David Clinton
Is Marriage the Strongest Predictor of Wealth in Canada?

Love, they say, is a many-splendored thing. But I can tell you with confidence that, in Canada at least, it also pays handsomely.
Sharp downward trends in fertility rates are pointing to a bleak future. And as we’re discovering, immigration isn’t necessarily going to save us. Working on the reasonable assumption that the high costs of raising kids were holding us back, governments have been working for decades to encourage childbirth through programs like the Canada Child Tax Benefit. Their hearts were in the right place, but the result haven’t been great.
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The child and family support programs have been significant. For example, the average total of government support transfers in inflation-adjusted dollars paid to single parents have grown from $11,600 in 1976 to $19,400 in 2022. That amounts to around 29 percent of their average total earned income. Benefits for couples with children nearly tripled from a 1976 average of $5,800 to $15,300 by 2022. Those transfers included child benefits, employment insurance benefits, and social assistance.
But it turns out that even without government programs, marriage and parenting are both financially rewarding endeavors. In 2022, According to Statistics Canada, the average individual “not in an economic family” earned just $53,400 from both market (i.e., earned) income and government support. That same year, couples earned $135,600 – an increase of around 51 percent over what they would have earned in 1976. And the average couple with children took $169,900 home. For comparison, single parents earned just $80,100.
Of course it’s possible that couples who happen to be wealthier are more likely consider themselves capable of raising children, so to some extent they’re self-selecting. And some singles feel unable to start families because of crazy housing costs. Nevertheless, it seems that marriage and, to a lesser degree, parenthood are important predictors of higher income.
Are government social support programs behind the imbalance? Not so much. The average couple in 2022 received $7,300 in benefits, but that’s significantly less than the $9,800 that the average singles (without kids) got. In fact, it’s also a lot less than the $10,400 childless couples would have received from the government in 1976.
It’s clearly earned income that’s driving the greater wealth of both couples as a whole and couples with children.
This isn’t a new development. Throughout the half century since 1976 – when you exclude government benefits – couples have out-earned singles by an average of 140 percent. And couples with children have earned an average of 12.5 percent more than couples in general.
The bottom line is that couples – both with and without children – earn significantly more than both single parents and singles living outside of a family unit. This economic reality has persisted through financial crises, evolving government policy standards, and social upheavals.
That knowledge could play a role in young peoples’ thinking as they plan their lives. But it’s also one of many reasons that we, as a society, should aggressively protect the integrity of the family as an institution. All things being equal, families lead to better outcomes.
This idea is something found in no less a source than the United Nation’s Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Article 16):
The family is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the State.
There is something a bit strange about all this data that I can’t explain. between 1990 and 2004, the difference between total income of couples with children and total income of single parents was significantly greater than the years either before or since.
Many things happened in the early 90’s that might have triggered the growing disparity (like the introduction of the Canada Child Tax Benefit, increasing access to childcare, or a narrowing gender pay gap), but none of them suddenly stopped in 2004. And one could imagine similar social and policy changes that might have reduced the disparity after 2004 (like increased female workforce participation), but none of them really began in 2005.
That odd differential certainly looks real. But maybe it doesn’t mean anything. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Any thoughts to share?
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David Clinton
You’re Actually Voting for THEM? But why?

By David Clinton
Putting the “dialog” back in dialog
I hate it when public figures suggest that serious issues require a “dialog” or a “conversation”. That’s because real dialog and real conversation involve bi-directional communication, which is something very few public figures seem ready to undertake. Still, it would be nice is there was some practical mechanism through which a conversation could happen.
It should be obvious – and I’m sure you’ll agree – that no intelligent individual will be voting in the coming federal election for any party besides the one I’ve chosen. And yet I’ve got a nagging sense that, inexplicably, many of you have other plans. Which, since only intelligent people read The Audit, leads me directly to an epistemological conflict.
I have my doubts about the prospects for meaningful leadership debates. Even if such events are being planned, they’ll probably produce more shouting and slogans than a useful comparison of policy positions.
And I have remarkably little patience for opinion polls. Even if they turn out to have been accurate, they tell us absolutely nothing about what Canadians actually want. Poll numbers may be valuable to party campaign planners, but there’s very little there for me.
If I can’t even visualize the thinking taking place in other camps, I’m missing a big part of Canada’s biggest story. And I really don’t like being left out.
So I decided to ask you for your thoughts. I’d love for each of you to take a super-simple, one question survey. I’m not really interested in how you’re planning to vote, but why. I’m asked for open-ended explanations that justify your choice. Will your vote be a protest against something you don’t like or an expression of your confidence in one particular party? Is it just one issue that’s pushing you to the polling station or a whole set?
I’d do this as a Substack survey, but the Substack platform associates way too much of your private information with the results. I really, really want this one to be truly anonymous.
And when I say this is a “super simple” survey, I mean it. To make sure that absolutely no personal data accompanies your answers (and to save me having to work harder), the survey page is a charming throwback to PHP code in all its 1996 glory.
So please do take the survey: theaudit.ca/voting.
If there are enough responses, I plan to share my analysis of patterns and trends through The Audit.
Business
We’re paying the bills, why shouldn’t we have a say?

By David Clinton
Shaping Government Spending Choices to Reflect Taxpayer Preferences
Technically, the word “democracy” means “rule of the people”. But we all know that the ability to throw the bums out every few years is a poor substitute for “rule”. And as I’ve already demonstrated, the last set of bums you sent to Ottawa are 19 times more likely than not to simply vote along party lines. So who they are as individuals barely even matters.
This story isn’t new, and it hasn’t even got a decent villain. But it is about a universal weakness inherent in all modern, nation-scale democracies. After all, complex societies governed by hundreds of thousands of public servants who are responsible for spending trillions of dollars can’t realistically account for millions of individual voices. How could you even meaningfully process so many opinions?
Hang on. It’s 2025. These days, meaningfully processing lots of data is what we do. And the challenge of reliably collecting and administrating those opinions is trivial. I’m not suggesting we descend into some hellish form of governance by opinion poll. But I do wonder why we haven’t tried something that’s far more focused, measured, and verifiable: directed revenue spending.
Self-directed income tax payments? Crazy, no? Except that we’ve been doing it in Ontario for at least 60 years. We (sometimes) get to choose which of five school boards – English public, French public, English separate (Catholic), French separate (Catholic), or Protestant separate (Penetanguishene only) – will receive the education portion of our property tax.
Here’s how it could work. A set amount – perhaps 20 percent of the total federal tax you owe – would be considered discretionary. The T1 tax form could include the names of, say, ten spending programs next to numeric boxes. You would enter the percentage of the total discretionary portion of your income tax that you’d like directed to each program with the total of all ten boxes adding up to 100.
The specific programs made available might change from one year to the next. Some might appear only once every few years. That way, the departments responsible for executing the programs wouldn’t have to deal with unpredictable funding. But what’s more important, governments would have ongoing insights into what their constituents actually wanted them to be doing. If they disagreed, a government could up their game and do a better job explaining their preferences. Or it could just give up and follow the will of their taxpayers.
Since there would only be a limited number of pre-set options available, you wouldn’t have to worry about crackpot suggestions (“Nuke Amurika!”) or even reasoned and well-meaning protest campaigns (“Nuke Ottawa!”) taking over. And since everyone who files a tax form has to participate, you won’t have to worry about a small number of squeaky wheels dominating the public discourse.
Why would any governing party go along with such a plan? Well, they almost certainly won’t if that’s any comfort. Nevertheless, in theory at least, they could gain significant political legitimacy were their program preferences to receive overwhelming public support. And if politicians and civil servants truly believed they toil in the service of the people of Canada, they should be curious about what the people of Canada actually want.
What could go wrong?
Well the complexity involved with adding a new layer of constraints to spending planning can’t be lightly dismissed. And there’s always the risk that activists could learn to game the system by shaping mass movements through manipulative online messaging. The fact that wealthy taxpayers will have a disproportionate impact on spending also shouldn’t be ignored. Although, having said that, I’m not convinced that the voices of high-end taxpayers are less valuable than those of the paid lobbyists and PMO influencers who currently get all the attention.
Those are serious considerations. I’m decidedly less concerned about some other possible objections:
- The risk that taxpayers might demonstrate a preference for short term fixes or glamour projects over important long term wonkish needs (like debt servicing) rings hollow. Couldn’t those words just as easily describe the way many government departments already behave?
- Couldn’t taxpayer choices be influenced by dangerous misinformation campaigns? Allowing for the fact the words “misinformation campaign” make me nervous, that’s certainly possible. But I’m aware of no research demonstrating that, as a class, politicians and civil servants are somehow less susceptible to such influences.
- Won’t such a program allow governments to deflect responsibility for their actions? Hah! I spit in your face in rueful disdain! When was the last time any government official actually took responsibility (or even lost a job) over stupid decisions?
- Won’t restricting access to a large segment of funds make it harder to respond to time-sensitive emergencies? There are already plenty of political and policy-based constraints on emergency spending choices. There’s no reason this program couldn’t be structured intelligently enough to prevent appropriate responses to a genuine emergency.
This idea has no more chance of being applied as some of the crazy zero-tax ideas from my previous post. But things certainly aren’t perfect right now, and throwing some fresh ideas into the mix can’t hurt.
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