTA, and Canada as a whole does not hold the balance when it comes to leverage.