conflict
Trump Brings Glimmer Of Hope For Peace In Europe
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From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By Morgan Murphy
As the war in Ukraine rages onward, President-elect Donald Trump brings a glimmer of hope for peace in Europe this Christmas season.
An end to the fighting hinges on three key points: (1) Crimea (2) the Donbas region east of the Dnieper River and (3) NATO membership for Ukraine. Many more issues lurk, but without agreement on these major negotiating points, it is unlikely a peace deal will emerge.
Wars often begin with wild optimism that leads to untenable positions. In 1860, Confederates imagined a “short war,” and after early successes at Fort Sumter and Bull Run thought they would be marching through Philadelphia in a matter of months. In 1941, the Japanese strategized they could knock out the U.S. Pacific fleet, shocking and demoralizing the American public long enough for Japan to consolidate their “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere,” capitalizing on resource-rich territories like Southeast Asia, the Dutch East Indies and the Philippines. In both cases, initial optimism led to eventual disaster.
In 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aimed to seize Kiev and roll over the rest of Ukraine. U.S. intelligence agencies predicted he would be successful. Similarly, after an unexpectedly strong defense, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed to reclaim every inch of land occupied by Russia. Until as recently as this fall, he was touting a “victory plan” to force Moscow to surrender.
Yet, as it tends to do in conflict, the specter of death clarifies the mind. One thousand days of bloodshed in Eastern Europe has washed away initial optimism, giving way to grim realism on both sides. With the war approaching its third year, the biggest recent change in the dynamic is Trump’s landslide election in November.
In a word, Trump’s victory crushed any hopes that America might come charging into the war with air cover and boots on the ground. Out too, are further multi-billion “supplemental Ukraine spending packages.” The American people resoundingly voted to shrink government and cut off the firehose of taxpayer dollars spewing out of Washington, D.C.
Last Wednesday, Trump named Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as the special envoy to Russia and Ukraine. In the announcement, Trump said of Kellogg, “He was with me right from the beginning! Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!” The battle-hardened warrior and former Fox News analyst (and full disclosure — my boss and colleague at the America First Policy Institute) will no doubt bring massive pressure to bear on both sides.
After the election, it did not take long for all parties to adjust to the new reality. Putin said what Trump publicly said “about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserves attention at least.” Last week, Zelenskyy soberly admitted to Sky News that Ukraine would surrender Crimea, Russia’s critical entry point to the Black Sea.
“He’s been saying that quietly for more than a year,” another prominent Ukrainian politician told me privately this week.
Likewise, European leaders are quietly discussing the most likely scenario: Russia keeps Crimea and the Russian-centric provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. Speaking off the record with several former Senate colleagues, the mood seems the same in Washington.
That leaves, of course, the issue of NATO membership for Ukraine. President Joe Biden and his senior-most cabinet membersr loudly and repeatedly promised NATO membership for Ukraine. The problem with that promise was their resounding defeat. The American people feel great sympathy for Ukraine, but that stops short of committing the lives of our youth to defend Ukraine’s borders.
Since at least 2007, Putin has made clear that NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia are non-negotiable for Russia. Though many Western leaders seem to doubt his resolve, Putin has more than backed up his red line with 700,000 Russian casualties. More American jets or long-range missiles are unlikely to change Putin’s calculus.
Short of NATO membership, perhaps we will see a U.N. peacekeeping mission similar to the armistice on the Korean Peninsula in 1953. Ukrainian membership in the European Union may be in the offing as well.
Either way, a new American president and seeming willingness on both sides to negotiate brings with it the hope of peace in the new year.
Morgan Murphy is military thought leader, former press secretary to the Secretary of Defense and national security advisor in the U.S. Senate.
armed forces
SecDef Hegseth picks investigators to examine botched Afghanistan withdrawal
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MxM News
Quick Hit:
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has initiated an investigation into the Biden administration’s botched Afghanistan withdrawal. Hegseth confirmed that investigators have already been selected to examine the disastrous exit, which left 13 U.S. service members dead and stranded Americans behind. He emphasized that accountability is forthcoming and vowed a thorough review to uncover the decision-making failures behind the debacle.
Key Details:
- Hegseth told Breitbart News that he has already chosen investigators for a full Pentagon-led review of the withdrawal.
- The Biden administration’s 2021 exit resulted in the deaths of 13 U.S. service members, abandoned American citizens, and a botched drone strike that killed an Afghan aid worker and his family.
- No officials were held accountable, while Marine Col. Stuart Scheller, who publicly called for accountability, was the only one punished—he now serves in the Trump administration.
Diving Deeper:
Hegseth, in an exclusive interview, stated that the investigation would be comprehensive, focusing on key decision-making failures that led to one of the most disastrous military withdrawals in U.S. history. While no specific timeline was provided, he stressed the importance of getting the facts right.
The 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, executed under then-President Joe Biden, resulted in a chaotic evacuation at Kabul International Airport. The suicide bombing at Abbey Gate claimed the lives of 13 American troops, while the administration abandoned hundreds of U.S. citizens despite claiming success. Additionally, the U.S. military, in a hasty attempt to prevent another attack, launched a drone strike that mistakenly killed an innocent Afghan aid worker and his family. At the time, then-Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley defended the strike as “righteous.”
Despite these failures, no senior officials were removed from their posts. The only individual who faced consequences was Marine Col. Stuart Scheller, who was discharged after demanding accountability in a viral video. Now, he serves as a senior adviser to the Defense Under Secretary for Personnel and Readiness under the 47th President, Donald Trump.
Hegseth reaffirmed his commitment to ensuring accountability, emphasizing the need to establish a factual timeline of events, decisions, and their consequences. “I don’t think there’s anybody that feels like there’s been an honest accounting of what happened in Afghanistan. That’s our job,” he said.
The investigation, he added, will be critical to rebuilding trust within the Defense Department. “We’re going to drive that full investigation and get a sense of what happened. Accountability will be coming,” Hegseth concluded.
conflict
Senior U.S. officials meet with Russians in Saudi Arabia to normalize relations, end Ukraine war
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MxM News
Quick Hit:
Senior U.S. officials met with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia for the most extensive discussions between the two nations in years. The Trump administration is pushing for an end to the Ukraine war and the normalization of relations, with economic and energy cooperation also on the agenda.
Key Details:
- U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh.
- Russian officials are seeking to restore economic ties, including potential returns of American oil companies to Russia.
- Ukraine and European allies are concerned that President Trump could broker a peace deal favoring Russia without consulting Kyiv.
Diving Deeper:
Senior U.S. and Russian officials gathered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for high-level discussions aimed at ending the war in Ukraine and exploring ways to rebuild diplomatic and economic ties. The meeting marks the most significant engagement between the two nations in at least three years and follows a recent phone call between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which both leaders emphasized the benefits of renewed cooperation.
Leading the U.S. delegation were Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, and Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff. Their Russian counterparts included Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, and Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund. Discussions centered on peace negotiations in Ukraine and the possibility of American oil companies re-entering the Russian market.
Dmitriev emphasized the economic advantages of resuming business relations with the U.S., noting that American companies had lost an estimated $300 billion due to sanctions and business withdrawals following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. He argued that restoring these ties could be mutually beneficial, citing President Trump’s focus on economic success and pragmatic deal-making.
The meeting has sparked concern among European allies and Ukraine, who worry that Trump may push for a settlement favoring Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, also in the Gulf region for diplomatic efforts, reaffirmed that Ukraine would reject any peace deal negotiated without its direct involvement.
Despite skepticism from the West, the Trump administration maintains that engagement with Russia is necessary to end the conflict and normalize relations. “If there is going to be the possibility of progress here towards peace, we are going to need to talk to the Russians,” Rubio stated on CBS’s Face the Nation prior to the talks.
Saudi Arabia, which has maintained a neutral stance in the Ukraine conflict, played host to the discussions as part of its broader ambition to position itself as a global diplomatic leader. The Kingdom’s Foreign Ministry emphasized its commitment to fostering peace and security through international dialogue.
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