Alberta
No Matter Which Formula, Albertans Win With An Alberta Pension Plan
From the Alberta Institute
Guest Post By Lindsay Wilson
Opponents of the Alberta Pension Plan (APP) have wasted no time busting out the pitchforks, with their legacy media lapdogs hard at work toeing the line for the union big wigs and their NDP friends.
It’s merely weeks into the launch of a province-wide public consultation to educate and get feedback from Albertans on an APP and there is no shortage of Trudeau-funded media penning pieces laden with misinformation.
They’re pushing a fear-based narrative that has seniors running scared and reasonable people questioning whether the bold move isn’t a little selfish which is no different than what Quebec has been doing — quite successfully — since day one.
For us here at Alberta Proud, we not only think opting out of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and establishing an APP is a great idea — it’s a critical step toward more Alberta autonomy.
If we don’t, will we ever achieve much of anything in the arena of autonomy? Think about it: if we can’t win a referendum on the one thing we don’t need permission from Ottawa to do, where does that leave us?
More Alberta and Less Ottawa isn’t just a pie in the sky for us at Alberta Proud. It’s our mantra.
We genuinely believe enough is enough. It’s time for Ottawa to take a hike, including their antiquated equalization formula that you voted 62% in favour of scrapping.
We now have an opportunity to leave the CPP, in favour of a made-in-Alberta plan which must offer the same or better benefits. And it will, without question, put more money into your pocket every year as we finally won’t be overcontributing.
The newest twist in the anti-APP narrative is casting doubt on the formula the independent, government-commissioned LifeWorks report produced: that 53% of the CPP assets ($334 billion) would be owed to Alberta.
By switching to an APP, that translates to putting an additional $1,425 back into each employee’s pocket, according to LifeWorks, and when you consider the employer’s contribution, that amount is effectively doubled.
That’s a huge incentive for Alberta employers, those coming here to work and for the majority of hard-working everyday people who are drowning in this era of inflation (or #justinflation as we like to call it at Alberta Proud).
Meanwhile in the mainstream media, economist Trevor Tombe is balking at the math, claiming Albertans will be owed around one-third of what LifeWorks has assessed.
While it may seem odd everyone is arriving at different numbers, here is the kicker: even if we leave with only 17% (among the lower estimates floating around and not the 25% estimated by Tombe or the 53% estimated by LifeWorks) it’s still a better deal for Albertans.
But how, you ask? Simply put, we would finally get a break from this hidden transfer program, which is yet another way in which hardworking Albertans subsidize the rest of the country.
We have a comparatively younger population and because of this, we have paid more than we have collected. It has always been this way for us, and it doesn’t look like that will change. In the past year, a record 185,000 new Albertans moved here to work and take advantage of our low taxes and abundant opportunities. Any way you slice it, our contribution rate would fall.
Another concern is around who will manage an APP.
While the opposition is quick to point out CPP investment returns have been decent and that an APP would be best not left in the hands of AIMCo, did you know we could very well use the same pension fund manager as the CPP or another arms-length, third party?
By putting Alberta first, you will not risk your pension.
By switching to an APP, you will put more money in your pocket.
Ottawa has long turned its back on Albertans and continues to hit us with eco-radical regulations that will leave us broke and freezing in the dark. If we stay in the CPP, we are sending them a message that they can keep pushing us around, forever, no matter what they do to us.
It’s time for a change.
So, take a moment to fill out the Alberta government survey.
Send emails to your MLA, Finance Minister Nate Horner and Premier Danielle Smith. Show up to the townhalls.
Alberta’s future of more autonomy depends on all of us getting loud and Alberta Proud!
Lindsay Wilson is the President of Alberta Proud, a group of citizens concerned about Alberta’s future within Canada.
Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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