Sports
Odds Are Good Your Team Will Never Win A Title In Your Lifetime
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“There’s no failure in sports. There’s good days, bad days, some days you’re able to be successful, some days you’re not. Some days it’s your turn, some days it’s not your turn. That’s what sports is about. You don’t always win. Some other people’s going to win. And this year somebody else is going to win. Simple as that.” Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo on losing in the playoffs last spring.
Antetokounmpo was simply stating the obvious math. In a time where leagues are 30 or 32 teams, media expectations are rooted in the odds of a 12- or 14-team league when playoffs were just two rounds. There’s luck and sheer numbers working against your team. Fans follow this standard that your team must win titles or be forever damned. The closer a club gets the greater the expectations.
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Still reporters demanded accountability from the man who’d helped the Bucks to the 2021 NBA title. But Giannis turned it back on reporter Eric Nehm . “Oh my god. You asked me the same question last year, Eric. Do you get a promotion every year on your job? No, right? So, every year your work is a failure? Yes or no? No. Every year you work, you work toward something, toward a goal, right? Which is to get a promotion, to be able to take care of your family, provide a house for them or take care of your parents. It’s not a failure, it’s steps to success.
He has a point. In the modern age failure is relative. The traditional poster boys for “failure” are the Buffalo Bills from 1992 to 1996. After wining the AFC every one of those years Marv Levy’s team went to four Super Bowls and lost every one of them, branding them forever in the media and fan perspective as losers.
No other team has ever made four consecutive Super Bowls. Kansas City made four title games in five years. None have made it to three straight Super Bowls. The Detroit Lions have zero Super Bowl appearances before this season and have won just three times in the postseason since their NFL championship in 1957.
Even in a league with 28 teams, the Bills’ feat was remarkable. Unprecedented. And yet, because they lost all four consecutive championship games they’re an avatar of failure. When compared to dynasties such as the 1970s Miami Dolphins (two Super bowls) or the 1980s-90s San Francisco 49ers (5 Super Bowls) the Bills are seen as chokers or losers. The New England Patriots’ winning six SBs from 2002-2016 are the real outlier.)
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The current poster boys for hockey failure are the Toronto Maple Leafs, without an NHL championship since 1967. That year was also the last time the Leafs appeared in the Final series. They have since made the final four five times, the most recent being 2002 when Boston dispatched them. Most fans of the team, as well as most hockey fans, see them as a punchline. But in these times of bloated leagues, a semifinal appearance is the equivalent of making it to the Finals in the six-team league of 1967.
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Fans and contemporary media still think they we are living in a time when every club, given a little luck and a good draft, will reward its fans with a champions parade. That’s what the mania for parity and salary caps was about. Balancing the draft would give everyone a shot at a star who’d take them to the holy land. But with 30 or 32 teams that formula doesn’t work. There’s just one Stanley Cup. One Lombardi Trophy. And 31 disappointed fan bases.
Where the 1955-60 Montreal Canadiens, 1976-80 Habs, 1981-84 New York Islanders and 1984-1988 Edmonton Oilers defined clutch with multiple Cups in consecutive or near-consecutive seasons, today’s gold standard is closer to two and done. Detroit won four Cups but it was between 1997 and 2008. Chicago won three Cups in five years (2010-2015). Pittsburgh had three Cups in eight years (2009-2017) .
Basketball (with its smaller rosters) still has super teams dominated by LeBron James and Steph Curry. But the NFL and MLB lack the traditional domination by repeat champions. Since 2000 only the San Francisco Giants have three titles and those were from 2010-2014). While the big-budget Dodgers and Yankees have been perennial playoff teams they haven’t dominated the current 30-team league as they did in the 1970s-1990s.
It’s likely that with the NHL talking about 36 teams fans of many of those clubs will not see their team win a title in their lifetime. Parity will sound nice coming from the league, but after decades of coming up short, the odds say fans shouldn’t be praying for a title.
As Giannis says, we need a new standard of success. Michael Jordan’s great accomplishment wasn’t simply the title he brought to the Bulls, it was the totality of seasons in which his club was a viable contender. “There’s always steps to it,” said Antetokounmpo. “Michael Jordan played 15 years, won six championships. The other nine years was a failure? That’s what you’re telling me?
In our book Ice Storm on the 2008-2013 Vancouver Canucks, GM Mike Gillis made the same point when describing his formula for success with a team that has gone longest without a Cup. Understanding the place luck and injuries play, he said his description for success was having a contending team that had a puncher’s chance every year and, eventually, a title winner. Yes, there would be down years. On average, however, it would reap tiles and profits for owners.
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But Gillis’ owner, Francesco Aquilini, who’d originally subscribed to this formula, panicked when a near-miss for the Cup in 2011 was followed by two first-round eliminations in subsequent years. The bleating of disappointed season-ticket holders and the criticism from hostile media moved Aquilini to replace Gills with local hero Trevor Linden. The Canucks then missed the playoffs in eight of the next eleven seasons.
Setting too high a bar is a recipe for failure to any management. Explaining the rarity of a semifinal appearance— as Giannis did— can lessen the stress. But until media cite a more realistic standard it’s unlikely anyone will cut teams losing in the playoff any slack. They may well ask what’s in it for them when owners cash a fat expansion fee and push a Cup that much further away.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
Bruce Dowbiggin
Team Canada Hits American Wall. Wall Wins. Now What?
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You wanted a border war? You got a border war. And just like the political conflict this one came down to Canada’s defence. Or lack of same.
After weeks of a phoney war of words between Canada’s abdicated leadership and America’s newly elected Trump administration, the question of Canada’s sovereignty crystallized Saturday on a hockey rink in Montreal. It was a night few will forget. The 3-1 score of Team U.S. over Team Canada being secondary to other outcomes.
Despite public calls for mutual respect, the sustained booing of the American national anthem and the Team Canada invocation by MMA legend Georges St. Pierre was answered by the Tkachuck brothers, Matthew and Brady, with a series of fights in the first nine seconds of the game. Three fights to be exact when former Canuck J.T. Miller squared up with Brandon Hagel. (All three U.S.players have either played on or now play for Canadian NHL teams.)
Premeditated and nasty. To say nothing of the vicious mugging of Canada’s legend Sidney Crosby behind the U.S. net moments later by Charlie McEvoy.
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Those who’d expected a solidarity moment pregame to counter booing the anthem had been optimistic. “Kinda think it might be more fitting for the US team to go stand shoulder to shoulder with the Canadians, under the circumstances. That, I’d cheer.,” said Andrew Coyne. Wrong again.
Expecting a guys’ weekend like the concurrent NBA All Star game, the fraternal folks instead got a Pier Six brawl. It was the most stunning beginning to a game most could remember in 50 years. (Not least of all the rabid Canadian fanbase urging patriotism in the home of Quebec separation) Considering this Four Nations event was the NHL’s idea to replace the tame midseason All Star Game where players apologize for bumping into each other during a casual skate, the tumult as referees tried to start the game was shocking.
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But in unprecedented times who could have predicted the outcome? Under-siege Canadians were represented by fans wearing flashing red lights. They’d been urged on by yahoos in the Canadian media to boo everything American they saw, unaware but uncaring if it ruled out Americans playing in a Canadian city when they get the chance.
“It’s also more political than the (1972) Summit Series was,” bawled Toronto Star columnist Bruce Arthur, “because Canada’s existence wasn’t on the line then, and it may be now. You’re damn right Canadians should boo the anthem.”
He got what he asked for. It was as if large segments of Canada had suddenly awoken to their fate in the weeks since incoming POTUS Donald Trump’s tariff threats forced PM Justin Trudeau to resign and prorogue Parliament so his Liberals could stage a succession plan. Or maybe, according to Liberal house leader Karin Gould, postpone the election.
Instead of looking inward to examine what Canada had done to invite trouble the target was instead on Trump, who many believe is supposed to act like a beneficent older brother to Canada. Indignant Canadians are suddenly cancelling winter vacations to the U.S. while boycotting American chain stores like Home Depot and Costco. Even though Canada’s military is a token force following years of Trudeau downsizing and DEI incursions, the sunset media invokes Vimy Ridge and D-Day in their disgust with Trump, who wants Canada (and NATO allies) to actually pay for their defence.
Earlier in the day, presumptive PM Pierre Poilievre echoed the Liberal line with a rally for Canadian unity that would have worked in 1995, not 2025. In a move he may regret he quoted Churchill’s barb that Americans will always do the right thing after every other option has been exhausted. It drew cheap laughs. With luck, Trump’s animus to Trudeau will overshadow this potshot in a critical moment. Or maybe not.
The TV commercials from Canada’s corporate side waved the patriot flag, too. Leading one to wonder had they really missed the Trudeau decade that prompted this? Did they not hear him talking about Canada having no culture now? How it was now postmodern? How it was now 40 million narratives? How he’d lowered the flag for six months in penance for racism and genocide? Apparently not, as they revived narratives from the 1980 Quebec referendum to stir the crowd.
Now, with the symbolic game lost, what’s next? For Team Canada, injured and humbled, there’s an afternoon tilt Monday in Boston against Finland. Only by beating the Finns can they get a revenge game against the American, this time before a hostile Boston crowd. Should they get there would it be Hudson Bay rules again? How will Americans respond? The mind boggles.
Had there not been such a dramatic political overtone, the attention of the media might have dwelt on the fact that this was the first Canada/ U.S. best-on-best contest in 12 years. Excluding the fights it was a monumental display of skill, stamina and, sadly for Canada, goaltending. Why the wait? NHL commissioner Gary Bettman always puts the league’s interests ahead of those who want to see the best players against each other. So expansion and outdoor games took precedence.
Ordinarily the smashing success of the tournament would shame the NHL into more such competitions. And indeed they are conceding to a schedule of Olympics (Italy in 2026) and World Cups in the next decade. As thrilling as any of those contests might be they will likely pale next to Saturday’s drama. In fact, only Game Eight of the 1972 Summit Series can match the explosive political and sports combination of Feb. 16, 2025.
Guesses are now being accepted over just what Canada and Canada’s hockey team’s program might look like by the end of the 2020’s. Once certainty— if the game Saturday is any indication fraternal friendship between the U.S. and Canada will be on hold for a while.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
Bruce Dowbiggin
All Bets Are Off: Why Prop Betting Scares Sports Leagues, Police
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Sunday’s Super Bowl concluded another season of wagering on the sport made great by gambling. With billions wagered legally— and billions wagered illegally—the NFL is a Frankenstein of the betting industry. Everything is done to create parity while simultaneously promoting chaos. When other leagues talk about success they are talking about the NFL’s colossal gambling industry.
The penetration of betting has only increased with legalization in Canada (Ontario is the only “open” legal market at the moment) and the United States (38 states currently allow sports wagering). It has gotten to the point where sports bettors in Las Vegas, for decades the only legal spot for sports gambling, complain that Nevada is falling behind its neighbours. Some drive across state lines to wager on sports offerings not made in Vegas.
We could do a small book on all the new betting applications that have sprung up with sharps applying stock-market analytics and trading strategies to break down a football game. But for today we’ll concentrate on the device that has turbo-charged public betting in the past generation: Proposition bets. And the enormous risk they bring.
In the bad old days when gambling was underground, dominated by organized crime, football betting meant the money line (who will win), sides (by how many points) and totals (how many points would be scored in as game). The range of options within these parameters was limited. You could parlay (two bets), tease (two or more choices with alternate odds) or do future bets.
Then along came proposition bets (props). There are propositions on everything from how many yards player X will run for, how many interceptions Player Y will throw and how many touchdowns player Z will score. There are also team props. The range of props covers almost any result generated by a football game— and a few generated by halftime shows and coin flips.
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When props first began to catch the public interest, they were a novelty. Snobs saw them as sucker bets for squares. In Vegas, books would stage a glitzy launch ten days before the game to announce their props. No more. The first props for SB LIX were out minutes after the conference final games were decided. The brushfire is now a conflagration.
The two weeks before SB LIX were saturated with experts breaking down the teams, their predilections and their models for predicting prop winners. In a game with no appreciable favourite this meant every microchip of data being examined. (We had at least a dozen props then added a couple more during the game to hedge against any losers.)
The great fallibility of prop betting is their individual nature. With totals and sides the results are determined by efforts of the 92 NFL players allowed to suit up each week. Outside of the QBs, kickers, coaches and perhaps the referees, no single person could determine a W or L. Not so with props.
A player can drop a pass or miss a tackle— affecting his prop— without anyone being the wiser. The NFL scrutinizes players for erratic patterns, but on a single basis anything is possible for a player who is being influenced by bettors. Integrity of the product is paramount for the NFL and its gambling partners. So a rogue player is like a communist in Joe McCarthy’s America.
There is also betting on non-football props concerning length of national anthem, colour of Gatorade used to douse the winning coach and clothing choices of the halftime performers. Here, bettors are truly on their own as the NFL has no control on Kendrick Lamar’s playlist. (Considering KL’s associates “in the hood” this a very Wild West way to lose money) own the colour of Gatorade used (yellow).
So far the NFL has avoided any public gambling scandal like the one that landed the personal translator for Dodgers’s star Hideki Ohtani in jail for tipping off gamblers. (So far MLB has managed to wall off Hideki from the crimes). But the possibilities are there in NFL and other sports where a player compromised by debts, drug issues or sexual activity can be leveraged for profit.
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The league with the most visible prop problem is the NBA with its small rosters (15 players game day). For a reminder the NBA was forced to admit that there is a current police probe into player Terry Rozier, now of the Miami Heat. “In March 2023, the NBA was alerted to unusual betting activity related to Terry Rozier’s performance in a game between Charlotte and New Orleans,” NBA spokesman said. While the NBA has cleared Rozier police area not satisfied.
In the 2023 matchup between the Hornets and the New Orleans Rozier pulled himself from the game after just nine minutes. As a result Rozier finished well below his prop bet of 32.5 combined points, assists and rebounds. Bettors howled about the suspicious nature of Rozier’s exit with a foot problem.
What made cops suspicious was that the network of gamblers placing money on Rozier was the same network that had allegedly manipulated former Raptor Jontay Porter’s prop numbers. Porter has been banned for life over charges he shaved numbers for the nefarious characters cited in the rosier story. Police are still investigating him.
The NBA is still reverberating from the 2007 scandal of referee Tim Donaghy who used his knowledge of the NBA to bet on professional basketball games and tip off crimes figures. He was banned for life and sentenced to 15 months in prison. Now released from prison Donaghy continues to warn about the vulnerability of betting NBA games.
Then there is the risk associated with U.S. college athletics now that players are paid to attend a certain college. Money and temptation flow freely in the new portal system that allows players to transfer schools midway through their eligibility.
Sunday’s game produced a one-sided windfall for Eagles’ bettors and the usual controversial referee calls did not affect the outcome. But it should not be seen as a reason to be less vigilant, particularly with props.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
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