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Alberta

Kenney’s Leadership Review is a Circus – Red Deer South UCP MLA Jason Stephan

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This opinion editorial submitted by Red Deer South MLA Jason Stephan

Alberta’s legislature begins with a daily prayer asking leaders to “never lead the province wrongly through love of power”.

Our political system does require reform, concentrating too much power in the hands of the Premier.

Other than elections, leadership reviews are vital checks and balances against autocratic ambitions. It is a serious matter to meddle with the few checks and balances for the public that remain.

The UCP leadership review has become a spectacle and a circus.

Fundamentally moving goalposts, after deadlines, destroys trust and integrity of process. It provides opportunities to cheat.

The party executive first chose a process that suppressed member participation. Many grassroots members and CA boards raised concerns about this, which the executive ignored and rejected.

Many are concluding the leader was losing his vote, under his preferred rules, so he metaphorically grabbed the ball and ran away.

Many are concluding these fundamental changes in process, after deadlines, seek to manipulate the outcome of the vote.

Many do not trust this new process has not, or will not, be rigged.

Last week I stood in the legislature and said:

“Some politicians label those who agree with them as the mainstream; while those who disagree with them as fringe minorities, extremists, or threats undermining stability.”

Kenney is doing what he condemned Trudeau for doing.

“Some politicians say of course we can have unity – if only you would agree with me!

That is not unity. That is ridiculous.

We are governed by laws, not by individuals, and our paramount loyalties are to principles, not office holders.”

Kenney says those who vote to change him as leader undermine unity and stability.

That is self-serving. “Stability” was also used by Trudeau as a self-serving excuse to justify his pact with the NDP.

Some politicians say vote for Kenney or there will be divisions in the party!

They are too late – divisions are upon us and sometimes this leader has increased, rather than decreased, them.

We have seen too much dividing, too much labelling, sometimes change in leadership is required to heal, to unite and move forward.

Some politicians say vote for Kenney, we cannot risk the NDP getting back in!

Albertans are tired of politicians using fear as a tool.

Conservative policies, regardless of the leader, increase economic prosperity. With oil over $100, a conservative government budget would be balanced, with or without Kenney.

The ends do not justify the means and so this leader does not enjoy the trust of most Albertans. This recent development only amplifies and reinforces those feelings.

Kenney is less popular than the party. Is it in the best interests of our party, our province, to go into an election hoping to win, in spite of the leader? Isn’t that too much to risk, as we cannot risk the NDP getting back in!

Some politicians say vote for Kenney, we need him to get Alberta a fair deal! What has he accomplished so far? If he is not fair, where his moral authority to demand Ottawa to be fair?

With Trudeau forming an axis with the NDP, we do need to prepare ourselves for the real possibility of further hostile, targeted attacks that harm Alberta businesses and families.

The Premier of Alberta needs to be respected and trusted by Albertans to fearlessly defend our interests. The current Premier does not have that.

Some politicians say vote for Kenney or you get someone worse!

More fear. To assume that any one person is the only one who could be the leader of our party is a false assumption.

There are many honest and principled Alberta men and women who would be great leaders of our party.

 

Politics should not be a career. It is a special opportunity to serve and having contributed one’s experiences and talents, one should step aside and allow others to do the same.

The Premier’s leadership, and now his unprecedented efforts to full out campaign and control the results of his own review have become a circus, a distraction, and a liability to the province and the party.

Confidence is lost, and for the good of the party, for the province, the Premier should be gracious, resign and support a positive leadership race for a new leader to unite the party and the province.

“Dividing and labelling others only produces contention and destroys trust.

That is not leadership.”

This is true.

“Great leaders lead in love and inspire the best in those they serve.”

This is what we need.

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Alberta

Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances

Published on

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped below US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimated $750 million hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.

The Smith government already projects a $5.2 billion budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion “contingency” for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.

Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.

Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenue rollercoaster that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.

Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high as $25.2 billion in 2022/23 and as low as $2.8 billion in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.

Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.

The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.

Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up a sizeable fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.

Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.

And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create a rainy-day account.

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Alberta

Governments in Alberta should spur homebuilding amid population explosion

Published on

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Austin Thompson

In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Alberta has long been viewed as an oasis in Canada’s overheated housing market—a refuge for Canadians priced out of high-cost centres such as Vancouver and Toronto. But the oasis is starting to dry up. House prices and rents in the province have spiked by about one-third since the start of the pandemic. According to a recent Maru poll, more than 70 per cent of Calgarians and Edmontonians doubt they will ever be able to afford a home in their city. Which raises the question: how much longer can this go on?

Alberta’s housing affordability problem reflects a simple reality—not enough homes have been built to accommodate the province’s growing population. The result? More Albertans competing for the same homes and rental units, pushing prices higher.

Population growth has always been volatile in Alberta, but the recent surge, fuelled by record levels of immigration, is unprecedented. Alberta has set new population growth records every year since 2022, culminating in the largest-ever increase of 186,704 new residents in 2024—nearly 70 per cent more than the largest pre-pandemic increase in 2013.

Homebuilding has increased, but not enough to keep pace with the rise in population. In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Moreover, from 1972 to 2019, Alberta added 2.1 new residents (on average) for every housing unit started compared to 3.9 new residents for every housing unit started in 2024. Put differently, today nearly twice as many new residents are potentially competing for each new home compared to historical norms.

While Alberta attracts more Canadians from other provinces than any other province, federal immigration and residency policies drive Alberta’s population growth. So while the provincial government has little control over its population growth, provincial and municipal governments can affect the pace of homebuilding.

For example, recent provincial amendments to the city charters in Calgary and Edmonton have helped standardize building codes, which should minimize cost and complexity for builders who operate across different jurisdictions. Municipal zoning reforms in CalgaryEdmonton and Red Deer have made it easier to build higher-density housing, and Lethbridge and Medicine Hat may soon follow suit. These changes should make it easier and faster to build homes, helping Alberta maintain some of the least restrictive building rules and quickest approval timelines in Canada.

There is, however, room for improvement. Policymakers at both the provincial and municipal level should streamline rules for building, reduce regulatory uncertainty and development costs, and shorten timelines for permit approvals. Calgary, for instance, imposes fees on developers to fund a wide array of public infrastructure—including roads, sewers, libraries, even buses—while Edmonton currently only imposes fees to fund the construction of new firehalls.

It’s difficult to say how long Alberta’s housing affordability woes will endure, but the situation is unlikely to improve unless homebuilding increases, spurred by government policies that facilitate more development.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Austin Thompson

Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute
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