Political realignment in 2024 has changed American politics

From The Center Square

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump face off at the ballot box on Tuesday with control of the U.S. Senate and House up for grabs.

This election cycle has featured unusual alliances and demographic shifts not seen in recent elections.

Billionaire Elon Musk joined former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and former Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to endorse Trump this time around.

Meanwhile, Harris has taken to the campaign trail with former Republican U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, daughter of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney, meaning the iconic Kennedy and Cheney brands are opposing one another yet again, but from the opposite sides this time around.

Those changes come alongside unusual demographic inroads for Trump while men shift more Republican and women favor Democrats, an apparently widening gap for the two sexes.

Union workers, Hispanic voters, and Black voters are traditionally Democratic-favoring demographics that Trump has managed to curry favor with this election.

“He’s changed the makeup of the Republican coalition, and some of them are formerly Democratic,” campaign veteran and former Mitt Romney spokesperson Ryan Williams told The Center Square. “And if you are in a tight race in a purple state, you want to appeal to those voters and try to get them to split their ticket.”

Polling shows that Harris has about 80% support among Black voters nationally. Former President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and President Joe Biden all managed to get between 90% and 95% support from Black voters.

Trump has marginally increased his support among Black voters and made even better strides among Hispanic voters.

As The Center Square previously reported, Noble Predictive Insights published new polling Tuesday reporting that Harris leads Trump with Black voters 78% to 20% and with Hispanic voters 50% to 45%.

“He’s reminiscent of Bush 2004 numbers,” said Williams, now at Targeted Victory, referring to when former President George W. Bush got 40-44% of the Hispanic vote, depending on which survey or analysis you cite.

“Trump can reach out and connect to these voters in a way that my old boss, Mitt Romney, couldn’t,” Williams continued. “That’s not to say that Republicans are going to win these groups, but they are going to lessen the margin which is why I think that this race is so close at this point.

“You are essentially heading into a dead heat in so many states because Trump has managed to slice into traditionally Democratic constituencies and narrow the margins,” he added.

The demographic realignment has a big impact in down-ballot U.S. House and Senate races with 33 Senate seats in the balance. All 435 House seats are up for reelection every two years.

In the Senate, Democrats are defending about twice as many seats as Republicans, painting a tough picture for the party. Republicans are also considered slight favorites to take the U.S. House, according to betting markets.

Democrats have been working hard to resurrect their relationship with Black voters, with Harris rolling out new policies and even Obama chiding Black men about not voting for Harris.

Last month, Obama told a gathering of Black men to vote for Harris and suggested they would not support her because she was a woman, a comment that sparked pushback and criticism for Democrats.

“Respectfully, President Obama, what you said is not acceptable,” ESPN’s most famous host, Stephen A Smith, who is Black, said on one of his shows after the remarks. “Is it possible that the reason some Black folks may not be inclined to vote or may be a bit disenchanted or dare I say may go as far as voting for Trump, is it possible that it’s policy as opposed to misogyny?

“Inflation, the cost of living, the cost of gas, the cost of groceries, that don’t matter?” he continued. “Immigration and our borders and this belief that there’s an elevated level of sensitivity toward them as opposed to Black folks struggling if not starving in this country? Yes that plays a role too.”

Casey Harper

D.C. Bureau Reporter

Related Topics:#CaseyHarper #TheCenterSquare #USElection TrumpHarris USPoliticalRealignment

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Europe’s Heads of State Have Learned Nothing from 170 years of history

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Europe’s Heads of State Have Learned Nothing from 170 years of history

Published on February 26, 2025

Todayville

By John Leake

With the exception of Viktor Orban, Europe’s so-called leaders have a learning disability of miraculous proportions.

While the Congress of Vienna (1815) seemed to inaugurate a new era of hope for peace in Europe, Europe’s leaders couldn’t resist the siren song of bloodyminded pigheadedness that drew them into the Crimean War (1853-1856) in which Britain and France thought it more sensible to side with the Ottoman Turks than with Russia over various religious and territorial disputes in the Black Sea that are now too tedious to recount.

The only redemptive feature of the Crimean War—at least on the British side—is that members of the ruling class that wanted the war were willing to serve on the front line of it. Lieutenant-General James Thomas Brudenell, 7th Earl of Cardigan, was notorious for his aristocratic haughtiness and extravagance. He also achieved legendary status for leading the Charge of the Light Brigade during the Battle of Balaclava, immortalized in Tennyson’s poem.

Watching Cardigan charge directly into a Russian battery, the French commander, Pierre Bosquet remarked: “C’est magnifique, mais ce n’est pas la guerre: c’est de la folie (“It is magnificent, but it is not war: it is madness.”).

At least Lord Cardigan fought his own war.

After the British and French backed the Ottomans against the Russians in the Crimean War, they backed the Russians against the Germans, Austrians, and Ottomans during the Great War of 1914-1918. When it came to drafting the Treaty of Versailles, the Allies were more interested in ascribing blame to the Germans than in making a lasting peace. This led to World War II, when British and the French backed the Russians once again against the Germans and the Austrians—this time with the Turks joining their side.

After World War II, the Americans thought it more important to create a lasting peace than to punish Germany again, so they chose the Marshall Plan instead of the punitive Morganthau Plan.

At the war’s conclusion, erstwhile allies U.S. and Russia, became mortal enemies in a Cold War in which they threatened each other with nuclear annihilation. At the conclusion of the Cold War, Washington decided to revert to the spirit of the Treaty of Versailles to kick Russia while it was down and to maintain a state of enmity with it instead of taking pains to incorporate it into the West.

In its great sagacity, the Trump administration has recognized that there is nothing to be gained for the American people by continuing the U.S. proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. Trump and his people recognize the reality that it would be far better to have a mutually respectful and beneficial relationship with Russia than to continue threatening it and maintaining a state of enmity with it.

Trump starkly contrasts with Europe’s so-called leaders, who wish to keep the Great Game pissing contest with Russia going. Like 15-year-old female rivals on a high school cheerleading squad, they find it more important to ascribe blame in the West’s longstanding conflict with Russia than to find a peaceful solution to it. All the phony expressions of solicitude for the people of Ukraine are pure humbug. Europe’s so-called leaders are perfectly happy to continue sending young Ukrainian men to their deaths and they will work hard to undermine Trump’s efforts to end the killing.

I would wager a large sum that not a single European head of state with the exception of Viktor Orban could—without referring to an Encyclopedia—provide an account of the various disputes, touchy matters of honor, and attributions of blame that were the casus belli of the Crimean War, the Franco-Prussian War, the First World War, or the Second World War. They are ignorant, childish brats who have learned nothing from European history.

I never thought I would say that President Trump must have the patience of a saint to suffer Europe’s irritating parcel of whiny, mercenary, and malevolent wimps.

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Business

Trump: Tariffs on Canada, Mexico to take effect next week

Published on February 26, 2025

Todayville

MxM News

Quick Hit:

President Donald Trump confirmed that a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico will take effect next week. The move is intended to pressure the neighboring countries to take stronger measures against undocumented migration and fentanyl trafficking into the U.S. Despite discussions with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump stated the tariffs will proceed as scheduled.

Key Details:

The tariffs were initially set for February 4 but were delayed by 30 days following conversations with Trudeau and Sheinbaum.
Trump emphasized the need for “reciprocal” tariffs, stating the U.S. has been “mistreated very badly” by many countries.
Canada and Mexico have threatened to retaliate if the tariffs are implemented, which could impact over $900 billion in U.S. imports.

Diving Deeper:

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that his administration will move forward with imposing a 25 percent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican goods, effective next week. The decision aims to pressure the two countries into taking stronger actions to curb undocumented migration and fentanyl trafficking into the United States.

Speaking at a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron, Trump stated, “The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule.” This declaration comes as the new deadline approaches on March 4, after an initial delay of 30 days from February 4, following phone conversations with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

During the press conference, Trump emphasized the broader issue of tariff reciprocity, claiming, “We’ve been mistreated very badly by many countries, not just Canada and Mexico.” He stressed the need for fairness in international trade, stating, “All we want is reciprocal. We want reciprocity. We want the same.”

Although Trump did not explicitly mention fentanyl or migration in his remarks, his statements apply additional pressure on Canada and Mexico to address his administration’s concerns. According to the White House, Trudeau informed Trump on Saturday that Canada has achieved a 90 percent reduction in fentanyl crossing the U.S. Northern Border and that Canada’s Border Czar will visit the U.S. next week for further discussions.

Together, Canada and Mexico account for more than $900 billion in U.S. imports, including vehicles, auto parts, and agricultural products. Both countries have indicated that they will retaliate if the tariffs are imposed. In a concession to inflation concerns, Trump noted that energy imports from Canada would face a lower tariff rate of 10 percent.

The move underscores Trump’s continued focus on securing U.S. borders and achieving trade reciprocity, while also setting the stage for potential trade conflicts with America’s closest trading partners.