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Bruce Dowbiggin

MLB Economics: Ten Pounds of Sand In A Five-Pound Bag

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One might think that, in times fraught with Covid-19, civil unrest and schism politics, the people entrusted with diverting the population for a while might put aside their differences to supply a little entertainment.

If you think this you have not met the people in Major League Baseball. Instead of watching the debate in Parliament the past few days we might have been poring over the first reports from spring training in Florida and Arizona. We might have been speculating if this is the year the Blue Jays return to the World Series for the first time since 1993. But it’s not happening.

That’s because the owners and players in #MLB have chosen this time to resume their periodic border war over the economy of the sport. Since Curt Flood and Catfish Hunter led the way to free agency in baseball in the 1970s, the owners have been pining to restore the previous balance when they paid players as they pleased, and the stars of baseball were forced to accept.

More to the point, MLB once more wishes to crush the MLB Players Association, the most powerful of the pro sports unions. The unions in NHL, NBA and NFL have been smashed by owners in those sports, allowing for salary-cap regimes that range from draconian to merely intrusive. Getting MLBPA to submit has been a longterm goal for baseball owners as a result.

But repeated labour stoppages soured the public on baseball, culminating in the disastrous 1994 cancellation of the World Series (with the Montreal Expos set to win.) Since that blunder baseball kept its labour disputes from disrupting regular season games That idyll ended in the most recent prior dispute between MLB and the players’ union in 2020 as players and teams debated how to restructure a season affected by Covid-19.

But the temptation to squabble is too strong, and so owners want to again try the solidarity of players, locking them out last December. This time the the league and the union are at loggerheads over compensation for young players and limitations on tanking— losing on purpose to receive higher selections in the amateur draft. They are dealing with a situation where 10 players are making more than $33 million a year while the average salary stood at $4.17 million U.S. in 2021. And this offends many in the business.

Because, as we say in our book Cap In Hand (brucedowbigginbooks.ca/book-capinhand.aspx) owners want to talk like capitalists but act like socialists. Their challenge in trying to expand their leagues to 30-plus teams— while assuring competitive balance— is that getting small markets Pittsburgh, Milwaukee or Kansas City to compete on an ongoing basis for free agents with New York, Chicago for Los Angeles is a fool’s errand.

To paraphrase an old expression, it’s like trying to put ten pounds of sand into a five-pound bag. Yes, there are smaller markets— notably the Tampa Bay Rays— who have found ways to circumvent their financial handicaps. But the dynamics of consistently winning a World Series or even making the playoffs are monumental. For that reason owners are seeking an expanded postseason which would allow 14 of the league’s 30 teams to reach the playoffs.

The current success of the LA Dodgers ( 3 NL pennants in five years) set against the systemic failure of Pittsburgh (with just one postseason win since 2010) highlights the frustration for owners and fans alike who wish to chase the unicorn of parity. The idea that any team can win on any given Sunday still has its adherents.

But this latest lockout speaks to the futility of the franchise model. The consumer has changed and the means of distributing the product has changed with it. The problem, as we point out in Cap In Hand, is that “no longer does a league need a team in every town to spread its product. Soccer has demonstrated that the sports world has morphed from the overstocked inventories of the franchise model to one based on matchups of elite teams populated by elite players.

“Without a salary cap, the beautiful game has allowed for the growth of super teams in smaller leagues. There is no parity in soccer, just the unending quest for the best product possible. As a result, the sport has finally made a breakthrough in North America.”

The breakdown of the conventional media delivery system, betting and the potential for profit has made all sports global. Fans/ bettors in Europe or Asia want to see the best teams, not Pittsburgh versus Milwaukee on a Tuesday night. What becomes of those teams? Don’t eliminate them the way the Expos were vaporized. Simply have teams play at the financial level they can afford. Concentrate the best players in the markets that can afford them. Have relegation and promotion.

Until the owners in MLB— and the other sports— grasp this simple proposition we are doomed to this cycle of defying market economics in the service of salary caps. Hope that keeps baseball fans warm till MLB cranks up again toward the end of April.

 

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster (http://www.notthepublicbroadcaster.com). The best-selling author was nominated for the BBN Business Book award of 2020 for Personal Account with Tony Comper. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s also a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book with his son Evan Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History is now available on http://brucedowbigginbooks.ca/book-personalaccount.aspx

BRUCE DOWBIGGIN Award-winning Author and Broadcaster Bruce Dowbiggin's career is unmatched in Canada for its diversity and breadth of experience . He is currently the editor and publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster website and is also a contributor to SiriusXM Canada Talks. His new book Cap In Hand was released in the fall of 2018. Bruce's career has included successful stints in television, radio and print. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster for his work with CBC-TV, Mr. Dowbiggin is also the best-selling author of "Money Players" (finalist for the 2004 National Business Book Award) and two new books-- Ice Storm: The Rise and Fall of the Greatest Vancouver Canucks Team Ever for Greystone Press and Grant Fuhr: Portrait of a Champion for Random House. His ground-breaking investigations into the life and times of Alan Eagleson led to his selection as the winner of the Gemini for Canada's top sportscaster in 1993 and again in 1996. This work earned him the reputation as one of Canada's top investigative journalists in any field. He was a featured columnist for the Calgary Herald (1998-2009) and the Globe & Mail (2009-2013) where his incisive style and wit on sports media and business won him many readers.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

The High Cost Of Baseball Parity: Who Needs It?

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This week we are heading over to Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter, Florida, to see how MLB is getting along with its new ABS system for calling balls and strikes. According to our source at MLB the challenge system is being readily accepted by fans. If it goes as well as the time clock and catchers callig pitches elctronically it will be welcome.

In planning for seeing a  game we had a choice between seeing the homestanding Miami Marlins or St. Louis Cardinals, who share the stadium in the spring. Our 16th-row seats for the Marlins/ Washington Nationals game are US $16 each. Had we chosen a Cardinals game versus Washington the next day that same seat would cost US $79.

That, ladies and gentlemen, is called dynamic pricing. The unloved Marlins can’t draw flies. The Cardinals— even a bad Cardinals team— are still a big draw. The gap between the two realities is growing fast. Leading many to say, What about parity?

As we wrote in December of last year, “MLB has seen parity and proclaimed, “We don’t give a damn!” Okay, they didn’t say that. In fact they insist the opposite is true. They’re all about competition and smaller markets getting a shot at a title. But as the 2024 offseason spending shows, believe none of what you hear and half of what you see in MLB.

Here’s the skinny: Juan Soto‘s contract with the NY Mets — 15 years and guaranteeing $765 million, not a penny of which is deferred. Max Fried signed an eight-year, $218 million deal with the New York Yankees. Later, Nathan Eovaldi secured a three-year, $75 million contract to return to the Texas Rangers. Blake Snell (five years, $182 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers) and Matthew Boyd (two years, $29 million with the Chicago Cubs) added to the splurge.

There’s one more  thing that stands out. MLB has no trouble with the financial big boys in New York, Los Angles, Texas, Toronto, Atlanta and Chicago shelling out money no small market dare pay. In the MLB cheap seats, Tampa, Pittsburgh  and Miami can’t send out quality players fast enough. But MLB is cool with that, too, as those paupers get a healthy slice of TV money. 

So yes, they’re all about talking parity with their luxury-tax system. But to keep the TV, digital, betting and marketing lucre flowing they have to have large media markets swinging the heaviest bats come postseason. The question is, do MLB fans care anymore the way they used to about parity? It says here they don’t. More want to seed best-on-best more often. Which is brutal but refreshing.

Their sister leagues, married to draconian salary cap systems, are still pushing parity, even as they expand beyond recognition. In our 2004 our book Money Players, legendary Boston Bruins coach/ GM Harry Sinden noted, “The problem with teams in the league, is that there were (then) 20 teams who all think they are going to win the Stanley Cup, and they all are going to share it. But only one team is going to win it. The rest are chasing a rainbow.”

And that was before the expansion Vegas Golden Knights won a Cup within five years while the third-year Seattle Kraken made a run in those same 2023 playoffs. There are currently 32 teams in the league, each chasing Sinden’s rainbow of a Stanley Cup. That means 31 cranky fan bases every year demanding changes. And 31 management teams trying to avoid getting fired.

Maybe we’ve reached peak franchise level? Uh, no. Not so long as salary-capped leagues can use the dream of parity to sell more franchises. As we wrote in October of 2023, “If you believe the innuendo coming from commissioner Gary Bettman there is a steady appetite for getting a piece of the NHL operation. “The best answer I can give you is that we have continuous expressions of interest from places like Houston, Atlanta, Quebec City, Salt Lake City, but expansion isn’t on the agenda.” In the next breath Bettman was predicting that any new teams will cost “A lot, a lot.”

Deputy commissioner Bill Daly echoed Bettman’s caution about a sudden expansion but added, ”Having said that, particularly with the success of the Vegas and Seattle expansions, there are more people who want to own professional hockey teams.” Translation: If the NHL can get a billion for a new team, the heck with competitive excellence, the clock might start ticking sooner. After all, small-market Ottawa just went for $950.”

It’s not just the expansion-obsessed NHL talking more teams. MLB is looking to add franchises. Abandoned Montreal is once more getting palpitations over rumours that the league wants to return to the city that lost its Expos in 2005. Recent reports indicate that while MLB might prefer Salt Lake City and Nashville it also feels it must right the wrong left when the Expos moved to Washington DC 19 years ago. 

The city needs a new ballpark to replace disastrous Olympic Stadium. They’ll also need more than Expos draftee Tom Brady to fund the franchise fee and operating costs. And Quebec corporate support— always transitory in the Expos years— will need to be strong. But two more MLB franchises within five years is a lock.

While the NBA is mum on going past 30 teams it has not shut the door on expansion after seeing the NHL cashing in. Neither has the cash-generating monster known as the NFL where teams currently sell for over six billion US. The NFL is eyeing Europe for its next moves.

The question that has to be asked in this is, WTF, quality of competition? The more teams in a league the lower the chances of even getting to a semifinal series let alone a championship. Fans in cities starved for a championship— the NFL’s Detroit Lions or Cleveland Browns are entering their seventh decade without a title or the Toronto Maple Leafs title-less since 1967— know how corrosive it can be.

Getting to 34, 36, maybe 40 teams makes for a short-term score for owners, but it could leave leagues with an entire strata of loser teams that no one—least of all networks, carriers and advertisers—wants to see. Generations of fans will be like Canuck supporters, going their entire lives without a championship. 

In addition, as we’ve argued in our 2018 book Cap In Hand: How Salary Caps Are Killing Pro Sports and How The Free Market Can Save Them, watering down the product with a lot of teams no one wants to watch nationally or globally seems counter productive. The move away from quality toward quantity serves only the gambling industry. But since when has Gary Bettman Truly cared about quality of the product? So long as he gets to say, “We have a trade to announce” at the Draft, he’s a happy guy.”

When we published Cap In Hand we proposed a system like soccer with ranked divisions using promotion and relegation to ensure competition, not parity. Most of the interviewers we spoke to were skeptical of the idea. But as MLB steams closer to economic Darwinism our proposal is looking more credible every day. Play at the level you can afford. Or just watch Ted Lasso. Your choice. “

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

Canada’s Liberals: Looking For A Place To Picnic In A Minefield

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Breaking: “Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum believes she will have a deal to avoid U.S. tariffs by next Tuesday. Meanwhile Canada’s PM Skippy McDoodles— he of 22 percent approval— is flying around Europe delivering billions to the Ukraine bribery-recycling  mechanism and chatting with 18% approval Macron in Paris. God help Canada.”

For a party that consumes language the way Prime Minister Trudeau’s plane consumes jet fuel the ruling Liberals seem willfully— blissfully— ignorant of the meaning of the word Urgent. As in, get something done yesterday.

While Mexico seemingly recognizes the value of time in coming up with a deal by March 4 to avoid tariffs and Trump’s displeasure, viewers of the Xanax Liberal debates on Monday and Tuesday were treated to a government languorously floating down a river of polite debate, staying inside the guardrails of good taste.

The prevailing take was “we f**ed up the past decade, okay? But you know us and can depend on us to keep pandering to your romantic notions that don’t include Chinese money laundering, drug kingpins and cyber crime.” Apparently that should be enough for Canadian Boomers to flock to them like the swallows at Capistrano.

As most know by now the elders of the party disqualified two leadership candidates, Ruby Dhalla and Chandra Araya, from the debates because they couldn’t be relied upon to spare the cadaverous banker Mark Carney who famously has three different passports, a passel of corporate board seats and a halting grasp of French.

But who needs debate? The Liberals have settled on their enemy and it’s not Pierre Poilievre. It’s Donald Trump. They’re convinced themselves that targeting Beelzebub Trump, not addressing the tariff crisis, is all they need to expunge the Trudeau Follies and win a March election. Instead of engaging in serious talks (see: Danielle Smith) they’ll talk amongst themselves. The recent hockey win over over Tyrannus U.S. has apparently inspired Canadians to reward Liberals with another five years of sitting in first class while paying economy.

Emboldened 1A) candidate Chrystia Freeland, the former Finance minister and Truck Convoy caudillo, blasted Trump on Tuesday, urging Canada to join with… Denmark. “The U.S. is turning predator, and so what Canada needs to do is work closely with our democratic allies, our military allies. I would start with our Nordic partners, specifically Denmark who is also being threatened.”

Maybe she can do an anti-Trump rally at the Tivoli Gardens in Copenhagen? The problem being— for those who applauded Nazis in the Visitors Gallery— this fatuous nonsense all makes perfect sense. The capacity for denial in the Libs aging Boomer base seems inexhaustible. Currently they’re memory-holing the Rez School buried babies claims that the PM recited before the U.N.

While the social-justice Left was routed in America in 2024, Team Carney is acting as if Canada’s culture cancellation scheme still works. Meanwhile the Libs seem unaware or uncaring about South of 70— the collapse of the CDN dollar— and the hollowing-out of Canada’s GDP (the total market value of all the final goods and services produced and rendered in a specific time period).

Economist  @TrevorTombe writes that it’s Code red time. “Real GDP per capita in the U.S. was 43% higher than in Canada in 2023. In 2024, I estimate this gap will widen to nearly 50% … This stunning divergence is unprecedented in modern history.’ But no sweat, Carney will print all the money Canada needs to keep diversity programs functioning.

It all mirrors the last desperate, flailing attempts by the U.S. Democrats to save their grasp on ultimate power in the 2024 election. Having used the Media Party that hid Biden’s bribery schemes to disguise the senility of Joe Biden for four years they discovered they would be wiped out by Trump in the voting. Presto change-o, they tossed the primary results, threw Biden into the dumpster, got friendly pollsters to make its look like Kamala Harris was ahead.

In the American model the DEMs still got smoked—every state voted more for Trump than 2020. Trump easily won the Electoral College. But Canada’s Libs seem assured that they can make an end run on the CPC’s big lead. Already the Media Party pollsters are showing a Lazarus-like ascent from Trudeau’s 22-percent approval to a lead in some polls and a closer call in others.

There are no Rasmussen polls as there were in the U.S., which consistently showed Trump on the road to his win. And Canada has yet to digest the full Carney record. Already his controversial record on climate and printing money has started to trip him up, as in recent revelations that he lied about his role in sending Brookfield’s head office from Canada to the U.S.

If all else fails Canada can still repatriate Wayne Gretzky. Donald Trump has made him a “free agent” again. “He’s the Greatest Canadian of them all, and I am therefore making him a ‘free agent,’ because I don’t want anyone in Canada to say anything bad about him… He supports Canada the way it is, as he should, even though it’s not nearly as good as it could be as part of the Greatest and Most Powerful Country in the World, the Good Ole’ U.S.A.!”

Besides, there are other Canadian fish for Trump to fry: “@Tablesalt13 If Donald Trump really wanted to hurt Canada he could offer (vetted) citizenship to any Canadian with an advanced degree or a sought-after skill. 40-50% of skilled Conservatives would leave… and only the socialists would remain….. This would be extinction level.” Just don’t call it urgent.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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