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Alberta

Premier Danielle Smith says federal EV mandate doesn’t work for Albertans

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Federal electric vehicle mandate: Premier Smith

Premier Danielle Smith issued this response to the federal zero-emission vehicle mandate:

“Alberta’s government supports reducing emissions from the transportation sector and supporting Albertans who wish to drive lower-emissions vehicles. However, these efforts must be led by and support consumers and businesses, and the federal government has no legal or moral authority to tell Albertans what vehicles they can and cannot buy.

“Alberta has already purchased and is working with municipalities and industry to explore the use of hydrogen-powered vehicles in our provincial transportation fleet and evaluating options to increase hydrogen fuelling stations across Alberta. We’re funding pilots that are testing long-range hydrogen trucks for industry and buses in major cities. We’re working with the same partners to improve access to EV charging stations. The federal government should rein back its failed command economy tactics and work with us on a consumer-based market approach that is achievable and doesn’t hurt people.

“And yet, in another show of total disregard for the well-being of Canadians, the federal government has unilaterally imposed an unconstitutional edict with a bizarrely impossible timeline that will result in massive increases in the cost of vehicles and utility bills, vehicle rationing and wait lists, increased costs to businesses and elevated difficulty and safety risk for hundreds of thousands of Albertans and Canadians just trying to get to work and family activities in our unpredictable, and often cold, climate.

“The sheer hypocrisy of this announcement is astounding. To date, the federal government’s EV approach has been a disaster. The independent federal commissioner of the environment and sustainable development found Ottawa is failing to meet its current target of making 80 per cent of the federal government’s fleet vehicles net zero by 2030. The federal commissioner found that if progress continues at the current rate, the federal government will reach only one per cent of its target by 2030. Not only are there not enough electric vehicle chargers, Ottawa doesn’t even know where EV chargers are needed. The federal government will fail to hit its target even where it has complete discretion, and yet it plans to mandate similar targets on consumers throughout all of Canada.

“Although it seems rather obvious to say, emissions targets and regulations must be realistic, achievable, and cannot result in multiple severe harms to millions of Canadians. A federal government that can’t transition its own fleet to EVs should not be telling Albertans and Canadians to do what even it is unable to do.

“It’s also deeply concerning that Ottawa is trying to force increased demands on the electricity grid while simultaneously weakening Alberta’s and other provinces’ grids through their federal electricity regulations. Our electric grids are not equipped to handle the massive demand surge that a forced full-scale transition to EVs would need to accommodate the delusional timelines in Ottawa’s regulations, and the federal government has not provided remotely enough financial assistance to assist provincial grids to meet this mandated electricity demand.

“Further, these new regulations will result in a shortage and rationing of traditional vehicles starting in 2026 and even earlier, as millions of consumers in need of combustion engine vehicles, especially those living in smaller municipalities that commute long distances, will be unable to power or afford an EV but also won’t be able to find an appropriate vehicle to drive in their circumstances. Apparently, the federal government doesn’t understand that freezing with their families in -30 C on the side of a rural road is not an option for Albertans.

“There is a way to encourage Canadians to drive more EVs, hydrogen-powered cars and other low-emission vehicles. Instead of telling Canadians how to spend their money and lining up for the right to purchase what they need, the federal government should focus on helping provinces develop infrastructure and advance technologies that are more suitable to Canada’s long distances and cold weather.

“Canadians deserve more than destructive virtue-signalling regulations and unachievable targets. Unfortunately, this federal government continues to show that it is all rhetoric and no substance. This approach does not serve Canadians and it won’t protect the environment.

“The Government of Alberta will do everything within its legal jurisdiction to thwart implementation of these unconstitutional regulations in our province.”

Alberta

Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped below US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimated $750 million hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.

The Smith government already projects a $5.2 billion budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion “contingency” for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.

Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.

Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenue rollercoaster that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.

Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high as $25.2 billion in 2022/23 and as low as $2.8 billion in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.

Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.

The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.

Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up a sizeable fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.

Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.

And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create a rainy-day account.

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Alberta

Governments in Alberta should spur homebuilding amid population explosion

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Austin Thompson

In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Alberta has long been viewed as an oasis in Canada’s overheated housing market—a refuge for Canadians priced out of high-cost centres such as Vancouver and Toronto. But the oasis is starting to dry up. House prices and rents in the province have spiked by about one-third since the start of the pandemic. According to a recent Maru poll, more than 70 per cent of Calgarians and Edmontonians doubt they will ever be able to afford a home in their city. Which raises the question: how much longer can this go on?

Alberta’s housing affordability problem reflects a simple reality—not enough homes have been built to accommodate the province’s growing population. The result? More Albertans competing for the same homes and rental units, pushing prices higher.

Population growth has always been volatile in Alberta, but the recent surge, fuelled by record levels of immigration, is unprecedented. Alberta has set new population growth records every year since 2022, culminating in the largest-ever increase of 186,704 new residents in 2024—nearly 70 per cent more than the largest pre-pandemic increase in 2013.

Homebuilding has increased, but not enough to keep pace with the rise in population. In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Moreover, from 1972 to 2019, Alberta added 2.1 new residents (on average) for every housing unit started compared to 3.9 new residents for every housing unit started in 2024. Put differently, today nearly twice as many new residents are potentially competing for each new home compared to historical norms.

While Alberta attracts more Canadians from other provinces than any other province, federal immigration and residency policies drive Alberta’s population growth. So while the provincial government has little control over its population growth, provincial and municipal governments can affect the pace of homebuilding.

For example, recent provincial amendments to the city charters in Calgary and Edmonton have helped standardize building codes, which should minimize cost and complexity for builders who operate across different jurisdictions. Municipal zoning reforms in CalgaryEdmonton and Red Deer have made it easier to build higher-density housing, and Lethbridge and Medicine Hat may soon follow suit. These changes should make it easier and faster to build homes, helping Alberta maintain some of the least restrictive building rules and quickest approval timelines in Canada.

There is, however, room for improvement. Policymakers at both the provincial and municipal level should streamline rules for building, reduce regulatory uncertainty and development costs, and shorten timelines for permit approvals. Calgary, for instance, imposes fees on developers to fund a wide array of public infrastructure—including roads, sewers, libraries, even buses—while Edmonton currently only imposes fees to fund the construction of new firehalls.

It’s difficult to say how long Alberta’s housing affordability woes will endure, but the situation is unlikely to improve unless homebuilding increases, spurred by government policies that facilitate more development.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Austin Thompson

Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute
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