National
Paul Wells, Jen Gerson, and Justin Ling on Freeland and the Liberals’ future, if any
A recording from Paul Wells’s live video
We were already planning to do a live video chat featuring a few of us Canadian Substack types, but events led us to move faster than planned. So at noon Eastern on Monday I hosted Justin Ling from Bugeyed and Shameless and Jen Gerson from The Line.
The topic: Chrystia Freeland’s resignation from cabinet; what the hell the Liberal Party can expect next, and what it should do; and the importance for Mark Carney of using his words to demonstrate a willingness to influence events, rather than merely benefiting from them.
I had other quite prominent figures from Canadian punditry standing by to join the conversation, but these chats are capped at three participants and I decided to end the conversation at a reasonable length, so we’ll just have to do it again sometime with a rotating cast.
Thanks to the 2,300 people who joined us live, and I hope the rest of you enjoy this video archive.
Paul Wells
Alberta
Jasper rebuilding delayed as province waits for federal and local government approvals
From Jason Nixon, MLA for Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre and Alberta’s Minister of Seniors, Community and Social Services on X
Alberta’s government immediately took action to support those who lost their homes in the Jasper wildfire. We were on track to deliver 250 homes, but Alberta cannot do this without land. It’s been radio silence from Ottawa since Premier Danielle Smith sent a letter to the Prime Minister nearly a month ago. Read my full statement
Business
Trudeau leaves office with worst economic growth record in recent Canadian history
From the Fraser Institute
By Ben Eisen
In the days following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as leader of the Liberal Party, there has been much ink spilt about his legacy. One effusively positive review of Trudeau’s tenure claimed that his successors “will be hard-pressed to improve on his economic track record.”
But this claim is difficult to square with the historical record, which shows the economic story of the Trudeau years has been one of dismal growth. Indeed, when the growth performance of Canada’s economy is properly measured, Trudeau has the worst record of any prime minister in recent history.
There’s no single perfect measure of economic success. However, growth in inflation-adjusted per-person GDP—an indicator of living standards and incomes—remains an important and broad measure. In short, it measures how quickly the economy is growing while adjusting for inflation and population growth.
Back when he was first running for prime minister in 2015, Trudeau recognized the importance of long-term economic growth, often pointing to slow growth under his predecessor Stephen Harper. On the campaign trail, Trudeau blasted Harper for having the “worst record on economic growth since R.B. Bennett in the depths of the Great Depression.”
And growth during the Harper years was indeed slow. The Harper government endured the 2008/09 global financial crisis and subsequent weak recovery, particularly in Ontario. During Harper’s tenure as prime minister, per-person GDP growth was 0.5 per cent annually—which is lower than his predecessors Brian Mulroney (0.8 per cent) and Jean Chrétien (2.4 per cent).
So, growth was weak under Harper, but Trudeau misdiagnosed the causes. Shortly after taking office, Trudeau said looser fiscal policy—with more spending, borrowing and bigger deficits—would help spur growth in Canada (and indeed around the world).
Trudeau’s government acted on this premise, boosting spending and running deficits—but Trudeau’s approach did not move the needle on growth. In fact, things went from bad to worse. Annual per-person GDP growth under Trudeau (0.3 per cent) was even worse than under Harper.
The reasons for weak economic growth (under Harper and Trudeau) are complicated. But when it comes to performance, there’s no disputing that Trudeau’s record is worse than any long-serving prime minister in recent history. According to our recent study published by the Fraser Institute, which compared the growth performance of the five most recent long-serving prime ministers, annual per-person GDP growth was highest under Chrétien followed by Martin, Mulroney, Harper and Justin Trudeau.
Of course, some defenders will blame COVID for Trudeau’s poor economic growth record, but you can’t reasonably blame the steep but relatively short pandemic-related recession for nearly a decade of stagnation.
There’s no single perfect measure of economic performance, but per-person inflation-adjusted economic growth is an important and widely-used measure of economic success and prosperity. Despite any claims to the contrary, Justin Trudeau’s legacy on economic growth is—in historical terms—dismal. All Canadians should hope that his successor has more success and oversees faster growth in the years ahead.
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