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Fraser Institute

Ignore climate-obsessed propagandists and enjoy your summer

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From the Fraser Institute

By Kenneth P. Green

Ah summer, a season we used to meet with joy. Outdoor parties, leisurely road trips, weekends at the beach, blazing barbecues by day, blazing bonfires by night. We used to sing paeans to the season—“Summertime, and the living is easy, fish are jumping and the cotton is high.”

But a strange thing has happened—the climate-obsessed folks have seized upon summer as a primary propaganda source and use it to demonize activities that might produce greenhouse gases. They don’t want your living to be easy. They want your coal or gas barbecues gone, your road trips gone, your air conditioning coolant weakened or gone, and so on. And every heatwave, every forest fire, every hint of drought, every reported case of heatstroke, and even observations of jumping catfish will be proof of a climate crisis where extreme weather will eventually kill us all.

But in a recent study, I found that the evidence of increases in extreme weather events in Canada and around the world is spotty and of limited quality, and often contradictory of the narrative.

First, what about wildfires? The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its latest climate report, only assigns “medium confidence” to the idea that climate change has actually caused increased “fire weather” in some regions on Earth.

Here at home, as average atmospheric temperatures have risen from 1970 to 2017, Canadian forest fires have actually declined sharply in number and show little obvious trend in areas burnt. As economist/professor Ross McKitrick observes: “Canadian forest fire data are available from the Wildland Fire Information System. Wildfires have been getting less frequent in Canada over the past 30 years. The annual number of fires grew from 1959 to 1990, peaking in 1989 at just over 12,000 that year, and has been trending down since. From 2017 to 2021 (the most recent interval available), there were about 5,500 fires per year, half the average from 1987 to 1991. The annual area burned also peaked 30 years ago. It grew from 1959 to 1990, peaking in 1989 at 7.6 million hectares before declining to the current average of 2.4 million hectares per year over 2017-21. And 2020 marked the lowest point on record with only 760,000 hectares burned.”

Well, but what about drought? According to an international research team, “In the vast majority of the world, trends in meteorological drought duration and magnitude are not statistically significant, with the exception of some small regions of Africa and South America, which is also where data uncertainty is greater.” The International Energy Agency (IEA) in a 2021 report suggests that drought severity in Canada from 2000 to 2020 was only slightly above the global average.

Well, but what about floods? The IPCC says floods have likely increased globally since 1950, but in Canada, at least, “there is a lack of detectable trends in observed annual maximum daily (or shorter duration) precipitation.”

So, summertime and the living is easy. Ignore the shrieks of the climate-obsessed about extreme weather coming for us all, and have some fun in the sun.

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Alberta

CPP another example of Albertans’ outsized contribution to Canada

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Amid the economic uncertainty fuelled by Trump’s trade war, its perhaps more important than ever to understand Alberta’s crucial role in the federation and its outsized contribution to programs such as the Canada Pension Plan (CPP).

From 1981 to 2022, Albertan’s net contribution to the CPP—meaning the amount Albertans paid into the program over and above what retirees in Alberta received in CPP payments—was $53.6 billion. In 2022 (the latest year of available data), Albertans’ net contribution to the CPP was $3.0 billion.

During that same period (1981 to 2022), British Columbia was the only other province where residents paid more into the CPP than retirees received in benefits—and Alberta’s contribution was six times greater than B.C.’s contribution. Put differently, residents in seven out of the nine provinces that participate in the CPP (Quebec has its own plan) receive more back in benefits than they contribute to the program.

Albertans pay an outsized contribution to federal and national programs, including the CPP because of the province’s relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes and younger population (i.e. more workers pay into the CPP and less retirees take from it).

Put simply, Albertan workers have been helping fund the retirement of Canadians from coast to coast for decades, and without Alberta, the CPP would look much different.

How different?

If Alberta withdrew from the CPP and established its own standalone provincial pension plan, Alberta workers would receive the same retirement benefits but at a lower cost (i.e. lower CPP contribution rate deducted from our paycheques) than other Canadians, while the contribution rate—essentially the CPP tax rate—to fund the program would likely need to increase for the rest of the country to maintain the same benefits.

And given current demographic projections, immigration patterns and Alberta’s long history of leading the provinces in economic growth, Albertan workers will likely continue to pay more into the CPP than Albertan retirees get back from it.

Therefore, considering Alberta’s crucial role in national programs, the next federal government—whoever that may be—should undo and prevent policies that negatively impact the province and Albertans ability to contribute to Canada. Think of Bill C-69 (which imposes complex, uncertain and onerous review requirements on major energy projects), Bill C-48 (which bans large oil tankers off B.C.’s northern coast and limits access to Asian markets), an arbitrary cap on oil and gas emissions, numerous other “net-zero” targets, and so on.

Canada faces serious economic challenges, including a trade war with the United States. In times like this, it’s important to remember Alberta’s crucial role in the federation and the outsized contributions of Alberta workers to the wellbeing of Canadians across the country.

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2025 Federal Election

Homebuilding in Canada stalls despite population explosion

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From the Fraser Institute

By Austin Thompson and Steven Globerman

Between 1972 and 2019, Canada’s population increased by 1.8 residents for every new housing unit started compared to 3.9 new residents in 2024. In other words, Canada must now house more than twice as many new residents per new housing unit as it did during the five decades prior to the pandemic

In many parts of Canada, the housing affordability crisis continues with no end in sight. And many Canadians, priced out of the housing market or struggling to afford rent increases, are left wondering how much longer this will continue.

Simply put, too few housing units are being built for the country’s rapidly growing population, which has exploded due to record-high levels of immigration and the federal government’s residency policies.

As noted in a new study published by the Fraser Institute, the country added an all-time high 1.2 million new residents in 2023—more than double the previous record in 2019—and another 951,000 new residents in 2024. Altogether, Canada’s population has grown by about 3 million people since 2022—roughly matching the total population increase during the 1990s.

Meanwhile, homebuilding isn’t keeping up. In 2024, construction started on roughly 245,000 new housing units nationwide—down from a recent peak of 272,000 in 2021. By contrast, in the 1970s construction started on more than 240,000 housing units (on average) per year—when Canada’s population grew by approximately 280,000 people annually.

In fact, between 1972 and 2019, Canada’s population increased by 1.8 residents for every new housing unit started compared to 3.9 new residents in 2024. In other words, Canada must now house more than twice as many new residents per new housing unit as it did during the five decades prior to the pandemic. And of course, housing follows the laws of supply and demand—when a lot more prospective buyers and renters chase a limited supply of new homes, prices increase.

This key insight should guide the policy responses from all levels of government.

For example, the next federal government—whoever that may be—should avoid policies that merely fuel housing demand such as home savings accounts. And provincial governments (including in Ontario and British Columbia) should scrap any policies that discourage new housing supply such as rent controls, which reduce incentives to build rental housing. At the municipal level, governments across the country should ensure that permit approval timelines and building fees do not discourage builders from breaking ground. Increasing housing supply is, however, only part of the solution. The next federal government should craft immigration and residency policies so population growth doesn’t overwhelm available housing supply, driving up costs for Canadians.

It’s hard to predict how long Canada’s housing affordability crisis will last. But without more homebuilding, slower population growth, or both, there’s little reason to expect affordability woes to subside anytime soon.

Austin Thompson

Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

Steven Globerman

Senior Fellow and Addington Chair in Measurement, Fraser Institute
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