From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Wendell Cox

The largest CMA, Toronto, had by far the most significant net internal migration loss at 402,600, Montreal lost 162,700, and Vancouver lost 49,700.

Canadians are fleeing overpriced cities to find more affordable housing. And restrictive urban planning policies are to blame.

Canadians may be solving the housing crisis on their own by moving away from more expensive areas to areas where housing is much more affordable. This trend is highlighted in the latest internal migration data from Statistics Canada.

The data covers 167 areas comprising the entire nation, including Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs), which have populations from 100,000 to seven million. It also includes the smaller Census Agglomerations (CAs), which have a core population of at least 10,000, as well as areas outside CMAs and CAs in each province and territory, which are referred to as “largely rural areas.”

Long-standing migration trends have been virtually reversed. Larger cities (CMAs) now see the highest loss of net internal migrants, while smaller cities (CAs) are experiencing solid gains. Between 2019 and 2023, Canada’s CMAs lost 273,800 net internal migrants to smaller areas, including CAs and largely rural areas. This contrasts sharply with the previous five-year period (2014 to 2018) when CMAs saw only a 1,000-person loss.

So, where did these people go? A significant portion – 108,100 – moved to CAs, which captured 39 per cent of the CMA losses. This is triple that of the previous five years (2014 through 2018).

However, the most notable shift occurred in largely rural areas, which gained 165,700 net internal migrants, representing 61 per cent of CMA losses. This is a dramatic increase compared to the 33,700 net loss in the previous five years.

Among the 167 areas, the migration data is stunning.

The areas experiencing the greatest net internal migration are outside CMAs and CAs. The largely rural area of Ontario saw the biggest gain, with a net increase of 78,300 people – nearly 40 times the number from the previous five years. Meanwhile, rural Quebec placed second, with a net gain of 76,200 people, more than 10 times the increase in the prior five years. The Calgary CMA ranked third (and first among CMAs) at 42,600, followed by the Ottawa Gatineau CMA (Ontario and Quebec) at 36,700 and the Oshawa CMA at 34,900.

The largest CMA, Toronto, had by far the most significant net internal migration loss at 402,600, Montreal lost 162,700, and Vancouver lost 49,700. Outside these CMAs, nearly all areas posted net gains.

People have also started moving to the Maritimes. The Halifax CMA tripled its previous gain (21,300). In New Brunswick, Moncton nearly quadrupled its gain (7,000). Modest gains were also made in Fredericton and Saint John as well as in Charlottetown in Prince Edward Island.

Meanwhile, housing affordability in Canada’s largest CMAs has become grim. Toronto’s median house price to median household income has doubled in less than two decades. Vancouver’s prices have tripled relative to incomes in five decades. Montreal’s house prices nearly doubled relative to incomes over two decades.

These CMAs (and others) have housing policies typical of the international planning orthodoxy, which seeks to make cities denser. In effect, they have declared war against “urban sprawl,” trying to stop any material expansion of urbanization. These urban containment policies, which include greenbelts, agricultural reserves, urban growth boundaries and compact city strategies, are associated with the worst housing affordability. Land prices are skewed upward throughout the market. Demand continues to increase ahead of incomes, but the supply of low-cost suburban land, so crucial to controlling costs, is frozen.

Regrettably, some areas where people have fled are also subject to urban containment and housing affordability has deteriorated rapidly. Between 2015 and 2022, prices in Ontario CMAs London, Guelph, Brantford and St. Catharines have about doubled. BC’s Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island have seen similar increases. Those moving to these areas are ahead financially, but the rapidly rising house prices are closing opportunities.

There are proposals to restore housing affordability, though none tackle the urban containment policies associated with the price increases. Indeed, we have not found a single metropolitan area where housing affordability has been restored with the market distortions of the intensity that have developed in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal (not in our Demographia International Housing Affordability report or elsewhere). Such markets have become unsustainable for most new entrant households because they cannot afford to live there.

Housing is not a commodity. Households have varying preferences, from ground-oriented housing (detached and townhomes) to high-rise condos. Indeed, a growing body of literature associates detached housing with higher total fertility rates. According to Statistics Canada, Canadians have favoured lower densities for decades, a trend that continued through the 2021 Census, a trend that continued through the 2021 Census, according to Statistics Canada.

With governments (virtually around the world) failing to maintain stable and affordable housing markets, it’s not surprising people are taking matters into their own hands. Until fundamental reforms can be implemented in the most expensive markets, those seeking a better quality of life will have no choice but to leave.

First published in the Financial Post.

Wendell Cox is a senior fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy and the author of Demographia International Housing Affordability.

Citizens of western nations all over the world have been dumbfounded by the absolute collapse of immigration services in country after country.  Until very recently, agencies in charge of the flow of people into their nations did a reasonable job of securing borders.  Then something changed.

What used to be a trickle of illegal immigrants has turned into a torrent of millions.  Since 2020, over ten million illegals have entered the southern US. This week San Diego’s former Border Patrol Chief Agent Aaron Heitke testified at a hearing by the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security that far more than ten million illegals have entered.  Heitke says border patrol agents were so entirely overwhelmed “80% to 90%, sometimes 100% of the agents on duty [were taken] away from” the southwest border. There were miles of the border unmanned in Texas, Arizona and California, he said, where there was “no agent presence for weeks and months at a time.” This means of course that the unofficial number of migrant “gotaways” is far larger than the already shocking official numbers.

In Canada, illegal immigrants take a different path but the results are similar in terms of the percentage of immigrants compared to the general population.  Most undocumented migrants in the US pour in through the southern border.  Canada’s undocumented migrants tend to enter the county legally as refugee claimants, or with valid student, work, or visitor visas.  Then they simply stay.  While the official immigration numbers are in the 500,000 range, the undocumented migrants are easily twice that number.  As a result Canada’s population is absolutely skyrocketing, putting pressure on anyone trying to buy a home, making a lot more competition for entry level jobs, and contributing to inflation as the economy plays catch up with the number of consumers.

The influx of people into western nations has caught citizens off guard.  The question is, are the governments of western nations also surprised? It’s obvious that something is broken. The way our governments protect borders has changed in each of these nations (and it’s different in nations where people can simply walk over the border compared to nations like Canada and the UK where that’s not possible).

Another question is, who’s even looking into this? In times past we’d expect governments to hold inquiries into such nation challenging events.  Failing that, the media would be up in arms, demanding government officials do their jobs and investigating how things fell apart.  In nation after nation, the traditional media doesn’t seem all that interested. Surprising, because with an election bearing down on America, alternative news sites are reporting growing concerns millions of illegal immigrants will have access to voter registration forms and may help to choose the next President.

A research organization called Centre for Immigration Studies has found itself swamped in the 2020’s trying to keep track of what’s happening and who’s coming to the US. The Executive Director of The Center for Immigration Studies testified this week at an Oversite Committee Hearing into Biden Immigration Policies. The CIS is the nation’s only think tank devoted exclusively to the research of U.S. immigration policy to inform policymakers and the public about immigration’s far-reaching impact. Executive Director Mark Krikorian is one of the few people watching government specifically to answer questions such as “Is the largest border crisis in history some kind of accident?”  His answer is stunning and disturbing.

“The largest border crisis in the history of our country, probably the largest such event in human history, began on January 20th, 2021, ON PURPOSE, not due to incompetence.”

FINALLY some truth-telling in Congress!pic.twitter.com/l97R9uuPCq

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) September 19, 2024

While this testimony applies to the United States, it very likely points to similar situations in other western nations.  The question for Canadians is, who’d looking into this in Canada?