Opinion
PM Trudeau’s “Monetary Policy” gaffe could cost the Liberals the election. But will it?
Back in 1993 things were not going well for Canada’s Progressive Conservative Government. Brian Mulroney’s government had served 2 mandates and Canadians were clearly ready to move on. The Conservatives decided Kim Campbell would be the best leader to bring a renewed excitement to their reelection hopes. Campbell was a fresh face and that was important to the party which was losing support quickly. She was also from Vancouver, which was a nice change for the party normally represented by leaders from Ontario or Quebec. Even more importantly, when she won the leadership she would become the first female leader of a country in North America. As Canadians would discover just a few months later though, no one cared about any of that. That campaign did not go well. The Conservatives not only lost. They were decimated right out of official party standing. The governing party won just 2 seats in the entire nation (Jean Charest in Quebec, and Elsie Wayne in New Brunswick). Kim Campbell did not even win her own seat. Henceforth the Reform Party represented the Conservative voice for the next two elections.
For one reason or another, Canadians simply did not connect with Kim Campbell. One of the biggest gaffes of that election campaign came when a reporter pressed Campbell for details on an issue and she replied “The election is not a time to discuss serious issues.” That was the wrong answer. Despite what she may have truly meant, all Canadians heard was “I don’t need to explain anything to you.”. That was exactly the wrong thing to say at the worst possible time.
Why bring this up now, 28 years later? Well Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made his first major gaffe of this election campaign. And for those who care about monetary policy (which should be everyone who pays taxes and works or has savings, etc) it’s very likely as stunning a statement as Kim Campbell made three decades ago.
First some background. In 2021, Canadians find themselves in an astounding situation. When the covid pandemic hit last year governments all over the world shut down their economies for weeks, and then months. Government stimulus was the order of the day and Canada’s was among the most generous in the world. People were paid to stay at home. Businesses were paid to continue to provide jobs to people working from home. Landlords were paid to keep tenants afloat. All in all, government money is being spent at unprecedented rates.
To pay for all this the Trudeau government attempted to pass a bill through Parliament which would allow it to raise taxes at will without a budget and without even coming back to ask Parliament to present a plan or ask for approval. That didn’t go over so well. But instead of turning back the taps, or introducing a budget with higher taxes the government worked out a plan with the Bank of Canada. How this works basically is that every month the Bank of Canada prints out a few billion dollars, and the government uses that to pay for all the stimulus they want. Over the first year of covid that totalled about 350 Billion dollars!
The Bank of Canada has left the core function expressed in its mandate in order to print all this extra money. Despite it’s best efforts to decouple inflation from the printing of extra money, it’s not working. Canada’s inflation rate has been blowing through the target of 2% month after month after month.
This is the the mandate as expressed by the Bank of Canada itself on its website.
The Bank of Canada is the nation’s central bank. Its mandate, as defined in the Bank of Canada Act, is “to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada.” The Bank’s vision is to be a leading central bank—dynamic, engaged and trusted—committed to a better Canada.
The Bank has four core functions:
- Monetary policy: The Bank’s monetary policy framework aims to keep inflation low, stable and predictable.
- Financial system: The Bank promotes safe, sound and efficient financial systems within Canada and internationally.
- Currency: The Bank designs, issues and distributes Canada’s bank notes.
- Funds management: The Bank acts as fiscal agent for the Government of Canada, managing its public debt programs and foreign exchange reserves.
The Bank of Canada’s mandate is expiring at the end of this year and the new mandate could change. Some are saying the Bank should continue to print money at an unprecedented rate and Canadians will learn to live with high inflation. Considering this drives up the cost of everything from our homes and vehicles, to the food we eat there could hardly be a more important issue. That’s why PM Trudeau’s response to this question in Vancouver this week is so stunning. When asked if he would consider a higher tolerance for inflation going forward here’s what he said.
Reporter Question about the renewal of the Bank of Canada mandate due at the end of 2021:
-Do you have thoughts about that mandate? Would you consider a slightly higher tolerance for inflation?
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: “When I think about the biggest, most important economic policy this government, if re-elected, would move forward, you’ll forgive me if I don’t think about monetary policy.”
Of course this spurred an immediate reaction from the opposition Conservatives. That oppostion is perhaps best summed up in this address from Pierre Poilievre.
The question is, will Canadians punish Prime Minister Trudeau for either lacking basic economic knowledge, or not caring about it? Kim Campbell failed to win her own seat, but she did not seem to connect well with Canadians at all even before that election campaign. Justin Trudeau has so far been immune to gaffes. Even though he’s had more than 5 years in government, millions of Canadians stand by him loyally. Will this time be any different?
armed forces
Top Brass Is On The Run Ahead Of Trump’s Return
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By Morgan Murphy
With less than a month to go before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, the top brass are already running for cover. This week the Army’s chief of staff, Gen. Randy George, pledged to cut approximately a dozen general officers from the U.S. Army.
It is a start.
But given the Army is authorized 219 general officers, cutting just 12 is using a scalpel when a machete is in order. At present, the ratio of officers to enlisted personnel stands at an all-time high. During World War II, we had one general for every 6,000 troops. Today, we have one for every 1,600.
Right now, the United States has 1.3 million active-duty service members according to the Defense Manpower Data Center. Of those, 885 are flag officers (fun fact: you get your own flag when you make general or admiral, hence the term “flag officer” and “flagship”). In the reserve world, the ratio is even worse. There are 925 general and flag officers and a total reserve force of just 760,499 personnel. That is a flag for every 674 enlisted troops.
The hallways at the Pentagon are filled with a constellation of stars and the legions of staffers who support them. I’ve worked in both the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Starting around 2011, the Joint Staff began to surge in scope and power. Though the chairman of the Joint Chiefs is not in the chain of command and simply serves as an advisor to the president, there are a staggering 4,409 people working for the Joint Staff, including 1,400 civilians with an average salary of $196,800 (yes, you read that correctly). The Joint Staff budget for 2025 is estimated by the Department of Defense’s comptroller to be $1.3 billion.
In contrast, the Secretary of Defense — the civilian in charge of running our nation’s military — has a staff of 2,646 civilians and uniformed personnel. The disparity between the two staffs threatens the longstanding American principle of civilian control of the military.
Just look at what happens when civilians in the White House or the Senate dare question the ranks of America’s general class. “Politicizing the military!” critics cry, as if the Commander-in-Chief has no right to question the judgement of generals who botched the withdrawal from Afghanistan, bought into the woke ideology of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) or oversaw over-budget and behind-schedule weapons systems. Introducing accountability to the general class is not politicizing our nation’s military — it is called leadership.
What most Americans don’t understand is that our top brass is already very political. On any given day in our nation’s Capitol, a casual visitor is likely to run into multiple generals and admirals visiting our elected representatives and their staff. Ostensibly, these “briefs” are about various strategic threats and weapons systems — but everyone on the Hill knows our military leaders are also jockeying for their next assignment or promotion. It’s classic politics
The country witnessed this firsthand with now-retired Gen. Mark Milley. Most Americans were put off by what they saw. Milley brazenly played the Washington spin game, bragging in a Senate Armed Services hearing that he had interviewed with Bob Woodward and a host of other Washington, D.C. reporters.
Woodward later admitted in an interview with CNN that he was flabbergasted by Milley, recalling the chairman hadn’t just said “[Trump] is a problem or we can’t trust him,” but took it to the point of saying, “he is a danger to the country. He is the most dangerous person I know.” Woodward said that Milley’s attitude felt like an assignment editor ordering him, “Do something about this.”
Think on that a moment — an active-duty four star general spoke on the record, disparaging the Commander-in-Chief. Not only did it show rank insubordination and a breach of Uniform Code of Military Justice Article 88, but Milley’s actions represented a grave threat against the Constitution and civilian oversight of the military.
How will it play out now that Trump has returned? Old political hands know that what goes around comes around. Milley’s ham-handed political meddling may very well pave the way for a massive reorganization of flag officers similar to Gen. George C. Marshall’s “plucking board” of 1940. Marshall forced 500 colonels into retirement saying, “You give a good leader very little and he will succeed; you give mediocrity a great deal and they will fail.”
Marshall’s efforts to reorient the War Department to a meritocracy proved prescient when the United States entered World War II less than two years later.
Perhaps it’s time for another plucking board to remind the military brass that it is their civilian bosses who sit at the top of the U.S. chain of command.
Morgan Murphy is military thought leader, former press secretary to the Secretary of Defense and national security advisor in the U.S. Senate.
Business
For the record—former finance minister did not keep Canada’s ‘fiscal powder dry’
From the Fraser Institute
By Ben Eisen
In case you haven’t heard, Chrystia Freeland resigned from cabinet on Monday. Reportedly, the straw that broke the camel’s back was Prime Minister Trudeau’s plan to send all Canadians earning up to $150,000 a onetime $250 tax “rebate.” In her resignation letter, Freeland seemingly took aim at this ill-advised waste of money by noting “costly political gimmicks.” She could not have been more right, as my colleagues and I have written here, here and elsewhere.
Indeed, Freeland was right to excoriate the government for a onetime rebate cheque that would do nothing to help Canada’s long-term economic growth prospects, but her reasoning was curious given her record in office. She wrote that such gimmicks were unwise because Canada must keep its “fiscal powder dry” given the possibility of trade disputes with the United States.
Again, to a large extent Freeland’s logic is sound. Emergencies come up from time to time, and governments should be particularly frugal with public dollars during non-emergency periods so money is available when hard times come.
For example, the federal government’s generally restrained approach to spending during the 1990s and 2000s was an important reason Canada went into the pandemic with its books in better shape than most other countries. This is an example of how keeping “fiscal powder dry” can help a government be ready when emergencies strike.
However, much of the sentiment in Freeland’s resignation letter does not match her record as finance minister.
Of course, during the pandemic and its immediate aftermath, it’s understandable that the federal government ran large deficits. However, several years have now past and the Trudeau government has run large continuous deficits. This year, the government forecasts a $48.3 billion deficit, which is larger than the $40 billion target the government had previously set.
A finance minister committed to keeping Canada’s fiscal powder dry would have pushed for balanced budgets so Ottawa could start shrinking the massive debt burden accumulated during COVID. Instead, deficits persisted and debt has continued to climb. As a result, federal debt may spike beyond levels reached during the pandemic if another emergency strikes.
Minister Freeland’s reported decision to oppose the planned $250 onetime tax rebates is commendable. But we should be cautious not to rewrite history. Despite Freeland’s stated desire to keep Canada’s “fiscal powder dry,” this was not the story of her tenure as finance minister. Instead, the story is one of continuous deficits and growing debt, which have hurt Canada’s capacity to withstand the next fiscal emergency whenever it does arrive.
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