Lithium Prices: What They Tell Us About the Popularity of Electric Vehicles

The online database, Trading Economics, indicates that in June 2023 the global price for lithium had risen to $59,212 per tonne. But by November it had fallen by more than half to $27,218. Prices have continued to plummet. As of December 31, lithium was selling for just $18,242 per tonne.

How could this be? Electric vehicle (EV) mandates established in many rich developed countries over the past few years had analysts predicting that if targets were actually met, the world would need 388 new lithium mines by 2035. A Fraser Institute study suggests that getting enough mines built to satisfy all the mandates will be a problem. It takes from seven to ten years to get a mine financed, approved and built.

Canada’s Environment Minister, Steven Guilbeault is certainly trying to drive up demand for lithium. The federal government’s Zero Emissions Vehicle Standard insists that by 2030, 20% of all new passenger cars, SUVs and light trucks sold in Canada must be greenhouse gas emissions free. New battery plants are being handsomely subsidized in Canada to power all of the new electric cars that will presumably be required. With similarly aggressive mandates in Europe and US states led by California there should be heavy demand for lots of batteries and a mountain of lithium.

The most likely explanation for collapsing lithium prices is US consumers’ reluctance to embrace electric vehicles. The Economist reports that EVs accounted for just 8% of new vehicle sales in America this past year. GM was only able to sell 20,000 EVs, but it did manage to sell over half a million fossil-fueled vehicles. Disappointing demand for EVs prompted GM to shelve plans to spend $4 bn to convert one of its plants to electric pickup truck production. Ford has similarly lost enthusiasm for EVs. This past fall it decided to delay plans to invest $12bn in EV production. Companies that make lithium batteries for EVs have responded accordingly. This past fall battery plants in Georgia and Michigan laid off hundreds of employees. Fewer batteries translated into less demand for lithium.

It would appear that EV adoption goals established under Joe Biden’s eye-wateringly expensive green transition initiative (disguised as the “Inflation Reduction Act,”) are not being met. The Biden plan offers tax credits of up to $7,500 for people who purchase EVs. However that hasn’t been a sufficient sweetener. The average EV sold in the US has a $52,000 price tag and that doesn’t account for additional costs like wiring a home charging set up. California, Florida and Texas account for over half of US EV sales and are also responsible for high average sticker prices. Ostensibly virtuous EV buyers in the US have a bit of hypocrisy going on. They’ll happily drive EVs as long as they are full size SUVs. Batteries are heavy which makes EVs heavier than gas and diesel fueled vehicles. And, electric SUVs are especially heavy—heavy enough to increase the chances of deadly collisions. Tesla has apparently created a super-sized SUV, designed for wealthy California drivers, that makes the Hummer look like a toy. And, because they are extra heavy, driving them uses more electricity and it takes extra energy and materials to build them. Furthermore, given that fossil fuels still account for 60% of the electricity generated in the US, EVs are less environmentally friendly than advertised. They are far from being “emissions free.”

EVs are indeed more popular in Europe and China. In Europe 1.5 million EVs were sold this past year and 3.5 million were sold in China. The models sold in China are small, zippy units that don’t weigh much. However, like in the US, around 60% of the electricity consumed in China is generated by burning fossil fuels (mostly coal).

Despite having a copycat EV mandate that mirrors those in Europe, Canadian sales have been even less stellar than what the US has been able to achieve. In 2021, EVs accounted for just 5.3% of new car sales in Canada. Most of them were sold in Ontario, BC and Quebec (55,229) which makes sense—those are the provinces where most Canadians and most climate-alarmed Canadians live. In all the rest of Canada just 7,301 electric vehicles were purchased.

Clearly, the adoption of electric vehicles has failed to meet the overly ambitious targets set by environmentally-friendly policy makers. This result lines up with the litany of missteps and missed targets that have plagued green transition projects over the past two years. The failures include the big decline in demand for new solar and wind power projects and the reversal of greenhouse gas emissions reduction projects in the UK and Europe. An issue this could raise for us in Canada is that Steven Guilbeault might see the international data and worry that his transition plans need to be beefed-up. He could make them even more onerous, expensive and ludicrous.

Related Topics:#ElectricVehicles #EnergyNowMedia #JimWarren #LithiumPrices

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Nissan, Honda scrap $60B merger talks amid growing tensions

Published on February 6, 2025

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MxM News

Quick Hit:

Nissan is reportedly abandoning merger talks with Honda, scrapping a $60 billion deal that would have created the world’s third-largest automaker. The collapse raises questions about Nissan’s turnaround strategy as it faces challenges from electric vehicle competitors and potential U.S. tariffs.

Key Details:

Nissan shares dropped over 4% following the news, while Honda’s stock surged more than 8%, signaling investor relief.
Honda reportedly proposed making Nissan a subsidiary, a move Nissan rejected as it was initially framed as a merger of equals.
Nissan is struggling with financial challenges and the transition to EVs, still reeling from the 2018 scandal involving former chairman Carlos Ghosn.

Diving Deeper:

Merger talks between Nissan and Honda have collapsed, according to sources, after months of negotiations to form an auto giant capable of competing with Chinese EV makers like BYD. The proposed deal, valued at over $60 billion, would have created the world’s third-largest automaker. However, differences in strategy and control ultimately derailed the discussions.

Reports indicate that Honda, Japan’s second-largest automaker, wanted Nissan to become a subsidiary rather than an equal merger partner. Nissan balked at the idea, leading to the collapse of negotiations. Honda’s market valuation of approximately $51.9 billion dwarfs Nissan’s, which may have fueled concerns about control. The failure of talks sent Nissan’s stock tumbling more than 4% in Tokyo, while Honda’s shares rose over 8%, reflecting investor confidence in Honda’s independent strategy.

Nissan, already in the midst of a turnaround plan involving 9,000 job cuts and a 20% reduction in global capacity, now faces mounting pressure to restructure on its own. Analysts warn that the failed merger raises uncertainty about Nissan’s ability to compete in an industry rapidly shifting toward EVs. “Investors may get concerned about Nissan’s future [and] turnaround,” Morningstar analyst Vincent Sun said.

Complicating matters further, Nissan faces heightened risks from U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Potential tariffs on vehicles manufactured in Mexico could hit Nissan harder than competitors like Honda and Toyota. The stalled deal also impacts Nissan’s existing alliance with Renault, which had expressed openness to the merger. Renault holds a 36% stake in Nissan, including 18.7% through a French trust.

While both Nissan and Honda have stated they will finalize a direction by mid-February, the collapse of this deal signals deep divisions in Japan’s auto industry. With Nissan’s financial struggles and the growing dominance of Chinese EV makers, the company must now navigate an increasingly challenging market without external support.

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Trudeau must repeal the EV mandate

Published on January 25, 2025

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By Dan McTeague

Last Monday, Transport Canada released a bombshell statement, announcing that the Trudeau government’s program granting a $5,000 rebate to Canadians purchasing an Electric Vehicle (EV) had run out of money and would be discontinued, “effective immediately.” This followed a prior announcement from the government of Quebec that they would be suspending their own subsidy, which had amounted to $7,000 per EV purchased.

This is, of course, a game changer for an industry which the Trudeau government (as well as the Ford government in Ontario) has invested billions of taxpayer dollars in. That’s because, no matter the country, the EV industry is utterly dependent upon a system of carrots and sticks from the government, in the form of subsidies and mandates.

EVs have remained notably more expensive than traditional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, even with those government incentive programs. Without them the purchase of EVs becomes impossible for all but the wealthiest Canadians.

Which is fine. Let the rich people have their toys, if they want them. Though if they justify the expense by saying that they’re saving the planet by it, I may be tempted to deflate them a bit by pointing out that EVs are in no way appreciably better for the environment than ICE vehicles, how all the lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, aluminum, copper, etc, contained in just one single EV battery requires displacing about 500,000 lbs of earth. Mining these materials often takes place in poorer countries with substandard environmental regulations.

Moreover, the weight of those batteries means that EVs burn through tires more quickly than gas-and-diesel driven vehicles, and wear down roads faster as well, which among other issues leads to an increase in particulate matter in the air, what in the old days we referred to as “pollution.”

That is a potential issue, but one that is mitigated by the fact that EVs make up a small minority of cars on the road. Regular people have proved unwilling to drive them, and that will be even more true now that the consumer subsidies have disappeared.

Of course, it will be an issue if the Trudeau Liberals get their way. You see, Electric Vehicles are one of the main arenas in their ongoing battle with reality. And so even with the end of their consumer subsidies, they remain committed to their mandates requiring every new vehicle purchased in Canada to be electric by 2035, now just a decade away!

They’ve done away with the carrots, and they’re hoping to keep this plan moving with sticks alone.

This is, in a word, madness.

As I’ve said before, the Electric Vehicle mandate is a terrible policy, and one which should be repealed immediately. Canada is about the worst place to attempt this particular experiment with social engineering. It is famously cold, and EVs are famously bad in the cold, charging much slower in frigid temperatures and struggling to hold a charge. Which itself is a major issue, because our country is also enormous and spread out, meaning that most Canadians have to do a great deal of driving to get from “Point A” to “Point B.”

Canada is sorely lacking in the infrastructure which would be required to keep EVs on the road. We currently have less than 30,000 public charging stations nationwide, which is more than 400,000 short of Natural Resources Canada’s projection of what we will need to support the mandated total EV transition.

Our electrical grid is already stressed, without the addition of tens of millions of battery powered vehicles being plugged in every night over a very short time. And of course, irony of ironies, this transition is supposed to take place while our activist government is pushing us on to less reliable energy sources, like wind and solar!

Plus, as I’ve pointed out before, the economic case for EVs, such as it was, has been completely upended by the recent U.S. election. Donald Trump’s victory means that our neighbors to the south are in no immediate danger of being forced to ditch gas-and-diesel driven cars. Consequently, the pitch by the Trudeau and Ford governments that Canada was putting itself at the center of an evolving auto market has fallen flat. In reality, they’ve shackled us to a corpse.

So on behalf of my fellow Canadians I say, “Thank you,” to the government for no longer burning our tax dollars on this particular subsidy. But that isn’t even half the battle. It must be followed through with an even bigger next step.

They must repeal the EV mandate.

Dan McTeague is President of Canadians for Affordable Energy.