Canadians’ real per capita incomes have stalled in the past five years, but that hasn’t been the case in other rich countries
By Jack Mintz
Last week, I wrote about Canada’s poor economic performance over the past five years compared to the United States and other industrialized countries. To recap, Canada’s standard of living has been becalmed, “as a painted ship upon a paint ocean.” Sure, we went through a bad year with the pandemic in 2020. So did other countries. Yet, we fell behind. Over the last five years, as our growth stalled, U.S. per capita GDP grew 9.3 per cent, the OECD average 5.6 per cent, resource-rich Australia 4.8 per cent and Ireland an astonishing 31 per cent.
According to IMF statistics, our share of world GDP (in purchasing-power-parity dollars), has fallen six per cent, from 1.44 per cent in 2018 to 1.36 per cent in 2023. We shouldn’t even be a G7 country anymore: in PPP dollars our economy is only the world’s 16th biggest, right behind Spain.
But that’s the past. What about the future? In 2021, the OECD projected that our economy would perform worse this decade than all other member countries, with per capita real GDP growing only 0.7 per cent annually — though at least that would be an improvement over the past five years. The big question is why Canada is at the bottom of the heap. There are several reasons:
• The demographic time bomb: Economic growth will be more challenging this decade as many boomers retire and begin supporting their consumption by cashing in pension and other assets. Many other high-income countries, no different than Canada, are also aging rapidly, with retirees rising from roughly 25 per cent of the working population in 2020 to 40 per cent in 2035. With fewer people working and saving, GDP per capita will naturally decline (even if GDP per worker rises). Canada traditionally has been able to attract younger immigrants to make up for the output loss but international markets for skilled labour are increasingly competitive as workers, including ones born in Canada, pick and choose the country they feel offers them the best opportunities.
• Indebtedness: With interest rates higher than they have been, indebtedness also hurts economic growth. To cope with higher payments on mortgages and consumer debt, households, corporations and governments will deleverage by consuming fewer goods and services. Canada’s governments may be carrying less debt than their U.S. and G7 counterparts, but Canadian households and corporations are carrying more — fully 216 per cent of GDP in 2022, compared to 186 in Japan, 153 in the U.S., 150 in the U.K., 127 in German and just 110 per cent in Italy. Only France, with private debts equal to 228 per cent of its GDP, will experience a greater debt drag on growth than we will.
• Shrinking world trade: Growing protectionism will especially hurt countries that rely, as we do, on trade as a source of economic growth. We currently export 33 per cent of GDP, primarily to the U.S. Geo-political tensions and decoupling from China will hit us harder than other places, like the U.S., where trade matters less.
• A costly energy transition: The extraordinary cost of building new transportation, heating and industrial energy systems over the next few years won’t realize benefits for decades, if at all. The highest value-added per working hour in 2022 was earned in non-conventional oil extraction at $997 — more than 16 times the average of all industries ($61) and almost five times more than in mining ($205). Shifting labour out of an activity where value-added is that high means GDP will surely fall.
Energy is our largest source of export earnings so any reduction in exports will push the Canadian dollar down. With the federal government hell-bent on stopping new fossil-fuel development, especially of liquified natural gas, we will spend the next couple of decades throwing away wealth that could provide income to Canadians and taxes for governments. Our ideologically driven energy transition will cause us to lag countries like the U.S., Norway and Australia, which continue to develop and export energy while also working on clean technologies.
New technologies: The coming decade does offer the growth-friendly promise of new technologies. AI, continuing digitization and any number of innovations we can’t anticipate will allow us to produce more with the resources we have. On the other hand, adopting new technologies requires investing in new capital. And this is where Canada is weak. Since 2018 Canadian corporate investment has been about 10 per cent of GDP — almost a fifth below the United States and the OECD in general. The OECD says our poor investment performance will cost us 0.4 percentage points in per capita GDP growth every year this decade, more than in any other OECD country.
Why is our standard of living slipping compared to other industrialized economies? Demographics aside, we impose higher barriers to economic growth than our major trading partners do, especially the U.S. Innovation continues to generate great opportunities for us but if business investment remains moribund, we will miss out on many of them. Forget identity politics — growth and investment are now our top priorities.
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According to a recent study, living standards in Canada have declined over the past five years. And the country’s economic growth has been “ugly.” Crucially, all 10 provinces are experiencing this economic stagnation—there are no exceptions to Canada’s “ugly” growth record. In 2026, reversing this trend should be the top priority for the Carney government and provincial governments across the country.
Indeed, demographic and economic data across the country tell a remarkably similar story over the past five years. While there has been some overall economic growth in almost every province, in many cases provincial populations, fuelled by record-high levels of immigration, have grown almost as quickly. Although the total amount of economic production and income has increased from coast to coast, there are more people to divide that income between. Therefore, after we account for inflation and population growth, the data show Canadians are not better off than they were before.
Let’s dive into the numbers (adjusted for inflation) for each province. In British Columbia, the economy has grown by 13.7 per cent over the past five years but the population has grown by 11.0 per cent, which means the vast majority of the increase in the size of the economy is likely due to population growth—not improvements in productivity or living standards. In fact, per-person GDP, a key indicator of living standards, averaged only 0.5 per cent per year over the last five years, which is a miserable result by historic standards.
A similar story holds in other provinces. Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Quebec and Saskatchewan all experienced some economic growth over the past five years but their populations grew at almost exactly the same rate. As a result, living standards have barely budged. In the remaining provinces (Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Ontario, Manitoba and Alberta), population growth has outstripped economic growth, which means that even though the economy grew, living standards actually declined.
This coast-to-coast stagnation of living standards is unique in Canadian history. Historically, there’s usually variation in economic performance across the country—when one region struggles, better performance elsewhere helps drive national economic growth. For example, in the early 2010s while the Ontario and Quebec economies recovered slowly from the 2008/09 recession, Alberta and other resource-rich provinces experienced much stronger growth. Over the past five years, however, there has not been a “good news” story anywhere in the country when it comes to per-person economic growth and living standards.
In reality, Canada’s recent record-high levels of immigration and population growth have helped mask the country’s economic weakness. With more people to buy and sell goods and services, the overall economy is growing but living standards have barely budged. To craft policies to help raise living standards for Canadian families, policymakers in Ottawa and every provincial capital should remove regulatory barriers, reduce taxes and responsibly manage government finances. This is the great policy challenge for governments across the country in 2026 and beyond.
A Minneapolis day care run by Somali immigrants is claiming that a mysterious break-in wiped out its most sensitive records, even as police say officers were never told that anything was actually stolen — a discrepancy that’s drawing sharp attention amid Minnesota’s spiraling child care fraud scandal.
According to the center’s manager, Nasrulah Mohamed, someone forced their way into Nakomis Day Care Center earlier this week by entering through a rear kitchen area, damaging a wall and accessing the office. Mohamed told reporters the intruder made off with “important documentation,” including children’s enrollment records, employee files, and checkbooks tied to the facility’s operations.
But a preliminary report from the Minneapolis Police Department tells a different story. Police say no loss was reported to officers at the time of the call. While the department confirmed the center later contacted police with additional information, an updated report was not immediately available.
Video released by the day care purporting to show damage from the incident depicts a hole punched through drywall inside what appears to be a utility closet, with stacks of cinder blocks visible just behind the wall — imagery that has only fueled skepticism as investigators continue to unravel what authorities have described as one of the largest fraud schemes ever tied to Minnesota’s human services programs.
Mohamed blamed the alleged break-in on fallout from a viral investigation by YouTuber Nick Shirley, who recently toured nearly a dozen Minnesota day care sites while questioning whether they were legitimately operating. Shirley’s video has racked up more than 110 million views. Mohamed insisted the coverage unfairly targeted Somali operators and said his center has since received what he described as hateful and threatening messages.
A manager at the Nokomis Daycare Center in Minneapolis detailed "extensive vandalism" at the facility during a Wednesday news conference.
Manager Nasrulah Mohamed reported that the suspect stole important employee and client documents, an incident he attributed to YouTuber Nick… pic.twitter.com/71nNTSXdTT
“This is devastating news, and we don’t know why this is targeting our Somali community,” Mohamed said, calling Shirley’s reporting false. Nakomis Day Care Center was not among the facilities featured in the video.
The break-in claim surfaced as law enforcement and federal officials continue to expose a massive fraud network centered in Minneapolis, involving food assistance, housing, and child care payments. Authorities say at least $1 billion has already been identified as fraudulent, with federal prosecutors warning the total could climb as high as $9 billion. Ninety-two people have been charged so far, 80 of them Somali immigrants.
Late Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced it was freezing all federal child care payments to Minnesota unless the state can prove the funds are being used lawfully. The payments totaled roughly $185 million in 2025 alone.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, under intensifying scrutiny for allowing fraud to metastasize for years, responded by attacking the Trump administration rather than addressing the substance of the findings. “This is Trump’s long game,” Walz wrote on X Tuesday night, claiming the administration was politicizing fraud enforcement to defund programs — despite federal officials pointing to documented abuse and ongoing criminal cases.
Meanwhile, questions continue to swirl around facilities already flagged by investigators. Reporters visiting several sites highlighted in Shirley’s video found at least one — Quality “Learing” Center — operating with children inside despite state officials previously saying it had been shut down. The Minnesota Department of Children, Youth, and Families later issued a confusing clarification, saying the center initially reported it would close but later claimed it would remain open.
As Minnesota scrambles to respond to the funding freeze and mounting arrests, the conflicting accounts surrounding the Nakomis Day Care incident underscore a broader problem confronting state leaders: a system so riddled with gaps and contradictions that even basic facts — like whether records were actually stolen — are now in dispute, while taxpayers are left holding the bill.
