Governments are going to have to address sluggish productivity growth. Either that or get turfed at the polls
Last week, I summed up 2023 as a year of poor economic performance, with high interest rates, declining real per capita GDP and shortages of housing and health care. Should we expect more of the same from 2024 or something better and brighter?
On the economic side, the most important wind of change will be a shift from rising to falling interest rates. BMO forecasts CPI growth at close to 2.8 per cent in Canada, 1.1 percentage points lower than in 2023 though still higher than the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target. BMO thinks interest rates, including mortgage rates, will edge down by roughly a point, buoying stock and bond markets that were flat through most of 2023 after a disastrous 2022.
Although high interest rates have made headway in controlling inflation, they come at a cost. BMO predicts Canada’s GDP growth will fall to 0.5 per cent (from just one per cent this year) even with continuing high immigration levels. Per capita GDP will thus likely take a hit again, falling by at least two per cent, and the unemployment rate could edge up by a point to 6.4 per cent. That means the “misery index” — the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates — will remain virtually unchanged (9.2 per cent in 2024 vs. 9.3 per cent in 2023).
With the Bank of Canada, like other central banks, focused on its inflation target, the crucial question becomes whether federal and provincial policies switch over to combating weak economic growth and productivity.
In the short term, the Trudeau government seems fixated on new redistributive programs such as denticare and pharmacare, rather than addressing the alarming decline in per capita GDP. Quite the contrary, its primary “growth” policy is to pursue a fast-paced energy transition regardless of the immediate GDP loss. Few plans are in place to improve private investment in innovation and investment, not unless you count extraordinarily reckless auto subsidies. And in Ottawa regulations grow like weeds, slowing the pace of development.
The provinces are not much better in addressing growth. B.C. and several others show little interest in reversing the relentless increase in payroll, corporate, property and personal taxes. Alberta’s promises to lower personal income taxes seem lost to the wind. The provinces, especially Ontario, are at least focussing on housing and transportation infrastructure, but they show little concern over falling education standards in mathematics and literacy or their growth-killing tax rates.
The federal government and most provinces, especially B.C. and Ontario, are facing a surge in deficits without any real plan to improve their own productivity. Working with various governments, I am struck by how far behind the times public-sector technology often is. At a recent meeting in Ottawa, I saw some highly skilled civil servants wrestle with old printers trying to print out materials for review. A friend relates how because of lack of digitization it took a surprisingly long time just to get a list of past property tax payments from the city of Toronto. Few hospitals seem to be spending on new technologies that can process patients more quickly in emergency wards. With such poor technology, governments instead simply add more workers to their bloated bureaucracies.
Maybe 2024 will be the year in which governments finally focus on growth. If they don’t, they may find themselves turfed out at election time. Around the world, 2024 is the year of the election, with the most national elections ever: in 40 countries covering 42 per cent of global GDP. The major ones are in Bangladesh, Belgium, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Taiwan, the European Parliament and, of course, the United States. Even some authoritarian governments face their electorates this year, for instance, Iran, Russia and Venezuela.
Many of the genuine elections could have a big impact on geopolitics and the world economy. Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Investment Management, argues that “The world is now completely dependent on the good sense of leaders to avoid an Armageddon.” Stock markets should be priced to reflect this political risk. Political developments could erode global trade and co-operation and aggravate hostilities in Eastern Europe, East Asia and the Middle East.
For Canada, the critical election takes place in the United States. But whoever wins the presidency in November (or later!), we’re likely to be hit by increasing U.S. protectionism. And if U.S. per capita GDP continues to rise faster than ours, as it did over the last decade, we will either find a new economic path or watch skilled workers and business investment literally go south on us.
We aren’t due for an election until 2025 but rumours abound that the Jekyll-and-Hyde NDP will finally act out its criticisms of Liberal policy and pull the plug this year. The Liberals won’t trigger an election if they continue to trail the Conservatives by 10 points or more. But the NDP may figure it can pick up seats, especially in Ontario.
With the winds of change blowing, Canada may see federal and provincial governments try a different approach to economic policy, one focused on economic growth rather than just redistribution. Both levels of government need to address our falling per capita GDP. If they do, Canadians will have something to cheer about by the end of 2024.
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In the first 100 days, a new Conservative government will pass 3 laws:
1. Affordability For a Change Act—cutting spending, income tax, sales tax off homes
2. Safety For a Change Act to lock up criminals
3. Bring Home Jobs Act—that repeals C-69, sets up 6 month permit turnarounds for new projects
No summer holiday til they pass!
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre announced today that as Prime Minister he will cancel the summer holiday for Ottawa politicians and introduce three pieces of legislation to make life affordable, stop crime, and unleash our economy to bring back powerful paycheques. Because change can’t wait.
A new Conservative government will kickstart the plan to undo the damage of the Lost Liberal Decade and restore the promise of Canada with a comprehensive legislative agenda to reverse the worst Trudeau laws and cut the cost of living, crack down on crime, and unleash the Canadian economy with ‘100 Days of Change.’ Parliament will not rise until all three bills are law and Canadians get the change they voted for.
“After three Liberal terms, Canadians want change now,” said Poilievre. “My plan for ‘100 Days of Change’ will deliver that change. A new Conservative government will immediately get to work, and we will not stop until we have delivered lower costs, safer streets, and bigger paycheques.”
The ’100 Days of Change’ will include three pieces of legislation:
The Affordability–For a Change Act
Will lower food prices, build more homes, and bring back affordability for Canadians by:
Cutting income taxes by 15%. The average worker will keep an extra $900 each year, while dual-income families will keep $1,800 more annually.
Axing the carbon tax in full. Repeal the entire carbon tax law, including the federal industrial carbon tax backstop, to restore our industrial base and take back control of our economy from the Americans.
Scrapping Liberal fuel regulations and electricity taxes to lower the cost of heating, gas, and fuel.
Identify 15% of federal buildings and lands to sell for housing in Canadian cities.
The Safe Streets–For a Change Act
Will end the Liberal violent crime wave by:
Repealing all the Liberal laws that caused the violent crime wave, including catch-and-release Bill C-75, which lets rampant criminals go free within hours of their arrest.
Introducing a “three strikes, you’re out” rule. After three serious offences, offenders will face mandatory minimum 10-year prison sentences with no bail, parole, house arrest, or probation.
This Act will be rocket fuel for our economy. We will unleash Canada’s vast resource wealth, bring back investment, and create powerful paycheques for workers so we can stand on our own feet and stand up to Trump from a position of strength, by:
Bringing in the Canada First Reinvestment Tax Cutto reward Canadians who reinvest their earnings back into our country, unlocking billions for home building, manufacturing, and tools, training and technology to boost productivity for Canadian workers.
Creating a One-Stop-Shop to safely and rapidly approve resource projects, with one simple application and one environmental review within one year.
Poilievre will also:
Call President Trump to end the damaging and unjustified tariffs and accelerate negotiations to replace CUSMA with a new deal on trade and security. We need certainty—not chaos, but Conservatives will never compromise on our sovereignty and security.
Get Phase 2 of LNG Canada built to double the project’s natural gas production.
Accelerate at least nine other projects currently snarled in Liberal red tape to get workers working and Canada building again.
“After the Lost Liberal Decade of rising costs and crime and a falling economy under America’s thumb, we cannot afford a fourth Liberal term,” said Poilievre. “We need real change, and that is what Conservatives will bring in the first 100 days of a new government. A new Conservative government will get to work on Day 1 and we won’t stop until we have delivered the change we promised, the change Canadians deserve, the change Canadians voted for.”
Electric vehicle prices fell 7.8 per cent in the last quarter of 2024 year-over-year, according to the AutoTader price index
Fewer Canadians are considering buying an electric vehicle, marking the third year in a row interest has dropped despite lower EV prices, a survey from AutoTrader shows.
Forty-two per cent of survey respondents say they’re considering an EV as their next vehicle, down from 46 per cent last year. In 2022, 68 per cent said they would consider buying an EV.
Meanwhile, 29 per cent of respondents say they would exclusively consider buying an EV — a significant drop from 40 per cent last year.
The report, which surveyed 1,801 people on the AutoTrader website, shows drivers are concerned about reduced government incentives, a lack of infrastructure and long-term costs despite falling prices.
Electric vehicle prices fell 7.8 per cent in the last quarter of 2024 year-over-year, according to the AutoTader price index.
The survey, conducted between Feb. 13 and March 12, shows 68 per cent of non-EV owners say government incentives could influence their decision, while a little over half say incentives increase their confidence in buying an EV.