Bruce Dowbiggin
Recency Bias: Why Kraken, Knights Avoided Expansion Fate
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Like isn’t fair. That’s the triusm. For fans of established NHL teams the sight of the Vegas Golden Knights and Seattle Kraken still in the playoffs— while their own teams are playing golf— is a little galling. Aren’t expansion teams supposed to lose a lot for a long time before gaining success?
The Washington Capitals in their debut season of 1974-75 posted the worst single-season record ever at 8-67-5. (Imagine how much worse the losing if this occurred before the demise of ties?) The Caps never won two consecutive games; their 21 total points were half that of their expansion brethren, the Kansas City Scouts; their .131 winning percentage is still the worst in NHL history, and they lost 37 straight road games.
Only marginally better were the 1992-93 expansion Ottawa Senators, who brought the NHL back to Canada’s capital after the first Senators team folded in 1934. The team recorded three NHL records that season: longest home losing streak of eleven; longest road losing streak with a total of 39 (nearly the whole season) and fewest road wins in a season, with just one victory.
In the same year of 1992-92, the San Jose Sharks, a hybrid expansion team in its first year after leaving Cleveland, posted a brutal 11-71-2 mark. The Sharks allowed 10 or more goals in a game three times and finished the season 22nd in both scoring (219 goals for) and goaltending (359 goals against).
And so on. The 2000-01 Atlanta Thrashers went 14-57-7. The 1972-73 New York Islanders were a putrid 12-60-6 in their inaugural NHL campaign. (At least the Islanders paid off their fans for the abysmal start, winning the Stanley Cup within eight years and preceding to rip off four straight Cups from 1980-83.) The Caps took till 2018 to get a Cup. Kansas City moved to become the Colorado Rockies and then the New Jersey Devils before becoming a huge success with three Cups in 1995, 2000 and 2003. The Sharks and Senators have no championships at all.
Many had predicted similar failure for the Knights. But it didn’t happen that way. Nor did it go sideways in Seattle, either. For one, the enormous $500M Vegas/ $650M Seattle expansion fees demanded some competitiveness. Then, cap pressure from Gary Bettman’s salary cap forced established teams into bad decisions, forcing teams to be creative when they could not pay their stars more money. So clubs began handing out no-movement clauses (NMC) and no-trade-clauses (NTC) like Halloween candy in lieu of salary. These alterations would get their revenge in the Vegas Golden Knights expansion fiasco (for teams).
To guarantee a fair expansion draft process for the Golden Knights the league hired former Vancouver assistant GM Laurence Gilman to design a protocol for the selections. What he found did not exactly correspond to the assignment letter: “It was called an expansion draft, but an expansion draft is what occurred in 2001 when Minnesota and Columbus selected players between them. This was an asset-harvest event. Las Vegas wasn’t competing with another franchise and had the ability to map out exactly what they wanted to harvest.”
That they did. In 2016, the Knights had hired former player and ex-Washington Capitals GM George McPhee, who had from 1997 to 2014 orchestrated the building of the Caps from sad sacks to contenders. McPhee then hired personnel specialist Kelly McCrimmon to be his right-hand man in the process. By 2017, McPhee and McCrimmon understood how the expansion game was changed by issues such as NMCs and NTCs. In 2017, there were 66 NHL players who owned a NMC in their contracts, requiring them to be protected by their clubs in the expansion draft— even if those clubs would rather get out from under their contracts.
Columbus had given goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno and Scott Hartnell contracts with no-move-clauses, long before GM Jarmo Kekalainen had contemplated expansion ramifications, and they suffered the consequences as a result. Enter McPhee who worked a deal where Vegas would select William Karlsson — who had just one goal in his final 43 games in Columbus — while also receiving a first-round pick, a second-round pick and David Clarkson’s expensive contract. Karlsson would score 43 goals and 78 points in the Knights first season. The two draft picks would be turned into a deal for Nick Suzuki and, eventually, Max Pacioretty.
McPhee then targeted Anaheim. The Ducks were forced to protect Kevin Bieksa who didn’t have much hockey time left. The NMC in his contract required protection over younger teammates like Theodore, Josh Manson and Sami Vatanen. So Anaheim traded defenceman Shea Theodore to Vegas so Vegas would draft Clayton Stoner instead of one of their prime prospects. And so on.
The Knights exploitation of NMCs and NTCs turned trading from a trickle into a fire hose, making 10 trades before and after the 2017 draft. That yielded 12 draft picks, while also adding valuable pieces in Marc-Andre Fleury, Shea Theodore, Karlsson, Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault and Alex Tuch as part of those deals.
Vegas became the best expansion team in any major pro sport ever. The newest team in the NHL has missed the postseason just once since its arrival in 2017-18, in 2022. This while Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa have missed every postseason in that span, while Anaheim and New Jersey have just one playoff appearance since the Knights’ first season. Naturally this success did not go over well with those clubs and others who felt Vegas needed to pay some dues before becoming a regular in the playoffs.
So when it came time for Seattle Kraken to build their first roster the sentiment around there NHL was “let’s not do that again”. For example, the Kraken wouldn’t get a crack at the Knights’ roster— they were exempted from the expansion draft process. One other specific change was in the number of NMC and NTC players. After 68 in 2017, there would be just 52 players in that position when the Kraken made their selections in 2021. In short, there were fewer opportunities to pluck cap-strapped teams for players like Karlsson and Marchessault.
The lack of depth on the Kraken showed initially. Seattle wound up 15th in the Western Conference with just 60 points and a minus-69 goal differential. Comparisons to the Knights proved premature. It took another offseason for the Kraken to be competitive. But Matty Beniers is a leading Calder Trophy candidate; it looks like he will be a foundational piece for this fledgling franchise. Vegas and Seattle duelled for the leadership of the Pacific Division all season before Vegas prevailed.
Now they’re in the postseason with the Knights, playing on equal footing with the best. Few players remain from that first Knights team, and few more with the Kraken. But the results remain the same.
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Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his new book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via http://brucedowbigginbooks.ca/book-personalaccount.aspx
Bruce Dowbiggin
Dear Vladdy: Now, A Few Helpful Words From Vladimir Putin
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If you feel you’re lost in the No-Fun House these days you’re not alone. We already noted the disquieting sequence of events this summer, “Since Joe Biden went full Sling Blade in his debate with Donald Trump to a near-fatal assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania to the Democratic Party staging a Covid-inspired coup against Biden. And now Ms. Montreal, Kamala Harris, being retro-fitted into the Dems’ nominee against Trump while her media pals hastily erase her past.”
If you believe the current polling (you shouldn’t) she’s moved from ugly Biden duckling to Obama swan in just weeks. F1 cars don’t move this fast. But when the combined weight of Hollywood and the media party are playing Wag The Dog, you shouldn’t be surprised when the Dems try to put Trump in Rikers Island jail later this month.
Here in Canada, prime minister Trudeau is busy employing Harris’ Marxist strategy. “What can be, unburdened by what has been“. Like an actor from some bad prequel, he’s harassing steel workers with the novel concept that “I’m not who you think I am”. His pollsters are hinting he’s set for a breakout from the abysmal numbers he now has versus Pierre Poilievre, aka Little Trump.
Again, the embedded forces of the Canadian media, fat with Trudeau handouts, are not to be underestimated when the federal election rolls around in late 2025. A fourth term is always possible in the Land of the Gullible. For now they await the lessons that will be learned from the 2024 presidential election stateside.
The most likely outcome in Trump v. Harris is neither side accepting defeat. (Which will play havoc with Tom Hanks’ fatuous promise to move to Canada should trump prevail.) A drawn-out debate in the U.S. Supreme Court seasoned with a garnish of Electoral College hanky-panky seems a promising scenario for Trudeau— even with Jagmeet Singh, the man long bitching from Justin’s sidecar, now severing their entente..
As we say, it’s all disturbing. What most people in the West can agree on, however, is that Vlad Putin is a bad dude. So bad that both sides of the divide insist their opponent is in the pocket of the man in the Kremlin. The Left is yet again saying Putin funnels money to Trump’s pocket while the Right insists that Putin is working the Obamites to end America’s energy hegemony.
So it comes as a surprise when Alex Ovechkin’s favourite setup man actually nails a few home truths about what is happening socially in the Excited States, Canada and there EU. As we noted in October of 2021, Mr. Baddy sat down at a conference to impart wisdom about censorship and free speech now unfolding in the West.
“Incidentally, the Bolsheviks were absolutely intolerant of other opinions, different from their own. I think this should remind you of something that is happening… (in) the 1920s, the Soviet couture Tagore came up with the so-called ‘Newspeak’, and they thought that thereby they were building a new consciousness and coming up with new values, and they went so far that we feel the consequences up until now.
“There are some monstrous things when from a very young age, you teach to children that the boy can easily become a girl and you impose on them this selection, this choice. You push the parents aside and make the child take this decisions that can destroy their lives… all of that under the banner of progress, while some people just want to do that.”
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“This is something we saw in Russia. It happened in our country before the 1917 revolution; the Bolsheviks followed the dogmas of Marx and Engels. And they also declared that they would go in to change the traditional lifestyle, the political, the economic lifestyle, as well as the very notion of morality, the basic principles for a healthy society.
They were trying to destroy age and century-long values, revisiting the relationship between the people. They were encouraging informing on one’s own beloved and families. It was hailed as the march of progress. And it was very popular across the world, and it was supported by many, as we see, it is happening right now.
It is with puzzlement that we see the practices Russia used to have and that we left behind in distant past. The fight for equality and against discrimination turns into an aggressive dogmatism on the brink of absurdity, when great authors of the past such as Shakespeare are no longer taught in schools and universities, because they announced as backward classics that did not understand the importance of gender or race.”
You go, Vlad. There is some recent grassroots pushback to uncontrolled Wokeism, but not enough. Despite the activities of Obama and others, the virtue seekers of the U.S. and Canada seem complacent in the face of such caution. As conservative critic Mark Steyn observes of the gradual U.S. decline— and that of Canada, too— “The good news is that we’re unlikely to get another decade of complacency, because, absent any serious pushback, we’re transitioning from the ‘gradually’ to the ‘suddenly’ phase.”
Which will make today’s discomfort seem like a walk in the park.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
Bruce Dowbiggin
From Deal With It: A Cruel, Senseless Fate Ends A Brilliant Career
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The tragic death of NHL star Johnny Gaudreau and his brother Matthew in a car/ bike accident last Thursday in New Jersey was sad beyond words. The pair, riding home from a rehearsal dinner for their sister’s wedding the next day, were killed by a drunk driver who’d passed on the right side of a vehicle ahead. Words fail.
The loss of the brothers reminded us that in our new book Deal With It we dealt with a key moment in Gaudreau’s NHL career when he abandoned Calgary, the only NHL team he’d known since 2014, for Columbus in a controversial decision. Here’s what we said:
“If 2017-18 had been a turning point, 2021-22 was the major breakthrough that saw Gaudreau as a HHoF legend in the making, one who could have his number someday in the rafters in Calgary… should he choose to remain there. As it was, Flames supporters who had seen the team win just one playoff series since 2004, were eager to see how high the new-look Flames could soar and if Gaudreau might finally find his playoff scoring touch. They also looked forward to a possible matchup against the Oilers who’d had to work to even make the postseason.
Against stingy Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger, the Flames had to work just to escape in seven games, with Gaudreau notching just two goals in the series. Both would be game winners as Calgary outlasted the Stars in a nailbiter. His brilliant Game 7 overtime snipe— going short-side top corner near Oetinger’s head— was his highwater mark in a flaming “C,” sending the club into their first postseason clash with the Oilers since 1991. Coach Sutter praised his little winger’s efforts, saying Gaudreau had “taken that step to perform as well in the playoffs” as in the regular season. Gaudreau’s play in the series against Dallas was not helped by indifferent play from Tkachuk, who seemed disinterested in going to the danger areas and only mixing it up physically with the underdog Stars when scrums or opportunities for face washes were provided.
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Unfortunately for the Flames, the struggles of their top line against Dallas caught up to them in a passionate showdown with McDavid and the Oilers. In Game 1, Calgary raced to a lopsided 5-1 lead before seeing McDavid bring the Oilers back to tie it at 6-6 in the third frame. Tkachuk got the last laugh on this occasion, burying the third of his three goals that ensured a ridiculous 9-6 series-opening win for Calgary. In Game 2, Calgary once again took an early lead only to watch Edmonton roar back again again. This time, the Oilers made their resurgence hold up and claimed a 5-3 win. After dropping Game 3 in concerningly easy fashion (4-1), then trailing for the bulk of Game 4, the Flames seemed to turn a corner when they came back to tie Game 5 3-3. Looking for a turning point on Edmonton ice, they instead sagged as the Oilers scored twice in the final seven minutes.
Facing elimination in Game 5, Gaudreau’s Flames toyed with fans’ emotions as they possessed the lead twice only to see Edmonton get the equalizer both times. Pushed to the brink, the gut punch of McDavid potting the winner in OT was the final touch on Calgary’s wasted chance at a deep championship run. As it turns out, it was also the early end of an era that once held so much promise. “Missed opportunities,” the Sutter lamented postgame. “It’s not being critical, that’s just true. They’re going to tell you that, too. Missed opportunities go the other way.” The subduing of Calgary’s top line (just six goals including Tkachuk’s Game 1 hatty) was a key to Edmonton’s shockingly decisive triumph, leading to the same old questions about Gaudreau. Those questions also applied to Tkachuk, with doubt cast upon building around them for playoff success. There would be little time for reflection in the offseason talent market.
Instead of Calgary entertaining trades, the options would be in Gaudreau’s hands. As the July 1 trade deadline approached, Gaudreau announced that, despite an enormous eight-year, $80M contract offer from the Flames, he would test free agency. The star winger claimed to many in private that he wanted to go home so his wife could have their baby in the USA. As such, it was believed his preferred venues were the Islanders, Devils or Flyers (closer to home and a childhood favourite team, given he grew up just across the Delaware River from Philly). Still wishing something could be worked out, Calgary management hoped against hope for a reversal of his decision to entertain other cities after the UFA market opened. But Flames fans quietly resigned themselves to losing him for nothing.
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To the shock and surprise of many, Gaudreau would go only as far as Columbus, Ohio, when it came to finding a new home. Accepting less than Calgary’s max offer to go play on a team with few real hopes of playoff contention– a ten-hour drive from the Jersey shore where he supposedly wanted to be– Gaudreau sent a missile into Flame country. The optics were terrible for the 29-year old superstar, after insisting he wanted to be near the family home on the Jersey shore. Eric Duhatschek, shortly after, summed up the stunned reaction in The Athletic, writing “The fact that it took Gaudreau so long to choose effectively sabotaged the Flames’ off-season, because it closed so many possible Plan B options to the organization. Closer to home, but not close — because if close to home was the absolute priority, then he could have picked the New Jersey Devils, who also tabled an offer. Columbus is more easily reached by private jet than Calgary, but it’s not as if he’ll be dropping into his mom’s house for dinner after a game or a practice — or getting emergency babysitting service if they need someone right this minute to help out on the home front.” Calgary’s abandonment was best summed up by CBC broadcaster Andrew Brown’s sign-off that day, “And that’s the news for now, I’ll be back here at 11, unless a news station in Columbus offers me way less money… and I’ll probably go do that.”
Gaudreau himself put a salty punctuation on dumping Calgary at his welcome presser in Columbus. “It didn’t matter where I was signing. Our decision was it was best for us not to go back to Calgary.” From America, the reaction was more sympathetic to Gaudreau. In the New York Post, Larry Brooks sneered, “The hysterical response to Johnny Gaudreau’s decision to leave millions on the table in Calgary and instead sign with Columbus was indeed just that. Players are routinely lambasted across the professional sports landscape for being greedy mercenaries. Now this one is being targeted for taking a road less traveled.”
On Barstool Sports, personality “The Rear Admiral” summed up a scathing putdown with “Hell hath no fury like Canadian media (allegedly) scorned… But when media members wail and stomp their feet because a fellow adult opts to work in a new location, well that’s a special kind of entertainment.” For Flames GM Treliving, whose contract wasn’t renewed at season’s end, there was some resignation over the hand he’d been dealt. “At the end of the day, the players make decisions,” Treliving said. “You always reflect back on how you go through a process. I feel very, very comfortable that the ownership of this organization, the management team here did everything possible to have [Tkachuk and Gaudreau] sign and stay. They chose, they didn’t want to. Not a lot you can do about that so you move forward.”
![](https://i0.wp.com/images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/557e12a0e4b04d97ac0ab999/172abf39-1b40-49be-8423-28240d165fb2/IMG_1167.jpeg?resize=740%2C1063&ssl=1)
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
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