Alberta
Alberta Environment Minister Schulz preparing for impending drought
Taking action on drought in Alberta
“Alberta has five stages in its water management plan. Ranging from Stage 1, which is a minor drought to Stage 5, which is a province-wide emergency. We are currently in Stage 4.”
Water is one of Alberta’s most precious resources. We all use it, consume it, and rely on it.
Most of the water that Albertans use to drink, grow crops, run our businesses and sustain our environment comes from rain and melting snow. The last three years have brought droughts and water shortages in various parts of our province, including most of Southern Alberta this summer.
The world is also experiencing El Niño, a global phenomenon occurring for the first time in seven years. It’s causing less snow and rain, along with higher temperatures, around the world this winter. Recent forecasts indicate that there is a 62 percent chance that the unusually warm and dry conditions that we have experienced could continue until June 2024.
Alberta has five stages in its water management plan. Ranging from Stage 1, which is a minor drought to Stage 5, which is a province-wide emergency. We are currently in Stage 4.
Our government is now preparing for the possibility of a serious drought next year. The good news is
that Alberta is up to the challenge. This province has navigated droughts before and has a long, proud
history of coming together during tough times.
Officials in the department of Environment and Protected Areas have stood up a Drought Command Team and work is underway to finalize a Drought Emergency Plan.
Meetings have been held with communities, farmers, businesses and others to prepare. Many have
already taken action to implement conservation measures and adapt to reduced water levels. Our
government has announced up to $165 million in federal-provincial drought relief for livestock
producers. And, this summer and fall, Calgary, Medicine Hat and other communities adopted voluntary and mandatory restrictions on water use to help Alberta’s stressed river basins.
I commend the collective actions taken so far by so many people throughout Alberta.
Over the coming months, we will be carefully monitoring snowpack, rainfall, river levels and actual water use to develop our early warning capacity. We will use this information and scientific modelling to assess the risk of drought next year. We have launched alberta.ca/drought to keep all Albertans updated as we take these steps.
Together with our partners, we are doing everything we can to be fully prepared for whatever next year brings. An advisory panel of experts to help provide advice will be formed in the months ahead. And we are preparing for the future, looking at what long-term infrastructure is needed to help manage water supplies for future generations.
We cannot make it rain or snow, but all of us have a role to play. Conserving water can help your
community, as well as Albertans downstream from you. In the coming months, we will all have to pull
together to secure our province’s water supply. It is a challenge that I am confident Albertans will meet.
Rebecca Schulz, Minister of Environment and Protected Areas
Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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