Fraser Institute
Cost of Ottawa’s gun ban fiasco may reach $6 billion
From the Fraser Institute
By Gary Mauser
According to the government, it has already spent $67.2 million, which includes compensation for 60 federal employees working on the “buyback,” which still doesn’t exist.
Four years ago, the Trudeau government banned “1,500 types” of “assault-style firearms.” It’s time to ask if public safety has improved as promised.
This ban instantly made it a crime for federally-licensed firearms owners to buy, sell, transport, import, export or use hundreds of thousands formerly legal rifles and shotguns. According to the government, the ban targets “assault-style weapons,” which are actually classic semi-automatic rifles and shotguns that have been popular with hunters and sport shooters for more than 100 years. When announcing the ban, the prime minister said the government would confiscate the banned firearms and their legal owners would be “grandfathered” or receive “fair compensation.” That hasn’t happened.
As of October 2024, the government has revealed no plans about how it will collect the newly-banned firearms nor has it made any provisions for compensation in any federal budget since the announcement in 2020. Originally, the government enacted a two-year amnesty period to allow compliance with the ban. This amnesty expired in April 2022 and has been twice extended, first to Oct. 30, 2023, then to Oct. 30, 2025.
Clearly, the ban—which the government calls a “buyback”—has been a gong show from the beginning. Since Trudeau’s announcement four years ago, virtually none of the banned firearms have been surrendered. The Ontario government refuses to divert police resources to cooperate with this federal “buyback” scheme. The RCMP’s labour union has said it’s a “misdirected effort when it comes to public safety.” The Canadian Sporting Arms & Ammunition Association, which represents firearms retailers, said it will have “zero involvement” in helping confiscate these firearms. Even Canada Post wants nothing to do with Trudeau’s “buyback” plan. And again, the government has revealed no plan for compensation—fair or otherwise.
And yet, according to the government, it has already spent $67.2 million, which includes compensation for 60 federal employees working on the “buyback,” which still doesn’t exist.
It remains unclear just how many firearms the 2020 ban includes. The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates range between 150,000 to more than 500,000, with an estimated total value between $47 million and $756 million. These costs only include the value of the confiscated firearms and exclude the administrative costs to collect them and the costs of destroying the collected firearms. The total cost of this ban to taxpayers will be more than $4 billion and possibly more than $6 billion.
Nevertheless, while the ban of remains a confusing mess, after four years we should be able to answer one key question. Has the ban made Canadians safer?
According to Statistics Canada, firearm-related violent crime swelled by 10 per cent from 2020 to 2022 (the latest year of comparable data), from 12,614 incidents to 13,937 incidents. And in “2022, the rate of firearm-related violent crime was 36.7 incidents per 100,000 population, an 8.9% increase from 2021 (33.7 incidents per 100,000 population). This is the highest rate recorded since comparable data were first collected in 2009.”
Nor have firearm homicides decreased since 2020. Perhaps this is because lawfully-held firearms are not the problem. According to StatsCan, “the firearms used in homicides were rarely legal firearms used by their legal owners.” However, crimes committed by organized crime have increased by more than 170 per cent since 2016 (from 4,810 to 13,056 crimes).
Meanwhile, the banned firearms remain locked in the safes of their legal owners who have been vetted by the RCMP and are monitored nightly for any infractions that might endanger public safety.
Indeed, hunters and sport shooters are among the most law-abiding people in Canada. Many Canadian families and Indigenous peoples depend on hunting to provide food for the family dinner table through legal harvesting, with the added benefit of getting out in the wilderness and spending time with family and friends. In 2015, hunting and firearm businesses alone contributed more than $5.9 billion to Canada’s economy and supported more than 45,000 jobs. Hunters are the largest contributors to conservation efforts, contributing hundreds of millions of dollars to secure conservation lands and manage wildlife. The number of licensed firearms owners has increased 17 per cent since 2015 (from 2.026 million to 2.365 million) in 2023.
If policymakers in Ottawa and across the country want to reduce crime and increase public safety, they should enact policies that actually target criminals and use our scarce tax dollars wisely to achieve these goals.
Author:
Fraser Institute
How to talk about housing at the holiday dinner table
From the Fraser Institute
The holidays are a time when families reconnect and share cherished traditions, hearty meals and, occasionally, heated debates. This year, housing policy might be a touchy subject at the holiday dinner table. Homebuilding has not kept pace with housing demand in Canada, causing a sharp decline in affordability. Efforts to accelerate homebuilding are also changing neighbourhoods, sometimes in ways that concern residents. Add in a generational divide in how Canadians have experienced the housing market, and it’s easy to see how friends and family can end up talking past one another on housing issues.
Some disagreement about housing policy is inevitable. But in the spirit of the holidays, we can keep the conversation charitable and productive by grounding it in shared facts, respecting one another’s housing choices, and acknowledging the trade-offs of neighbourhood change.
One way to avoid needless conflict is to start with a shared factual baseline about just how unaffordable housing is today—and how that compares to the past.
The reality is that today’s housing affordability challenges are severe, but not entirely unprecedented. Over the past decade, prices for typical homes have grown faster than ordinary families’ after-tax incomes in nearly every major city. At the pandemic-era peak, the mortgage burden for a typical purchase was the worst since the early 1980s. The housing market has cooled in some cities since then, but not enough to bring affordability back to pre-pandemic levels—when affordability was already strained.
These facts provide some useful context for the holiday dinner table. Today’s aspiring homebuyers aren’t wrong to notice how hard it has become to enter the market, and earlier generations aren’t exaggerating when they recall the shock of double-digit interest rates. Housing affordability crises have happened in the past, but they are not the norm. Living through a housing crisis is not, and should not be, a generational rite of passage. Canada has had long periods of relative housing affordability—that’s what we should all want to work towards.
Even when we agree on the facts about affordability, conflicts can flare up when we judge one another’s housing choices. Casual remarks like “Who would want to live in a shoebox like that?” or “Why would anyone pay that much for so little?” or “Why are you still renting at your age?” may be well-intentioned but they ignore the constraints and trade-offs that shape where and how people live.
A small townhome with no yard might seem unappealing to someone who already owns a single-detached house, but for a first-time homebuyer who prioritizes living closer to work or childcare, it might be the best option they can afford.
At first glance, a new condo or townhome might look “overpriced” compared with nearby older single-family homes that offer more space. But buyers must budget for the full cost of ownership, including heating bills, maintenance and renovations, which can make the financial math on some “overpriced” new homes pencil out.
And renting isn’t necessarily a sign that someone is falling behind. Many renters are intentionally keeping their options open: to pursue job opportunities in other cities, to sort out their romantic lives before committing to homeownership, or to invest their money outside of real estate.
This isn’t just a dinner-table issue. The belief that “no one wants to live like that” leads some to support policies restricting apartments, townhomes or purpose-built rentals on the premise that they’re inherently undesirable. A better approach is to set fair rules and let builders respond to what Canadian families choose for themselves—not what we think they should want.
The hardest housing conversations are about where new homes should go, and who gets a say as neighbourhoods change.
It’s natural for homeowners to feel uneasy about how their neighbourhoods might change as a consequence of housing redevelopment. But aspiring homebuyers are also right to be frustrated when local restrictions prevent the kinds of homes Canadian families want from being built in the places they want to live. The economics is clear—allowing more housing styles to be built in more places means greater options and lower prices for renters and homebuyers.
There’s no simple way to balance the competing views of existing residents and aspiring homebuyers. But the conversation becomes more productive if both sides recognize an unavoidable trade-off—resistance to neighbourhood change reliably restricts housing options and makes housing less affordable, but redevelopment can entail real downsides for existing residents.
Everyone wants better housing outcomes for Canadian families, but we won’t get them by talking past one another. If we bring empathy to the table and stay clear eyed about the trade-offs, we’ll collectively make better housing policy decisions—and have calmer holiday dinners.
Alberta
A Christmas wish list for health-care reform
From the Fraser Institute
By Nadeem Esmail and Mackenzie Moir
It’s an exciting time in Canadian health-care policy. But even the slew of new reforms in Alberta only go part of the way to using all the policy tools employed by high performing universal health-care systems.
For 2026, for the sake of Canadian patients, let’s hope Alberta stays the path on changes to how hospitals are paid and allowing some private purchases of health care, and that other provinces start to catch up.
While Alberta’s new reforms were welcome news this year, it’s clear Canada’s health-care system continued to struggle. Canadians were reminded by our annual comparison of health care systems that they pay for one of the developed world’s most expensive universal health-care systems, yet have some of the fewest physicians and hospital beds, while waiting in some of the longest queues.
And speaking of queues, wait times across Canada for non-emergency care reached the second-highest level ever measured at 28.6 weeks from general practitioner referral to actual treatment. That’s more than triple the wait of the early 1990s despite decades of government promises and spending commitments. Other work found that at least 23,746 patients died while waiting for care, and nearly 1.3 million Canadians left our overcrowded emergency rooms without being treated.
At least one province has shown a genuine willingness to do something about these problems.
The Smith government in Alberta announced early in the year that it would move towards paying hospitals per-patient treated as opposed to a fixed annual budget, a policy approach that Quebec has been working on for years. Albertans will also soon be able purchase, at least in a limited way, some diagnostic and surgical services for themselves, which is again already possible in Quebec. Alberta has also gone a step further by allowing physicians to work in both public and private settings.
While controversial in Canada, these approaches simply mirror what is being done in all of the developed world’s top-performing universal health-care systems. Australia, the Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland all pay their hospitals per patient treated, and allow patients the opportunity to purchase care privately if they wish. They all also have better and faster universally accessible health care than Canada’s provinces provide, while spending a little more (Switzerland) or less (Australia, Germany, the Netherlands) than we do.
While these reforms are clearly a step in the right direction, there’s more to be done.
Even if we include Alberta’s reforms, these countries still do some very important things differently.
Critically, all of these countries expect patients to pay a small amount for their universally accessible services. The reasoning is straightforward: we all spend our own money more carefully than we spend someone else’s, and patients will make more informed decisions about when and where it’s best to access the health-care system when they have to pay a little out of pocket.
The evidence around this policy is clear—with appropriate safeguards to protect the very ill and exemptions for lower-income and other vulnerable populations, the demand for outpatient healthcare services falls, reducing delays and freeing up resources for others.
Charging patients even small amounts for care would of course violate the Canada Health Act, but it would also emulate the approach of 100 per cent of the developed world’s top-performing health-care systems. In this case, violating outdated federal policy means better universal health care for Canadians.
These top-performing countries also see the private sector and innovative entrepreneurs as partners in delivering universal health care. A relationship that is far different from the limited individual contracts some provinces have with private clinics and surgical centres to provide care in Canada. In these other countries, even full-service hospitals are operated by private providers. Importantly, partnering with innovative private providers, even hospitals, to deliver universal health care does not violate the Canada Health Act.
So, while Alberta has made strides this past year moving towards the well-established higher performance policy approach followed elsewhere, the Smith government remains at least a couple steps short of truly adopting a more Australian or European approach for health care. And other provinces have yet to even get to where Alberta will soon be.
Let’s hope in 2026 that Alberta keeps moving towards a truly world class universal health-care experience for patients, and that the other provinces catch up.
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