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Alberta

Focus on tangible policies—not political finger-pointing— to reduce fire risks

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From the Fraser Institute

By Kenneth P. Green

Was the very specific area around Jasper—not the entire forested lands of Alberta—managed aggressively enough?

With the picturesque town of Jasper badly damaged by fire, Albertans and Canadians across the country are wondering how such destruction was allowed to happen.

Much of the public debate assumes that the disaster, in some way, was human-caused or aggravated by governmental negligence or incompetence. Some argue that government policies to suppress natural wildfires, which were widely implemented across North America after the Second World War, allowed the build-up of massive amounts of fuel for potential mega-blazes. Others argue that governments have been negligent by failing to allow aggressive logging of dead trees and by using insufficient controlled burns to manage fuel loads of underbrush. Some, of course, blame climate change—specifically human-caused climate change. And yes, the climate has changed, warming about 1.2 degrees Celsius since 1850, which may contribute to a heightened risk of forest fires (although there’s no ability to attribute any single climatic event to climate change).

But focusing on these issues misses the forest for the trees and raises philosophical questions about humanity’s relationship with nature, specifically, whether or not it’s desirable—much less feasible—for humanity to think we can control nature at large scales and turn the world into a giant tame botanical garden. Further, focusing on these questions of “too much” or “too little” intervention mostly serves political interests trying to beat each other over the head about climate policies, which are at best capable of only slightly—very slightly—affecting the risk of future forest fires.

Rather, having studied environmental, health and safety policy for several decades, I believe we should focus on very different specific questions about how the fire was allowed to ravage Jasper. These questions cut through the foggier questions of how we manage nature and instead focus on how we manage human risks.

So, was the very specific area around Jasper—not the entire forested lands of Alberta—managed aggressively enough? In 2018, 350 hectares of trees around Jasper were removed. Apparently, that was not enough to protect the human-built environment. Parks Canada will have to answer that question in time.

Did the provincial and federal governments fall short in maintaining sufficient fire-fighting capabilities to protect Jasper? According to some reports, this was a significant source of failure, where the federal government, which maintains no ability to fight fires at night, failed to coordinate with Alberta’s provincial government, which does have night-fighting capabilities.

Did the town of Jasper take enough precautions to protect itself from the risk of conflagration? Are building codes in Jasper sufficiently stringent at fire-proofing human structures? Is the fuel burden within the township itself sufficiently controlled? More broadly, how much are we willing to spend to reduce risks? And how far should we aim to reduce those risks?

The answers to these questions could help produce tangible policies that may help reduce the risk of fire damage in the future.

There’s a lot of finger-pointing right now. Political point-scoring is the order of the day, particularly in the realm of climate policies. But using the Jasper fire for political ends distracts from the important questions about whether or not anybody or any level of government should try to tame nature outside of human-built environments. And about what policies will work best to protect towns like Jasper.

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Alberta

Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

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Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:

“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.

“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.

“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.

“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.

“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.

“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”

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Alberta

Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.

Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.

In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.

Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.

The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.

Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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