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Odds Are Good Your Team Will Never Win A Title In Your Lifetime

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“There’s no failure in sports. There’s good days, bad days, some days you’re able to be successful, some days you’re not. Some days it’s your turn, some days it’s not your turn. That’s what sports is about. You don’t always win. Some other people’s going to win. And this year somebody else is going to win. Simple as that.” Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo on losing in the playoffs last spring.

Antetokounmpo was simply stating the obvious math. In a time where leagues are 30 or 32 teams, media expectations are rooted in the odds of a 12- or 14-team league when playoffs were just two rounds. There’s luck and sheer numbers working against your team. Fans follow this standard that your team must win titles or be forever damned. The closer a club gets the greater the expectations.

Still reporters demanded accountability from the man who’d helped the Bucks to the 2021 NBA title. But Giannis turned it back on reporter Eric Nehm . “Oh my god. You asked me the same question last year, Eric. Do you get a promotion every year on your job? No, right? So, every year your work is a failure? Yes or no? No. Every year you work, you work toward something, toward a goal, right? Which is to get a promotion, to be able to take care of your family, provide a house for them or take care of your parents. It’s not a failure, it’s steps to success.

He has a point. In the modern age failure is relative. The traditional poster boys for “failure” are the Buffalo Bills from 1992 to 1996. After wining the AFC every one of those years Marv Levy’s team went to four Super Bowls and lost every one of them, branding them forever in the media and fan perspective as losers.

No other team has ever made four consecutive Super Bowls. Kansas City made four title games in five years. None have made it to three straight Super Bowls. The Detroit Lions have zero Super Bowl appearances before this season and have won just three times in the postseason since their NFL championship in 1957.

Even in a league with 28 teams, the Bills’ feat was remarkable. Unprecedented. And yet, because they lost all four consecutive championship games they’re an avatar of failure. When compared to dynasties such as the 1970s Miami Dolphins (two Super bowls) or the 1980s-90s San Francisco 49ers (5 Super Bowls) the Bills are seen as chokers or losers. The New England Patriots’ winning six SBs from 2002-2016 are the real outlier.)

The current poster boys for hockey failure are the Toronto Maple Leafs, without an NHL championship since 1967. That year was also the last time the Leafs appeared in the Final series. They have since made the final four five times, the most recent being 2002 when Boston dispatched them. Most fans of the team, as well as most hockey fans, see them as a punchline. But in these times of bloated leagues, a semifinal appearance is the equivalent of making it to the Finals in the six-team league of 1967.

Fans and contemporary media still think they we are living in a time when every club, given a little luck and a good draft, will reward its fans with a champions parade. That’s what the mania for parity and salary caps was about. Balancing the draft would give everyone a shot at a star who’d take them to the holy land. But with 30 or 32 teams that formula doesn’t work. There’s just one Stanley Cup. One Lombardi Trophy. And 31 disappointed fan bases.

Where the 1955-60 Montreal Canadiens, 1976-80 Habs, 1981-84 New York Islanders and 1984-1988 Edmonton Oilers defined clutch with multiple Cups in consecutive or near-consecutive seasons, today’s gold standard is closer to two and done. Detroit won four Cups but it was between 1997 and 2008. Chicago won three Cups in five years (2010-2015). Pittsburgh had three Cups in eight years (2009-2017) .

Basketball (with its smaller rosters) still has super teams dominated by LeBron James and Steph Curry. But the NFL and MLB lack the traditional domination by repeat champions. Since 2000 only the San Francisco Giants have three titles and those were from 2010-2014). While the big-budget Dodgers and Yankees have been perennial playoff teams they haven’t dominated the current 30-team league as they did in the 1970s-1990s.

It’s likely that with the NHL talking about 36 teams fans of many of those clubs will not see their team win a title in their lifetime. Parity will sound nice coming from the league, but after decades of coming up short, the odds say fans shouldn’t be praying for a title.

As Giannis says, we need a new standard of success. Michael Jordan’s great accomplishment wasn’t simply the title he brought to the Bulls, it was the totality of seasons in which his club was a viable contender. “There’s always steps to it,” said Antetokounmpo. “Michael Jordan played 15 years, won six championships. The other nine years was a failure? That’s what you’re telling me?

In our book Ice Storm on the 2008-2013 Vancouver Canucks, GM Mike Gillis made the same point when describing his formula for success with a team that has gone longest without a Cup. Understanding the place luck and injuries play, he said his description for success was having a contending team that had a puncher’s chance every year and, eventually, a title winner. Yes, there would be down years. On average, however, it would reap tiles and profits for owners.

But Gillis’ owner, Francesco Aquilini, who’d originally subscribed to this formula, panicked when a near-miss for the Cup in 2011 was followed by two first-round eliminations in subsequent years. The bleating of disappointed season-ticket holders and the criticism from hostile media moved Aquilini to replace Gills with local hero Trevor Linden. The Canucks then missed the playoffs in eight of the next eleven seasons.

Setting too high a bar is a recipe for failure to any management. Explaining the rarity of a semifinal appearance— as Giannis did— can lessen the stress. But until media cite a more realistic standard it’s unlikely anyone will cut teams losing in the playoff any slack. They may well ask what’s in it for them when owners cash a fat expansion fee and push a Cup that much further away.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

BRUCE DOWBIGGIN Award-winning Author and Broadcaster Bruce Dowbiggin's career is unmatched in Canada for its diversity and breadth of experience . He is currently the editor and publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster website and is also a contributor to SiriusXM Canada Talks. His new book Cap In Hand was released in the fall of 2018. Bruce's career has included successful stints in television, radio and print. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster for his work with CBC-TV, Mr. Dowbiggin is also the best-selling author of "Money Players" (finalist for the 2004 National Business Book Award) and two new books-- Ice Storm: The Rise and Fall of the Greatest Vancouver Canucks Team Ever for Greystone Press and Grant Fuhr: Portrait of a Champion for Random House. His ground-breaking investigations into the life and times of Alan Eagleson led to his selection as the winner of the Gemini for Canada's top sportscaster in 1993 and again in 1996. This work earned him the reputation as one of Canada's top investigative journalists in any field. He was a featured columnist for the Calgary Herald (1998-2009) and the Globe & Mail (2009-2013) where his incisive style and wit on sports media and business won him many readers.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

Are the Jays Signing Or Declining? Only Vladdy & Bo Know For Sure

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We were watching the Los Angeles Dodgers home opener on Thursday. The defending World Series champs came from behind to beat Detroit 5-4. The big hit was a three-run homer from a player named Teoscar Hernandez off AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal

If that name sounds familiar, Teoscar was a Toronto Blue Jay from 2018-2022. He pounded 121 homers in the span as part of the Jays’ order. But when Toronto decided it needed bullpen help he was traded to Seattle in 2022 for pitchers Erik Swanson and Adam Macko. While Swanson has battled injuries and Macko is no-go, Hernandez keeps pounding the ball.

In his one year in Seattle he had strikeout problems but did hit 26 homers with 93 RBIs. In the winter of 2023-24 he signed as a free agent with the aforementioned Dodgers. Batting behind Shohei Ohtani he launched 33 homers and 99 RBIs. He won the All Star Home Run Derby. His key hit in Game 5 of the World Series propelled L.A. to the title. The stacked Dodgers liked him enough to give him a three-year, $66 million contract.

Why are we telling you this? Because the Blue Jays also started their 2025 season at home, matched against the Baltimore Orioles. And while there are reasons to believe the Jays will not replicate their 74-win disaster of 2024, there remain the old bugaboos of injuries and pitching. In the four games against the division rivals they need to beat, Jays’ pitching gave up 24 runs while scoring 18—nine of them in one game.

The splashy acquisition of 40 year old HOF pitcher Max Scherzer has already gone sideways as a bad thumb has put him on the IL. The new stopper, Jeff Hoffman, was rejected on medical grounds by two other teams before Toronto’s money made him healthy. The rest of the bullpen— a disaster in 2024— got off to a rocky start with Orioles hitters playing BP against them. They’ve already DFA’d one pitcher and called up two more from the minors. The re-made pen performed well in Game 4, but how it holds up in their next 158 games is a mystery.

On offence, while their rivals in Boston and New York added sexy pieces to their rosters the Jays were only able to acquire veteran switch-hitting Baltimore slugger Anthony Santander. More typical of their other signees is ex-Cleveland 2B infielder Andres Giminez who in 2023 had the lowest average exit velocity of all AL batters (84.8 mph), and led the AL in percentage of balls that were softly hit (21.7%). He does play a slick second base.

The winter story line for the Jays offence was what to do about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, the erstwhile star-dust twins who were— along with Cavan Biggio— supposed to guarantee titles when they emerged in 2019. Biggio is gone, so the other two carry the credibility of the management team of Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins. From the outside the Jays seem paralyzed to act.

While the Jays dithered, the price for players like Guerrero and Bichette soared. Using Juan Soto’s Mets $765 M deal as a yardstick Guerrero turned down a Jays offer of just under $600 M, saying he was done talking during the season. If Shapiro/ Atkins had anticipated the market Guerrero would have cost a lot less in 2023-24. If there is no progress by the trading deadline the Jays will be forced to get what they can in a trade.

Shortstop Bichette— a gifted player who battled injuries in 2024—is likewise up for a new deal. He has started strong in 2025 and would command a handsome return in a trade. He says the Jays are waiting to see what happens with Guerrero first.  Having sold the pair for years to their loyal fans, having to trade them will be a massive PR blow. And while Jays’ national audience can be an advantage, having a whole country pissed with you is devastating.

The rest of the secret sauce for a Toronto comeback revolves around one of their hitting prospects taking a step forward. Any/ all of Will Wagner, Alan Roden, Addison Barger or Leo Jimenez can have a job if they show their bats are for real. Otherwise Shapiro and Atkins will hope that Dalton Varsho, George Springer and Alejandro Kirk can find a little magic in their aging bats.

A failure to retain talent may prompt fans to recall that Rogers decided that Shapiro and Atkins, who dumped Teoscar, were worthy replacements for the previous GM who’d walked away. The man Schneider and Atkins were hired to improve upon— Canadian Alex Anthopoulos— has made the Atlanta Braves a dominant team. Since AA moved to Atlanta they’ve won 90, 97, 38 (Covid year), 88, 101, 104, 109, 89 games. They’ve won a World Series and two other playoff series. They won six straight NL East titles before injuries sank them last year.

The Braves have developed young everyday superstars like Ronald Acuńa Jr. who don’t get picked off second base. They have built a pitching staff largely from within, not splashy FA signings. They have swagger without cockiness. They are set for years to come.

The Blue Jays? Since AA left they’ve won 73, 67, 32 (Covid), 91, 92, 89, 74 games. They’ve won zero postseason games while missing the playoffs in four seasons. The players they traded are starring for other teams in the postseason. They are again employing an inexperienced company guy as manager.

While it’s true that the sun can’t shine on the same team every day, Jays fans believe it would be nice if the great orb would find their club as it did back in the 1992/93 World Series days. Instead of the reflected glory of past stars winning for other teams. Patience is thin. And time is ticking.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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From Heel To Hero: George Foreman’s Uniquely American Story

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“The more you learn, the more you realize how much you don’t know.”— George Foreman

For those who thought Donald Trump’s role progression (in WWE terms) from face to heel to face again was remarkable, George Foreman had already written the media book on going from the Baddest Man in the World to Gentle Giant.

It’s hard for those who saw him as the genial Grill Master or the smiling man with  seven sons all named George (he also had seven daughters, each named differently) to conjure up the Foreman of the 1970s. He emerged as a star at the 1968 Olympics, winning the gold medal in heavyweight boxing. His destruction of a veteran Soviet fighter made him a political hero. In an age that already boasted a remarkable heavyweights Foreman was something unique.

Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier, Ken Norton, Ron Lyle and Jimmy Ellis were still bankable household names for boxing fans— but on the downside of famous careers. They each had their niche. Foreman was something altogether different. Violent and pitiless in the ring. Unsmiling as he dismantled the boxers he met on his way to the top. He was the ultimate black hat.

With the inimitable Howard Cosell as his background track , he entered the ring  in 1973 against the favoured ex-champ Frazier, coming off his three epic fights with Ali. While everyone gave Foreman a chance it was thought that the indomitable Frazier, possessor of a lethal left hook, would tame the young bull.

Instead, in under two rounds of savagery , Foreman sent Frazier to the canvas  six times. Cosell yelled himself horse crying, “Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier!” This was a whole new level of brutality as the poker-faced Foreman returned to his corner as the most feared boxer on the planet. For good measure Foreman destroyed Norton in 1974.

Fans of Ali quaked when they heard that he would face Foreman’s awesome power in Africa in the summer of 1974. They knew how much the trio of Frazier brawls had taken from him. The prospect of seeing the beloved heavyweight champ lifted off his feet by Foreman’s power left them sick to their stomach. Foreman played up his bad-boy image, wearing black leather, snarling at the press and leading a German shepherd on a leash.

Everyone knows what happened next. We were travelling the time in the era before internet/ cell phones. Anticipating the worst we blinked hard at the headline showing the next day that it was a thoroughly exhausted Foreman who crumbled in the seventh round. The brilliant documentary When We Were Kings is the historical record of that night/ morning in Kinshasa. The cultural clash of Ali, the world’s most famous man, and the brute against the background of music and third-world politics made it an Oscar winner.

But it’s largely about Ali. It doesn’t do justice to the enormity of Foreman’s collapse. Of course the humiliation of that night sent Foreman on a spiritual quest to find himself, a quest that took the prime of his career from him. It wasn’t till 1987 that he re-emerged as a Baptist minister/ boxer. With peace in his soul he climbed the ranks again, defiantly trading blows in the centre of the ring with opponents who finally succumbed to his “old-man” power.

Instead of the dour character who was felled by Ali, this Foreman was transformed in the public’s eye when he captured the heavyweight title in 1994, beating Michael Moore, a man 20 years his junior. He smiled. He teased Cosell and other media types. He fought till he was 48, although he tried to comeback when he was 55 (his wife intervened)

And, yes, for anyone who stayed up late watching TV there was the George Foreman Grill, a pitchman’s delight that earned him more money than his boxing career. HBO boxing commentator Larry Merchant commented that “There was a transformation from a young, hard character who felt a heavyweight champion should carry himself with menace to a very affectionate personality.”

There was a short-lived TV show called George. There was The Masked Singer as “Venus Fly Trap”. And there were the cameos on Home Improvement, King Of The Hill and  Fast ’N Loud, delighting audiences who’d once reviled him. He cracked up Johnny Carson.

Foreman’s rebound story was uniquely American. Where Canadians are enthusiastically damning Bobby Orr and Wayne Gretzky for political reasons, Foreman never became a captive of angry radicals or corporate America. He went his own way, thumping the bible and the grill. Rest easy, big man.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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