Business
Decarbonization deal opens new chapter in Alberta-Japan relationship
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
Agreement represents a homecoming for JAPEX, which first started work in the Alberta oil sands in 1978
A new agreement that will see Japan Petroleum Exploration Company (JAPEX) invest in decarbonization opportunities in Alberta made history while also being rooted in the past, in the eyes of Gary Mar.
JAPEX is seeking to develop projects in carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen and bioenergy. It’s part of the company’s JAPEX2050 strategy toward carbon neutrality.
“This new endeavour is a great opportunity that demonstrates the world is changing but the relationships endure,” says Mar, the province’s former trade envoy to Asia and the current CEO of the Canada West Foundation.
“Alberta’s very first international office was opened in Tokyo in 1981. And we have built a tremendous soft infrastructure that includes partnerships between a dozen Alberta and Japanese universities.”
For JAPEX, the agreement represents something of a homecoming for the company that first started work in the Alberta oil sands in 1978 and operated one of the first in situ (or drilled) oil projects for nearly two decades before selling its stake in 2018.
“We are now aiming to come back to Alberta and contribute to its decarbonization,” JAPEX president of overseas business Tomomi Yamada said in a statement.
Mar says the memorandum of understanding signed this March between JAPEX and the crown corporation Invest Alberta stems from a strong relationship built over decades.
“You can’t be considered a reliable partner for a new venture if you haven’t been a reliable partner for decades in the past,” says Mar.
“Economies change and world’s needs change but strong relationships are important factor in whom you do business with.”
Alberta’s established CCS infrastructure has already attracted new investment, including Air Products’ $1.6-billion net zero hydrogen complex and Dow Chemicals’ $8.8-billion net zero petrochemical complex.
Mar sees JAPEX’s deal with Invest Alberta opening a whole new market of potential carbon neutral investors in the Pacific Rim.
“When other countries who are partners in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) see JAPEX invest in this decarbonization opportunities and net zero projects in Alberta, it will send a very clear signal to others in the TPP about the potential,” Mar says.
“This deal may come from the decades-long relationship between Alberta and Japan but can also serve as a signpost for decades to come.”
Business
2025 Energy Outlook: Steering Through Recovery and Policy Shifts
From EnergyNow.ca
By Leonard Herchen & Yuchen Wang of GLJ
Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.
The energy markets in 2025 are undergoing transformative structural changes, highlighted by the operational launch of key infrastructure projects such as LNG Canada. This development significantly enhances Canada’s ability to meet rising global LNG demand while alleviating long-standing supply bottlenecks. At the same time, economic recovery across major markets remains uneven, shaping varied trends in energy demand and production activity.
Geopolitical dynamics are poised to redefine the competitive landscape, with the return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introducing potential shifts in trade policies, regulatory frameworks, and relationships with leading energy-producing nations. These changes, coupled with climate policy advancements and an accelerated global transition toward renewable energy, present additional complexities for the oil and gas sector.
Amid these uncertainties, GLJ’s analysts express confidence in the resilience of market fundamentals. Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.
Oil Prices
The oil market in 2025 reflects a delicate balance between supply and demand. During Q4 2024, WTI prices remained stable, fluctuating between $69 and $73 per barrel. This stability highlights the market’s resilience, even in the face of a slower global economic recovery and geopolitical challenges, including weaker demand in regions like China and increased production in North America.
Geopolitical risks remain pivotal, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and sanctions on oil-exporting nations such as Iran and Venezuela threatening supply disruptions. While OPEC+ production cuts continue to provide vital support to prices by tightening global supply, these efforts are partially offset by the rising output of non-OPEC producers, notably in the U.S. and Canada.
The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project is reshaping the pricing dynamics of WCS crude relative to WTI. By increasing export capacity to the West Coast, TMX has created conditions for a sustained narrowing of the WCS-WTI differential, moving away from seasonal fluctuations.
The return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introduces additional challenges. Deregulation policies aimed at boosting domestic oil production may exert downward pressure on prices, while potential trade tariffs and revised international agreements could further complicate global oil flows.
In this dynamic environment, GLJ forecasts WTI to average $71.25 per barrel and Brent $75.25 per barrel in 2025. These projections reflect robust long-term fundamentals, including sustained global demand and ongoing efforts to manage supply dynamics, emphasizing the market’s resilience despite near-term uncertainties.
Natural Gas Prices
In 2025, GLJ’s forecast suggests Henry Hub prices will average $3.20 per MMBtu, supported by steady domestic demand, seasonal winter peaks, and robust LNG exports. U.S. natural gas continues to play a critical role globally, ensuring supply security for key markets in Europe and Asia. The combination of growing industrial use, power generation demand, and stable production levels provides a solid foundation for price stability.
For the Canadian market, GLJ projects AECO natural gas prices to average $2.05 per MMBtu in 2025, representing a recovery from the lows of 2024. This improvement is attributed to easing regional oversupply and stabilizing demand. However, challenges persist, as production continues to outpace infrastructure expansion, prompting a downward adjustment of GLJ’s long-term AECO price forecast by $0.40 per MMBtu. The ramp-up of LNG Canada’s operations is expected to progressively enhance market dynamics and address these challenges.
On a global scale, LNG benchmarks such as NBP, TTF, and JKM have remained relatively stable, supported by high storage levels in Europe and balanced supply-demand conditions. European suppliers have effectively managed storage drawdowns, ensuring sufficient reserves for winter. Nevertheless, these benchmarks remain susceptible to market volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainties.
The CAD/USD Exchange Rate
The Canadian dollar experienced sharp depreciation during the last quarter of 2024, with the CAD/USD exchange rate falling below 0.70 USD. Economists have attributed this decline to the strength of the U.S. economy and its currency, the widening gap between the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s lending rates, as well as tariff threats and a political crisis in Ottawa. These factors have created a favorable environment for the U.S. dollar, putting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.
Looking ahead to 2025, GLJ forecasts a CAD/USD exchange rate averaging 0.705 USD, underpinned by steady oil and gas revenues and enhanced export capacity from major projects such as LNG Canada and the TMX and eventual resolution of internal political issues and return to normalcy in US tariff policy.
Nevertheless, the outlook for the Canadian dollar remains uncertain, shaped by global economic recovery—particularly in China—and U.S. policy decisions under the Trump administration. While near-term challenges persist, Canada’s resource-driven economy and strategic energy export position provide a degree of resilience. In the absence of significant economic or geopolitical disruptions, GLJ projects the CAD/USD exchange rate to stabilize around 0.75 USD over the long term.
In 2025, GLJ expanded its database to include forecasts for Colombia Vasconia and Castilla Crude, as well as lithium prices, reflecting the increasing focus on diverse energy and resource markets. The addition of lithium forecasts aligns with the growing global emphasis on energy transition minerals critical for electric vehicles and battery storage solutions. A separate blog, set to be published next week on the GLJ website, will explore the lithium price forecast in greater depth, offering a detailed analysis and strategic implications for the energy sector.
GLJ’s forecast values for key benchmarks is as follows:
Business
Liberal Leadership Candidates should scrap the carbon tax
From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation
By Kris Sims
As Liberal leadership campaigns are preparing to launch, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation is calling on all Liberal leadership candidates to commit to scrapping the carbon tax, especially with the next carbon tax hike coming on April 1.
“This was Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s costly failure and the carbon tax should go out the door with him,” said Kris Sims, CTF Alberta Director. “Why would the next Liberal leader want to keep this political millstone and continue to punish taxpayers whenever they fill up at the gas station or pay their home-heating bill?”
The new leader of the Liberal Party will face a rapidly approaching deadline for a key carbon tax decision.
Parliament resumes on March 24 and opposition parties have all promised to immediately bring down the government and trigger an election.
The carbon tax is set to increase April 1.
“A carbon tax hike in the first days of an election will absolutely infuriate taxpayers,” said Sims. “And pausing that hike would be a half measure that taxpayers would view as a silly pre-election gimmick.
“The next Liberal leader is facing a stark choice: kick off the election by hiking the carbon tax or scrap the failed scheme completely.”
Prior to the carbon tax hike last spring, a Leger poll showed 69 per cent of Canadians opposed the increase.
After the April increase, the carbon tax will cost 21 cents per litre of gasoline, 25 cents per litre of diesel and 18 cents per cubic metre of natural gas.
At those rates, the carbon tax will cost about $15 extra to fill a minivan, about $27 extra to fill a pickup truck and about $250 extra to fill a big rig truck. The average Canadian household will need to pay about $390 extra on their home heating bills for natural gas.
The Canadian Trucking Alliance reports the carbon tax cost the long haul trucking industry $2 billion in 2024.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer reports the carbon tax will cost Canadian farmers $1 billion over the next five years.
The PBO also confirmed, again, that the carbon tax costs the average Canadian family more money than they get back in rebates.
“The carbon tax makes Canadians pay more for everything, from fuel to food,” said Sims. “Continuing to punish Canadians with the pointless carbon tax would be political suicide so taxpayers expect anyone hoping to become prime minister to immediately commit to scrapping the carbon tax.”
-
Daily Caller21 hours ago
Victor Davis Hanson Condemns California’s DEI Hiring In Fire Departments, ‘Not Muscularity, Not Experience,’ Just DEI
-
National9 hours ago
Court challenge to Trudeau’s suspension of Parliament could result in early election
-
Brownstone Institute2 days ago
Zuckerberg openly admits the US government’s involvement in aggressive violation of the First Amendment
-
John Stossel1 day ago
Why Students Are Miserable: The Coddling of the American Mind
-
Business1 day ago
McDonald’s the latest corporation to retreat from DEI policies, commits instead to ‘Golden Rule’
-
Crime1 day ago
Mystery Terrorist: The Unknown Life and Violent Times of Illegal Border-Crosser Sidi Mohammed Abdallahi
-
Censorship Industrial Complex2 days ago
Trudeau’s ‘Online Harms’ bill likely dead now that Parliament has been suspended
-
Daily Caller21 hours ago
James Woods Smacks Down ‘Blithering Idiot’ Gavin Newsom For Dropping Ball On Forest Management