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Energy

New federal law may actually inject more facts into ‘climate’ debate

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4 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Kenneth P. Green

A new federal law—Bill C-59, which received royal assent last month—has Canada’s oil and gas industry and the premiers of oil and gas provinces up in arms.

Specifically, in legalese, it allows government or outside litigants to review a “representation to the public in the form of a statement, warranty or guarantee of a product’s benefits for protecting the environment or mitigating the environmental and ecological effects of climate change that is not based on an adequate and proper test, the proof of which lies on the person making the representation.”

These “reviews” would be conducted by government courts where claimants would have to prove the truthfulness of what they were saying.

Opponents of the law argue that it constitutes a gag order on Canada’s oil and gas sector, to prevent them from marketing their products, services and technologies in a positive way. And indeed, the legislation would gag a lot oil and gas sector talk, because all claims about climate change are highly uncertain. The law would impose severe penalties on those who can’t prove themselves innocent of misrepresentation, including fines up to $15,000,000.

Industry and political objections aside, however, a good argument can be made that government does have a legitimate interest in deterring businesses from engaging in fraudulent practices or false advertising.

For example, while warming is certainly real (1.1 degrees Celsius since 1850), the human contribution to this warming is unclear. Potentially harmful changes to the climate radiating from that increased warming are highly unclear, and the ultimate impacts on human health stemming from climate change are almost completely unknown and unknowable, depending, as they would, on unpredictable economic, technologic and social factors.

Thus, any claims about a technology such as “carbon capture and storage” reducing the risks of climate change almost certainly can’t be proven truthful in a rigorous cause-and-effect way before a courtroom standard of truth in advertising.

Similarly, technologies and practices that reduce the carbon intensity of oil and gas production, often portrayed as mitigating climate risk, cannot be shown to do so in a direct provable cause-and-effect way, because climate risks themselves are multi-factorial and still speculative, and the impacts of relatively small emission reductions remain unquantifiable.

With this new federal law, the Trudeau government seemingly wants to prevent the oil and gas sector from defending its products, operations, technologies and services on the grounds that some of their actions have already, and will in future, mitigate climate risk. The oil and gas industry and its supporters say this will render the industry unable to defend itself from onerous regulations and government actions meant to drive them out of business.

Of course, a fair argument can be made that businesses in the oil and gas sector should not make claims about climate change mitigation that they can’t back up in court, and that they should be subject to the same scrutiny as any other business. And due to this new law, they will likely appear in court someday to defend themselves against the government’s long-stated belief that the industry should be shut down.

However, to the extent the new law is limited to particularly unprovable claims regarding certain technologies, this may not be an entirely bad thing. It may actually force Canada’s climate policy discussions to be grounded more in fact than fancy.

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2025 Federal Election

MORE OF THE SAME: Mark Carney Admits He Will Not Repeal the Liberal’s Bill C-69 – The ‘No Pipelines’ Bill

Published on

From EnergyNow.Ca

Mark Carney on Tuesday explicitly stated the Liberals will not repeal their controversial Bill C-69, legislation that prevents new pipelines being built.

Carney has been campaigning on boosting the economy and the “need to act forcefully” against President Donald Trump and his tariffs by harvesting Canada’s wealth of natural resources — until it all fell flat around him when he admitted he actually had no intention to build pipelines at all.

When a reporter asked Carney how he plans to maintain Bill C-69 while simultaneously building infrastructure in Canada, Carney replied, “we do not plan to repeal Bill C-69.”

“What we have said, formally at a First Ministers meeting, is that we will move for projects of national interest, to remove duplication in terms of environmental assessments and other approvals, and we will follow the principle of ‘one project, one approval,’ to move forward from that.”

“What’s essential is to work at this time of crisis, to come together as a nation, all levels of government, to focus on those projects that are going to make material differences to our country, to Canadian workers, to our future.”

“The federal government is looking to lead with that, by saying we will accept provincial environmental assessments, for example clean energy projects or conventional energy projects, there’s many others that could be there.”

“We will always ensure these projects move forward in partnership with First Nations.”

Tory leader Pierre Poilievre was quick to respond to Carney’s admission that he has no intention to build new pipelines. “This Liberal law blocked BILLIONS of dollars of investment in oil & gas projects, pipelines, LNG plants, mines, and so much more — all of which would create powerful paychecks for our people,” wrote Poilievre on X.

“A fourth Liberal term will block even more and keep us reliant on the US,” he wrote, urging people to vote Conservative.

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Alberta

Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

Published on

From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.

Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.

In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.

Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.

The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.

Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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