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Alberta

Start-up of Trans Mountain expansion ‘going very well’ as global buyers ink deals for Canadian crude

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A worker at Trans Mountain’s Burnaby Terminal. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Deborah Jaremko

Chinese refiner pays about US$10 more for oil off TMX compared to sales value in Alberta

Canada’s oil sands producers are “back in the limelight” for investors following completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, according to a report by Enervus Intelligence Research.

For the first time in the better part of a decade, there is now breathing room on the system to ship all of the oil producers are able to sell off the coast of B.C.

Up until this May, Trans Mountain was regularly overbooked. Not anymore.

The crude carrier Dubai Angel picked up the first shipment from the long-awaited expansion on May 22, setting sail for China and a customer of oil sands producer Suncor Energy.

Analysts estimate Trans Mountain loaded 20 vessels in June, compared to a pre-expansion average of five per month.

“You’re seeing multiple buyers. It’s going very well,” said Phil Skolnick, managing director of research with New York-based Eight Capital.

“You’re seeing the exact buyers that we always thought were going to show up, the U.S. west coast refineries and as well as the Asian refineries, and there was a shipment that went to India as well.”

The “Golden Weld” in April 2024 marked the mechanical completion and end of construction for the Trans Mountain expansion project. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

Canadian crude in demand on the global market

Asian markets – particularly China, where refineries can process “substantial quantities” of extra heavy crude and bitumen – are now “opened in earnest” to Canadian oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its June Oil 2024 report.

“There’s demand for this crude and people are going to make deals,” said Kevin Birn, chief analyst of Canadian oil markets with S&P Global.

The IEA said Canadian crude will increasingly compete with heavy oil from other countries, particularly those in Latin America and the Middle East.

June’s loading of 20 vessels is slightly lower than the 22 vessels Trans Mountain had targeted, but Skolnick said a few bumps in the project’s ramp-up are to be expected.

“About three months ago, the shippers were telling investors on their calls, don’t expect it to be a smooth ramp up, it’s going to be a bit bumpy, but I think they’re expecting by Q4 you should start seeing everyone at peak rates,” Skolnick said.

Delivering higher prices

Trans Mountain’s expanded Westridge Terminal at Burnaby, B.C. now has capacity to load 34 so-called “Aframax” vessels each month.

One of the first deals, with Chinese refiner Rongsheng Petrochemical, indicates the Trans Mountain expansion is delivering on one of its expected benefits – higher prices for Canadian oil.

Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office has said that an increase of US$5 per barrel for Canadian heavy oil over one year would add $6 billion to Canada’s economy.

The June deal between Rongsheng and an unnamed oil sands shipper saw a shipment of Access Western Blend (AWB) purchased for approximately US$6 per barrel below the Brent global oil benchmark. That implies an AWB selling price of approximately US$75 per barrel, or about US$10 more than the price received for AWB in Alberta.

Expanded export capacity at the Trans Mountain Westridge Terminal. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

More pipeline capacity needed

Oil sands production – currently about 3.4 million barrels per day – is projected to rise to 3.8 million barrels per day by the end of the decade before declining slightly to about 3.6 million barrels per day in 2035, according to the latest outlook by S&P Global.

“Despite the recent completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion project, additional capacity will still be needed, likely via expansion or optimization of the existing pipeline system,” wrote Birn and S&P senior research analyst Celina Hwang in May.

“By 2026, we forecast the need for further export capacity to ensure that the system remains balanced on pipeline economics.”

Uncertainty over the federal government’s proposed oil and gas emissions cap “adds hesitation” to companies considering large-scale production growth, wrote Birn and Hwang.

Global oil demand rising

World oil demand, which according to the IEA reached a record 103 million barrels per day in 2023, is projected to continue rising despite increased investment in renewable and alternative energy.

June outlook by the International Energy Forum (IEF) pegs 2030 oil demand at nearly 110 million barrels per day.

“More investment in new oil and gas supply is needed to meet growing demand and maintain energy market stability, which is the foundation of global economic and social well-being,” said IEF secretary Joseph McMonigle.

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Alberta

On gender, Alberta is following the science

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Aristotle Foundation Home

 

 

By J. Edward Les, MD

 

Despite falling into disrepute in recent years, “follow the science” remains our best shot at getting at the truth of the physical sciences.

But science, if we are to place our trust in it, must be properly defined and understood; it is at its essence an ever-changing process, a relentless pursuit of truth that is never “settled,” and one that is unafraid to discard old hypotheses in the face of new evidence.

And it is in this light—in the unforgiving glare of honest science—that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s three new legislative initiatives around gender policy are properly understood, notwithstanding the opprobrium they’ve attracted from critics.

Bill 26, the Health Statutes Amendment Act, proposes to prohibit the prescription of puberty blockers and cross-gender hormones for the treatment of gender dysphoria to youth aged 15 and under. It would allow minors aged 16 and 17 to begin puberty blockers and hormone therapies for gender “reassignment” and “affirmation” purposes only with parental, physician, and psychologist approval. The bill also prohibits health professionals from performing sex reassignment surgeries on minors.

Bill 27, the Education Amendment Act, seeks to enshrine parents’ rights to be notified if their kids change their names/pronouns at school, and it gives parents the right to “opt in” to what sort of gender and sex education their kids are exposed to in school.

And Bill 29, the Fairness and Safety in Sports Act, is designed to protect females in sports by ensuring that women and girls can compete in biological female-only divisions, while supporting the formation of co-ed opportunities to support transgender athletes.

Each of these initiatives is entirely reasonable, given what we know of the science underpinning “gender care,” and of the undeniable advantages that a male physique confers upon biological males competing in sports.

The notion that the trifecta of puberty blockers, cross-gender hormones, and revisionist surgery is a pathway to good health was a hypothesis initially devised by Dutch researchers, who were looking to ease the discomfort of transgender adults struggling with incongruence between their physical appearance and their gender identities. As a hypothesis, it was perhaps reasonable.

But as the UK’s Cass Review exposed in withering detail last spring, its premises were wholly unsupported by evidence, and its implementation has caused grievous harm for youth. As Finnish psychiatrist Riittakerttu Kaltiala, one of the architects of that country’s gender program, put it last year, “Gender affirming care is dangerous. I know, because I helped pioneer it.”

It’s no accident, then, that numerous European jurisdictions have pulled back from the “gender affirming care” pathway for youth, such as Sweden, Finland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

It makes perfect sense that Canadians should be cautious as well, and that parents should be apprised if their children are being exposed to these theories at school and informed if their kids are caught up in their premises.

Yet the Canadian medical establishment has remained curiously intransigent on this issue, continuing to insist that the drug-and-surgery-based gender-affirming care model is rooted in evidence.

Premier Smith was asked by a reporter last month whether decisions on these matters aren’t best left to discussions between doctors and their patients; to which she replied:

“I would say doctors aren’t always right.”

Which is rather an understatement, as anyone familiar with the opioid drug crisis can attest, or as anyone acquainted with the darker corners of medical history knows: the frontal lobotomy saga, the thalidomide catastrophe, and the “recovered memories of sexual abuse” scandal are just a few examples of where doctors didn’t “get it right.”

As physicians, we advocate strongly for self-regulation and for the principle that medical decisions are private matters between physicians and patients. But self-regulation isn’t infallible, and when it fails it can be very much in the interests of the public—and especially of patients—for others to intervene, whether they be journalists, lawyers, or political leaders.

The trans discussion shouldn’t be a partisan issue, although it certainly has become one in Canada. It’s worth noting that Britain’s freshly elected Labour Party chose to carry on with the cautious approach adopted by the preceding administration in light of the Cass Review.

Premier Smith’s new polices are eminently sensible and in line with the stance taken by our European colleagues. None of her initiatives are “anti-trans.” Instead, they are pro-child, pro-women, and pro-athlete, and it’s difficult to see how anyone can quibble with that.

Dr. J. Edward Les, MD, is a pediatrician in Calgary, senior fellow at the Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy, and co-author of Teenagers, Children, and Gender Transition Policy: A Comparison of Transgender Medical Policy for Minors in Canada, the United States, and Europe.

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Alberta

Working to avoid future US tariffs, Alberta signs onto U.S. energy pact

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Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry and New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu of the Governors’ Coalition for Energy Security

Premier Danielle Smith has joined the Governors’ Coalition for Energy Security to further support advocacy of Alberta’s energy and environmental interests with key U.S. states.

The coalition was established in September 2024 by U.S. State governors Jeff Landry (Louisiana) and Chris Sununu (New Hampshire) with the aim of ensuring energy security, lower energy costs, increased reliability, sustainable economic development and sensible management of energy resources and the environment. With 12 U.S. states already signatories to the coalition, Alberta is the first non-U.S. state to enter into this agreement.

By expanding energy ties with the U.S. and promoting cross-border energy trade and participation, Alberta is helping to build upon its North American Energy strategy. Alberta already accounts for 56 per cent of all oil imports to the U.S. – twice as much as Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Iraq combined – which is helping to drive job creation and prosperity on both sides of the border. Natural gas also plays an important role in North America’s energy mix. Alberta is the largest producer of natural gas in Canada and remains positioned to support the U.S. in filling their domestic supply gaps.

“I am honoured to join the Governors’ Coalition for Energy Security and would like to extend my sincere thanks to governors Landry and Sununu for the invitation. Alberta plays a vital role in North American energy security, serving as the largest supplier of crude oil and natural gas to the United States. With 200 billion barrels of recoverable oil, 200 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, significant natural gas liquids and ample pore space for carbon capture, Alberta’s contribution is set to grow even further as we look to work with the Trump Administration and other U.S. partners to increase our pipeline capacity to our greatest friend and ally, the United States. We are proud to collaborate with this coalition of allied states in advancing energy security, reliability and affordability for Americans and Canadians.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

“Our mission as an organization has not changed but Alberta’s welcome arrival to our group sparked a conversation about what our core mission is, and that is ensuring energy security in all its forms. Our members all share the common goal of enhancing and protecting energy options for our people and businesses, which leads to lower energy costs, increased reliability, sustainable economic development and wise management of energy resources and the environment. I welcome Premier Smith and the insights she will bring as the leader from a fellow energy-producing province, that like my state, is under a federal system of government where national imperatives are not always aligned with state or provincial interests.”

Jeff Landry, governor of Louisiana

Alberta is a global leader in emissions reduction technology and clean energy solutions. The province has captured about 14 million tonnes of carbon dioxide through carbon capture, utilization and storage technology, and has the ability to support the U.S. in developing new infrastructure and supply chains for future energy markets in the areas of hydrogen, renewables, small modular reactors and others.

Alberta is also unlocking its untapped geological potential to help meet the increasing demand for minerals – many of which are used worldwide to manufacture batteries, cell phones, energy storage cells and other products. This includes the province’s lithium sector where Alberta’s government is supporting several innovative projects to develop new ways to extract and concentrate lithium faster and with higher recovery rates that are less capital and energy intensive and have a smaller land-use footprint.

As part of this coalition, Alberta looks forward to sharing best practices with states that already have expertise in these areas.

Quick facts

  • The U.S. is Alberta’s largest trading partner, with C$188 billion in bilateral trade in 2023.
  • In 2023, energy products accounted for approximately C$133.6 billion, or more than 80 per cent of Alberta’s exports to the U.S.
  • The Governors’ Coalition for Energy Security’s 12 signatory states include Louisiana, New Hampshire, Indiana (Governor Eric Holcomb), Alabama (Governor Kay Ivey), Georgia (Governor Brian Kemp), Tennessee (Governor Bill Lee), South Dakota (Governor Kristi Noem), Mississippi (Governor Tate Reeves), Arkansas (Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders), Oklahoma (Governor Kevin Stitt), Wyoming (Governor Mark Gordon) and Virginia (Governor Glenn Youngkin).

 

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