From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Maureen McCall

With U.S. tariffs looming, Premiers push for border security, pipelines, and interprovincial trade reform

After more than eight years of federal policies that have challenged the oil and gas industry, imagining Canadian energy policy in a post-Trudeau era is no easy task.

However, recent meetings addressing the threat of United States tariffs may offer hope for revisiting energy policies through provincial collaboration.

The January 2025 Council of the Federation meetings, attended by all 13 provincial and territorial premiers, produced several key value propositions.

• After spending a week in Washington, D.C., meeting with Donald Trump and his administration, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith highlighted the provinces’ resource strengths.
• British Columbia can leverage germanium—a critical mineral essential in defence applications that China will no longer export to the U.S.
• Saskatchewan’s uranium supply offers an alternative to reliance on Kazakhstan and Russia.
• Canadian provinces can provide resources that align with U.S. energy goals.

Any provincial initiatives must also address U.S. priorities, including tighter border security and increased defence spending.

To meet U.S. energy security needs, Canada must remove policy barriers hindering development. Policies like the Clean Energy Regulations (CER), the emissions cap, and the net-zero vehicle mandate (starting January 2026) are significant challenges. Provinces must collaborate to amend or remove these policies, ensuring they do not survive the next federal election. Alberta and Saskatchewan have already opposed the CER, and the proposed emissions cap remains under review.

The federal government acknowledges that these policies must be re-evaluated to avoid obstructing shared energy goals, including:

• carbon pollution pricing
• methane regulations
• clean fuel standards
• carbon capture incentives
• emissions reduction funding
• clean growth programs
• best-in-class guidelines for new oil and gas projects under federal review.

The U.S.’s energy deficit—20 million barrels consumed daily versus 13 million produced—creates an opportunity for Canada. Achieving this requires dismantling interprovincial trade barriers and developing infrastructure projects from coast to coast. The Council meetings have initiated such collaboration, with ongoing bilateral discussions expected. Infrastructure projects like pipelines to the East and West coasts would enable Canada to supply the U.S. and other global markets, reducing reliance on hostile regimes.

Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey stated: “I see energy as Canada’s queen in the game of chess. We don’t need to expose our queen this early. The opposition needs to know that the queen exists, but they don’t need to know what we’re going to do with the queen.”

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have rejected measures that would affect Canada’s energy exports to the U.S.

“When you look at the pipeline system, how oil is actually transported into the U.S. and back into Canada,” Moe said, “it would be very difficult, and I think impossible operationally to even consider.” Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew emphasized the importance of national unity, stating that energy decisions must not fracture the country. Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned that tariffs could cost Ontario 500,000 jobs, while P.E.I. Premier Dennis King noted that tariffs could cost 25 per cent of P.E.I.’s GDP and 14,000 jobs—a catastrophic loss for the province.

The Council meetings highlighted three key priorities:

• Demonstrate Canada’s commitment to border security and meet its two per cent GDP NATO target.
• Build oil and gas pipelines east and west to diversify markets and remove interprovincial trade barriers, enabling a stronger national economy.
• Secure provincial consent before imposing export tariffs or restrictions that could harm individual provinces.

This emerging consensus underscores that Canada’s energy future depends on proactive, constructive diplomacy with U.S. lawmakers, supported by a unified provincial front and practical energy policies that benefit both nations.

Maureen McCall is an energy business analyst and Fellow at the Frontier Center for Public Policy. She writes on energy issues for EnergyNow and the BOE Report. She has 20 years of experience as a business analyst for national and international energy companies in Canada.

MxM News

Quick Hit:

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has vowed to retaliate against President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canadian goods by cutting electricity exports to the U.S. Ford made the statement at a Toronto mining convention, warning that America “needs to feel the pain” if it imposes the tariffs. The move underscores rising tensions as Trump enforces stricter trade measures, citing national security and economic interests.

Key Details:

• Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he would halt electricity exports to the U.S. “with a smile” if Trump’s tariffs go into effect.
• Ford pledged to match U.S. tariffs dollar-for-dollar, emphasizing Canada’s role as a major energy supplier to America.
• Trump confirmed that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect Tuesday, with no further negotiations.

Diving Deeper:

Tensions between Canada and the U.S. escalated Monday after Ontario Premier Doug Ford signaled he is ready to retaliate against President Trump’s tariffs by cutting off electricity exports. Speaking at a mining convention in Toronto, Ford declared, “If they want to try to annihilate Ontario, I will do everything — including cut off their energy with a smile on my face.”

Ford, whose province is a key supplier of electricity to several U.S. states, emphasized that America depends on Canada’s energy exports and should “feel the pain” if it moves forward with the trade penalties. “They rely on our energy,” Ford said. “They want to come at us hard, we’re going to come back twice as hard.”

The premier also indicated that he is aligned with Canada’s federal government in opposing the tariffs. “The provinces have a big say in it, but it’s the federal government that’s leading the charge, and we’re going to stand shoulder-to-shoulder no matter who’s in the federal government.” Ford said he intends to implement matching tariffs, stating, “That’s exactly what we’re going to do.”

President Trump confirmed that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect Tuesday, signaling there is no room left for negotiations after a previous one-month delay. Trump initially held off on the tariffs following discussions with Canadian and Mexican leaders, but after what he described as insufficient action on border security and drug trafficking, he decided to move forward. “The tariffs, they’re all set. They go into effect tomorrow,” Trump said, adding that “no room” remained for Canada or Mexico to strike a deal before the deadline.

The president also reiterated his call for manufacturers to shift operations to the U.S. to avoid penalties. “What they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs,” Trump said.

With the trade dispute intensifying, it remains unclear how far Ford is willing to push his threats, but his rhetoric signals growing frustration north of the border. Whether Canada follows through with a retaliatory energy cutoff could have major implications for U.S. states reliant on Ontario’s power grid.