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Business

“It’s going to be OK!” Sweet message of hope from one small business to all the others

Published

5 years ago

5 minute read

This message from the owner/operator of “Sweet Capone’s” has started to circulate in Central Alberta.  

It captures the essence of the struggle facing all small businesses today.  

It’s worth sharing with all those you know who are fighting to keep their business alive when they may not be able to flip the sign from “closed” to “open”.

I have often wondered what it was like for my grandparents and great grandparents. To have lived through, and endured the struggles that a world war presented. It couldn’t have been easy – to navigate the waves of fear and to not succumb to the panic that creeps in when uncertainty hits. They had to ration food and other goods. Here in Canada and living in the middle class of society no less, I am beyond fortunate. Emergency rationing of food and other items is not something I have ever had to do.

I also have not had to experience the painful dread of knowing that one, or all of my sons would be drafted and shipped off to fight in a war – when they are barely old enough to shave…. and never knowing if it would be the last time I would get to hold them close.

I also have not known a society where most of the male figures are away fighting or deceased, and women are left to keep things going on the homefront – both in and out of the home.

I have not known the terror of a dictatorship, and with it, have had all of my rights and freedoms completely stripped away. I have not known annihilating persecution, segregation and the many unspeakable horrors that many cultures have experienced in the face of war. Even to this day.

I have not lived through obliteration where my home and everything I valued has been demolished and torn apart.

I have not known these things. But what I do know is this: previous generations survived all of these things and went on to create a society in which they thrived. Expanded. Flourished. They must have, or else you and I would not be here otherwise. Our previous generations have shown us that weathering adversity produces good fruit. Opportunities open up where they once did not exist. Weaknesses are identified and stronger solutions are put in place. New inventions and ideas sprout fourth and become endearing to our way of life. We identify what we can live with – and conversely, what we can live without. We develop a deeper sense of appreciation through loss, and draw closer to one another in times of strife.

A dear friend of mine said today, “history is like a pond. Ripples only exist on the surface and get harder to detect with distance.” I think he is so right. We forget what previous generations went through and did for us when we allow fear to send us running in the opposite direction.

That pond? Those ripples? They didn’t just start on their own. Our grandparents and the generations before them, they jumped into the water. They dove into it, perhaps even head first! And when they did that, they sent out ripples of resilience, determination and strength that would one day reach us. If we stop running in fear and instead turn around and dip a toe in those calming waters, something amazing will happen. We will be refreshed, renewed and repurposed. And even greater still, we will create ripples of our own that will serve as messages of hope for all the generations to come after us.

As for us here at Sweet Capone’s, we will stay open and are happy to serve you in any capacity until we are unable. We love you, believe in you, and can’t wait to see the ripples that we will produce together when all is said and done!

Stay safe and see you soon!

Love Carina and Joel Moran (owners)

I understand panic – Dr. Abdu Sharkawy

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After 15 years as a TV reporter with Global and CBC and as news director of RDTV in Red Deer, Duane set out on his own 2008 as a visual storyteller. During this period, he became fascinated with a burgeoning online world and how it could better serve local communities. This fascination led to Todayville, launched in 2016.

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Alberta

Alberta’s fiscal update projects budget surplus, but fiscal fortunes could quickly turn

Published on November 21, 2024

By

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

According to the recent mid-year update tabled Thursday, the Smith government projects a $4.6 billion surplus in 2024/25, up from the $2.9 billion surplus projected just a few months ago. Despite the good news, Premier Smith must reduce spending to avoid budget deficits.

The fiscal update projects resource revenue of $20.3 billion in 2024/25. Today’s relatively high—but very volatile—resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is helping finance today’s spending and maintain a balanced budget. But it will not last forever.

For perspective, in just the last decade the Alberta government’s annual resource revenue has been as low as $2.8 billion (2015/16) and as high as $25.2 billion (2022/23).

And while the resource revenue rollercoaster is currently in Alberta’s favor, Finance Minister Nate Horner acknowledges that “risks are on the rise” as oil prices have dropped considerably and forecasters are projecting downward pressure on prices—all of which impacts resource revenue.

In fact, the government’s own estimates show a $1 change in oil prices results in an estimated $630 million revenue swing. So while the Smith government plans to maintain a surplus in 2024/25, a small change in oil prices could quickly plunge Alberta back into deficit. Premier Smith has warned that her government may fall into a budget deficit this fiscal year.

This should come as no surprise. Alberta’s been on the resource revenue rollercoaster for decades. Successive governments have increased spending during the good times of high resource revenue, but failed to rein in spending when resource revenues fell.

Previous research has shown that, in Alberta, a $1 increase in resource revenue is associated with an estimated 56-cent increase in program spending the following fiscal year (on a per-person, inflation-adjusted basis). However, a decline in resource revenue is not similarly associated with a reduction in program spending. This pattern has led to historically high levels of government spending—and budget deficits—even in more recent years.

Consider this: If this fiscal year the Smith government received an average level of resource revenue (based on levels over the last 10 years), it would receive approximately $13,000 per Albertan. Yet the government plans to spend nearly $15,000 per Albertan this fiscal year (after adjusting for inflation). That’s a huge gap of roughly $2,000—and it means the government is continuing to take big risks with the provincial budget.

Of course, if the government falls back into deficit there are implications for everyday Albertans.

When the government runs a deficit, it accumulates debt, which Albertans must pay to service. In 2024/25, the government’s debt interest payments will cost each Albertan nearly $650. That’s largely because, despite running surpluses over the last few years, Albertans are still paying for debt accumulated during the most recent string of deficits from 2008/09 to 2020/21 (excluding 2014/15), which only ended when the government enjoyed an unexpected windfall in resource revenue in 2021/22.

According to Thursday’s mid-year fiscal update, Alberta’s finances continue to be at risk. To avoid deficits, the Smith government should meaningfully reduce spending so that it’s aligned with more reliable, stable levels of revenue.

Author:

Tegan Hill
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Alberta

Alberta fiscal update: second quarter is outstanding, challenges ahead

Published on November 21, 2024

By

Alberta maintains a balanced budget while ensuring pressures from population growth are being addressed.

Alberta faces rising risks, including ongoing resource volatility, geopolitical instability and rising pressures at home. With more than 450,000 people moving to Alberta in the last three years, the province has allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to address these pressures and ensure Albertans continue to be supported. Alberta’s government is determined to make every dollar go further with targeted and responsible spending on the priorities of Albertans.

The province is forecasting a $4.6 billion surplus at the end of 2024-25, up from the $2.9 billion first quarter forecast and $355 million from budget, due mainly to higher revenue from personal income taxes and non-renewable resources.

Given the current significant uncertainty in global geopolitics and energy markets, Alberta’s government must continue to make prudent choices to meet its responsibilities, including ongoing bargaining for thousands of public sector workers, fast-tracking school construction, cutting personal income taxes and ensuring Alberta’s surging population has access to high-quality health care, education and other public services.

“These are challenging times, but I believe Alberta is up to the challenge. By being intentional with every dollar, we can boost our prosperity and quality of life now and in the future.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Midway through 2024-25, the province has stepped up to boost support to Albertans this fiscal year through key investments, including:

  • $716 million to Health for physician compensation incentives and to help Alberta Health Services provide services to a growing and aging population.
  • $125 million to address enrollment growth pressures in Alberta schools.
  • $847 million for disaster and emergency assistance, including:
    • $647 million to fight the Jasper wildfires
    • $163 million for the Wildfire Disaster Recovery Program
    • $5 million to support the municipality of Jasper (half to help with tourism recovery)
    • $12 million to match donations to the Canadian Red Cross
    • $20 million for emergency evacuation payments to evacuees in communities impacted by wildfires
  • $240 million more for Seniors, Community and Social Services to support social support programs.

Looking forward, the province has adjusted its forecast for the price of oil to US$74 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate. It expects to earn more for its crude oil, with a narrowing of the light-heavy differential around US$14 per barrel, higher demand for heavier crude grades and a growing export capacity through the Trans Mountain pipeline. Despite these changes, Alberta still risks running a deficit in the coming fiscal year should oil prices continue to drop below $70 per barrel.

After a 4.4 per cent surge in the 2024 census year, Alberta’s population growth is expected to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2025, lower than the first quarter forecast of 3.2 per cent growth because of reduced immigration and non-permanent residents targets by the federal government.

Revenue

Revenue for 2024-25 is forecast at $77.9 billion, an increase of $4.4 billion from Budget 2024, including:

  • $16.6 billion forecast from personal income taxes, up from $15.6 billion at budget.
  • $20.3 billion forecast from non-renewable resource revenue, up from $17.3 billion at budget.

Expense

Expense for 2024-25 is forecast at $73.3 billion, an increase of $143 million from Budget 2024.

Surplus cash

After calculations and adjustments, $2.9 billion in surplus cash is forecast.

  • $1.4 billion or half will pay debt coming due.
  • The other half, or $1.4 billion, will be put into the Alberta Fund, which can be spent on further debt repayment, deposited into the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund and/or spent on one-time initiatives.

Contingency

Of the $2 billion contingency included in Budget 2024, a preliminary allocation of $1.7 billion is forecast.

Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund

The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund grew in the second quarter to a market value of $24.3 billion as of Sept. 30, 2024, up from $23.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.

  • The fund earned a 3.7 per cent return from July to September with a net investment income of $616 million, up from the 2.1 per cent return during the first quarter.

Debt

Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast at $84 billion as of March 31, 2025, $3.8 billion less than estimated in the budget because the higher surplus has lowered borrowing requirements.

  • Debt servicing costs are forecast at $3.2 billion, down $216 million from budget.

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