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Crime

Despite recent bail reform flip-flops, Canada is still more dangerous than we’d prefer

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6 minute read

The Audit

 David Clinton

Our Criminal Justice System Is Changing

58 percent of individuals sentenced to community supervision had at least one prior conviction for a violent offence. 68 percent of those given custodial sentences were similarly repeat offenders. In fact, 59 percent of offenders serving custodial sentences had previously been convicted at least 10 times.

Back in 2019, the federal Liberals passed Bill C-75, “An Act to amend the Criminal Code, the Youth Criminal Justice Act and other Acts”. Among other things, the law established a Principle of Restraint that required courts to minimize unnecessary pre-trial detention. This has been characterized as a form of “catch and release” that sacrifices public safety in general, and victims’ rights in particular on the altar of social justice.

I’m no lawyer, but I can’t see how the legislation’s actual language supports that interpretation. In fact, as we can see from the government’s official overview of the law, courts must still give serious consideration to public safety:

The amendments…legislate a “principle of restraint” for police and courts to ensure that release at the earliest opportunity is favoured over detention, that bail conditions are reasonable, relevant to the offence and necessary to ensure public safety, and that sureties are imposed only when less onerous forms of release are inadequate.

So unlike in some U.S. jurisdictions, Canadian courts are still able use their discretion to restrict an accused’s freedom. That’s not to say everyone’s always happy with how Canadian judges choose to use such discretion, but judicial outcomes appear to lie in their hands, rather than with legislation.

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Arguably, C-75 did come with a “soft-on-crime” tone (in particular as the law relates to certain minority communities). But even that was mostly reversed by 2023’s Bill C-48, which introduced reverse onus for repeat offenders and required judges to explicitly consider the safety of the community (whatever that means).

Nevertheless, the system is clearly far from perfect. Besides the occasional high-profile news reports about offenders committing new crimes while awaiting trials for previous offences, the population-level data suggests that our streets are not nearly as safe as they should be.

As far as I can tell, Statistics Canada doesn’t publish numbers on repeat offences committed by offenders free while waiting for trial. But I believe we can get at least part of the way there using two related data points:

  • Conviction rates
  • Repeat offender rates

Between 2019 and 2023, conviction rates across Canada on homicide charges for adults averaged 42 percent, while similar charges against youth offenders resulted in convictions in 65 percent of cases. That means we can safely assume that a significant proportion of accused offenders were, in fact, criminally violent even before reaching trial.

We can use different Statistics Canada data to understand how likely it is that those accused offenders will re-offend while on pre-trial release:

58 percent of individuals sentenced to community supervision (through either conditional sentences or probation) had at least one prior conviction for a violent offence. 68 percent of those given custodial sentences were similarly repeat offenders. In fact, 59 percent of offenders serving custodial sentences had previously been convicted at least 10 times.

Also, in the three years following a term of community supervision, 15.6 percent of offenders were convicted for new violent crimes. For offenders coming out of custodial sentences, that rate was 30.2 percent.

In other words:

  • Many – if not most – people charged with serious crimes turn out to be guilty
  • It’s relatively rare for violent criminals to offend just once.

Together, those two conclusions suggest that public safety would be best served by immediately incarcerating all people charged with violent offences and keeping them “inside” either until they’re declared innocent or their sentences end. That, however, would be impossible. For one thing, we just don’t have space in our prisons to handle the load (or the money to fund it). And it would also often trample on the legitimate civil rights of accused individuals.

This is a serious problem without any obvious pull-the-trigger-and-you’re-done solutions. But here are some possible considerations:

  • Implement improved risk assessment and predictive analytics tools to evaluate the likelihood of re-offending.
  • Improve the reliability of non-custodial measures such as electronic monitoring and house arrest that incorporate real-time tracking and immediate intervention capabilities
  • Improve parole and probation systems to ensure effective monitoring and support for offenders released into the community. (Warning: expensive!)
  • Optimize data analytics to identify trends, allocate resources efficiently, and measure the effectiveness of various interventions.

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2025 Federal Election

RCMP Confirms It Is ‘Looking Into’ Alleged Foreign Threat Following Liberal Candidate Paul Chiang Comments

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Sam Cooper

The confirmation followed a day of escalating pressure on Canadian law enforcement after The Bureau revealed that the UK-based human rights organization Hong Kong Watch sent a formal letter to RCMP Commissioner Mike Duheme, calling for a criminal investigation into Chiang’s reported remarks.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police confirmed late Monday it is actively reviewing the controversy surrounding Liberal MP Paul Chiang’s alleged remarks that appeared to endorse delivering a political rival to a foreign government in exchange for a bounty.

In a statement sent to The Bureau, the RCMP said: “Foreign actor interference, including instances of transnational repression, continues to be a pervasive threat in Canada. The RCMP takes all such reports and allegations seriously and — in close partnership with intelligence, law enforcement and regulatory agencies — dedicates significant resources to combatting and investigating criminal activity related to foreign interference in Canada’s democratic processes.”

“The RCMP is looking into the matter,” the statement continued, “however no specific details can be provided at this time.”

The confirmation followed a day of escalating pressure on Canadian law enforcement after The Bureau revealed that the UK-based human rights organization Hong Kong Watch sent a formal letter to RCMP Commissioner Mike Duheme, calling for a criminal investigation into Chiang’s reported remarks. The comments, made during a January meeting with Chinese-language journalists, suggested that Conservative candidate Joe Tay could be brought to the Chinese Consulate in Toronto to claim a bounty placed on him by the Hong Kong police under Beijing’s National Security Law.

The organization alleged the remarks could constitute “counselling to commit kidnapping” under Canada’s Criminal Code. In their letter, Hong Kong Watch also referenced the Foreign Interference and Security of Information Act, which prohibits attempts to coerce or intimidate individuals for the benefit of a foreign state.

While the RCMP’s statement did not confirm the launch of a formal investigation, it emphasized that if “criminal or illegal activities occurring in Canada [are] found to be backed by a foreign state, it is within the RCMP’s mandate to investigate this activity.”

The RCMP said it does not typically disclose information related to ongoing investigations unless charges are laid. Nor will it confirm which individuals may be under protective watch.

Earlier Monday, Tay confirmed that he contacted the RCMP over concerns for his personal safety even before Chiang’s comments became public. Chiang, a former police officer and Liberal candidate in Markham–Unionville, has apologized for the remarks, calling them a “terrible lapse in judgment.”

Meanwhile, more than 40 Hong Kong diaspora organizations based in Canada and abroad issued a joint statement condemning Chiang’s remarks and calling on Prime Minister Mark Carney to remove him as a candidate. Carney told reporters in Toronto that Chiang still has his “confidence,” and described the incident as a “teachable moment.”

The RCMP said its “overarching priority is the safety and security of the public,” and encouraged anyone who feels threatened online or in person to report such incidents to their local police. In cases of immediate danger, individuals are urged to call 911.

The statement also pointed to the existence of protective mechanisms for election candidates, including through Elections Canada and the federal government.

More to come

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2025 Federal Election

London-Based Human Rights Group Urges RCMP to Investigate Liberal MP for Possible Counselling of Kidnapping

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Hong Kong Watch says MP Paul Chiang’s remarks about delivering rival Joe Tay to the Chinese Consulate may amount to criminal conduct under Canada’s Criminal Code.

On Monday, more than 40 Hong Kong diaspora organizations across Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Germany issued a joint statement condemning Chiang’s remarks and calling for immediate action from Prime Minister Mark Carney.

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