Federal government poised to pile on more spending and debt

Next week, the Trudeau government will release its fall fiscal update, which, considering the sorry state of federal finances, should demonstrate a newfound approach to spending and borrowing. But don’t hold your breath.

Although the Trudeau government describes itself as “fiscally responsible,” in reality it has a track record of unrestrained spending and large budget deficits. And it’s overseen the five highest years (2018 to 2022) of per-person program spending (adjusted for inflation) in Canadian history. Even excluding COVID-related spending, 2020 and 2021 remain the two highest years of per-person spending on record.

The Trudeau government has also run deficits every year since it took office in 2015—according to forecasts, this year’s deficit will eclipse $40 billion even though COVID is in the rearview mirror. Consequently, federal debt will have increased nearly $900 billion since 2014/15, up to $1.9 trillion for 2023/24.

While the prime minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland often downplay the level of debt accumulation by noting that Canada has the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio among the G7 countries (Germany, Italy, Japan, France, the United Kingdom and the United States), this is misleading.

Net debt is calculated as total (gross) debt minus all financial assets, with the implicit assumption that those assets could be used to offset debt. However, the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans (CPP and QPP) are included in the financial assets used to calculate net debt in Canada. But because CPP/QPP assets are needed for existing and future retirees, in reality they can’t be used to offset government debt.

Therefore, a better measure is gross debt, which measures all liabilities that require future payment of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor. Compared to 29 other advanced economies, including the G7 countries, Canada’s gross debt as a share of the economy ranks 20th—meaning Canada is among the most indebted countries.

Clearly, the Trudeau government has been anything but fiscally responsible. And the current levels of spending and borrowing impose real costs on Canadians.

For example, since 2014/15 federal government debt interest costs have nearly doubled—reaching an estimated $43.9 billion, or 9.6 per cent of total revenues, for 2023/24. This means roughly one in every 10 dollars Ottawa collects from Canadian taxpayers this year will go towards debt interest costs, rather than government services or tax relief.

In light of these fiscal realities, if the Trudeau government wants to move anywhere close to a balanced budget in the foreseeable future, it must take meaningful steps in the upcoming fall fiscal update to restrain spending growth.

Unfortunately, this is unlikely to happen.

In a recent report, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) estimated that, due to spending increases, the federal government will run a deficit of $46.5 billion for 2023/24—$6.4 billion more than the government’s budget projections in March.

The government will also likely include new spending in the upcoming fiscal update meant to address housing and affordability. And will likely soon table legislation on national pharmacare, which the PBO estimates will cost $11.2 billion in 2024/25 alone.

Finally, not only does this unprecedented level of spending rack up mountains of debt, according to Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, “government spending is starting to get in the way of getting inflation back to target.” In other words, more spending by the federal government to address affordability concerns could actually worsen the problem by keeping inflation (and interest rates) higher than would otherwise be the case, eroding the purchasing power of Canadians.

While Ottawa’s fiscal situation demands a fiscally responsible fall fiscal update, it’s likely we’ll see much of the same next week from the Trudeau government—more spending and more borrowing.

Authors:

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Junior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

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Canada Revenue Agency has found a way to hit “Worse Than Rock Bottom”

Published on October 21, 2025

Todayville

From Conservative Part Communications

Last month, Carney’s Minister responsible for the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) debuted their new slogan: “It can’t get much worse than it is now.” Today, the Auditor General reported that under the Liberals, it has.

Over the 2024/25 period, only 18 per cent of callers were able to reach a CRA agent within 15 minutes, a far cry from the target of 65 per cent of callers. In June, the numbers plunged to just 5 per cent of callers able to get through within the service standard of 15 minutes.

The average wait time took over half an hour, double what it was the year prior. And that was if you were even given the option of getting help. Nearly nine million calls were “deflected” by an automated voice telling Canadians to figure it out themselves, with no option to speak with an agent.

Wait times are so bad that over 7.6 million calls were disconnected before callers were able to reach an agent or be provided automated service. As wait times continue to get worse and worse, Canadians have just given up, evidenced by 2.4 million more abandoned calls over the previous year.

Even when Canadians manage to get hold of an agent, employees regularly fail to provide correct information about personal and business taxes. Auditors found the call centre gave incorrect information 83 per cent of the time when asked general individual tax questions.

Non-specific questions about benefits, including about eligibility, were wrong 44 per cent of the time. Meanwhile, the CRA’s automated chatbot “Charlie”, meant to relieve the call centre, answered only two of six tax-related questions correctly.

“How is it that an organization so important to the smooth functioning of the country is failing to serve Canadians and, as the Auditor General notes, places greater importance on adhering to shift schedules and breaks than on the accuracy and completeness of the information provided?” asked Gérard Deltell, Conservative Shadow Minister for Revenue.

It’s no surprise that complaints about the CRA’s contact centre increased 145 per cent from 2021/22 to 2024/25. Despite this, the Liberals announced they will begin auto-filing taxes for 5.5 million Canadians, automatically enrolling people in benefits the CRA is regularly unable to provide accurate information about.

Worse of all, the cost of the CRA’s call centre has ballooned from $50 million over 10 years in 2015 to $190 million. The total cost is projected to continue rising to $214 million over the next two years, a more than 320 per cent increase from the original contracted amount.

Meanwhile, Auditors found “there was no process documented or followed to ensure that amounts invoiced … were accurate and reflected the services received,” and that there was “little evidence that invoice details were appropriately reviewed and approved by … the Canada Revenue Agency prior to issuing payment.”

The Liberals have delivered higher taxes and higher costs with worse service for Canadians. We deserve better than continued Liberal failures. Conservatives will continue holding Carney accountable and fight to cut taxes and waste so Canadians keep more of what they earn.

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Canada has fewer doctors, hospital beds, MRI machines—and longer wait times—than most other countries with universal health care

Published on October 21, 2025

Todayville

From the Fraser Institute

By Mackenzie Moir

Despite a relatively high level of spending, Canada has significantly fewer doctors, hospital beds, MRI machines and CT scanners compared to other countries with universal health care, finds a new study released today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“There’s a clear imbalance between the high cost of Canada’s health-care system and the actual care Canadians receive in return,” said Mackenzie Moir, senior policy
analyst at the Fraser Institute and author of Comparing Performance of Universal Health-Care Countries, 2025.

In 2023, the latest year of available comparable data, Canada spent more on health care (as a percentage of the economy/GDP, after adjusting for population age) than
most other high-income countries with universal health care (ranking 3rd out of 31 countries, which include the United Kingdom, Australia and the Netherlands).
And yet, Canada ranked 27th (of 30 countries) for the availability of doctors and 25th (of 30) for the availability of hospital beds.

In 2022, the latest year of diagnostic technology data, Canada ranked 27th (of 31 countries) for the availability of MRI machines and 28th (of 31) for CT scanners.
And in 2023, among the nine countries with universal health-care systems included in the Commonwealth Fund’s International Health Policy Survey, Canada ranked last for the percentage of patients able to make same- or next-day appointments when sick (22 per cent) and had the highest percentage of patients (58 per cent) who waited two months or more for non-emergency surgery. For comparison, the Netherlands had much higher rates of same- or next-day appointments (47 per cent) and much lower waits of two months or more for non-emergency surgery (20 per cent).

“To improve health care for Canadians, our policymakers should learn from other countries around the world with higher-performing universal health-care systems,”
said Nadeem Esmail, director of health policy at the Fraser Institute.

Comparing Performance of Universal Health Care Countries, 2025

Of the 31 high-income universal health-care countries, Canada ranks among the highest spenders, but ranks poorly on both the availability of most resources and access to services.
After adjustments for differences in the age of the population of these 31 countries, Canada ranked third highest for spending as a percentage of GDP in 2023 (the most recent year of comparable data).
Across 13 indictors measured, the availability of medical resources and timely access to medical services in Canada was generally below that of the average OECD country.
In 2023, Canada ranked 27th (of 30) for the relative availability of doctors and 25th (of 30) for hospital beds dedicated to physical care. In 2022, Canada ranked 27th (of 31) for the relative availability of Magnetic Resonance Im-aging (MRI) machines, and 28th (of 31) for CT scanners.
Canada ranked last (or close to last) on three of four indicators of timeliness of care.
Notably, among the nine countries for which comparable wait times measures are available, Canada ranked last for the percentage of patients reporting they were able to make a same- or next-day appointment when sick (22%).
Canada also ranked eighth worst for the percentage of patients who waited more than one month to see a specialist (65%), and reported the highest percentage of patients (58%) who waited two months or more for non-emergency surgery.
Clearly, there is an imbalance between what Canadians get in exchange for the money they spend on their health-care system.