From Resource Works 

In 2024, the EU shifted towards a cautious, fossil fuel-inclusive energy strategy amid rising costs and public unrest

In 2024, the European Union’s shift back towards fossil fuels began to solidify in earnest.

Over the past few years, Giorgia Meloni has become the Prime Minister of Italy, Geert Wilders’ party is the senior partner in the governing coalition of the Netherlands, and Friedrich Merz is poised to ascend to the leadership of Germany’s government. All three figures are on the political right and are far more nuanced or sceptical of renewable energy, depending on whom you speak to.

The EU’s once ironclad commitment to rapidly replacing fossil fuels with renewables has cracked and given way to a more cautious and inclusive strategy to keep homes heated and industry powered. There is also growing resistance to the sacrifices being asked of ordinary EU citizens to meet the demands of aggressive green policies, which helped fuel their rise—no pun intended.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy reiterated her government’s ambition for Italy to become a hub of natural gas in Europe. Meloni’s government has signed a important deal with Libya and reaffirmed Italy’s partnership with Algeria across the Mediterranean to grow imports of natural gas to Italy.

Meloni herself has labelled EU climate policies as “disastrous” and has pledged to revise them, while her government has prioritized energy security and economic pragmatism. Her push to boost Mediterranean gas development is in large part a reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which led to severe restrictions on imports of Russian gas.

While many critics charge Meloni’s approach to fossil fuels as short-sighted, her approach resonates with many Italians and other Europeans who will no longer tolerate economic disruption due to energy shortages.

In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) has been the senior partner in the governing coalition since October 2023 and is far more hawkishly contrarian when it comes to EU climate policies. Wilders has dismissed proposed new investments in offshore wind turbines, solar farms, and other measures as “pointless climate hobbies.”

The PVV’s manifesto proposes abolishing Dutch climate laws, removing the country from the Paris Agreement, and growing fossil fuel extraction in the North Sea. Wilders is likely to face resistance from his more moderate coalition partners, but his electoral success is another indicator that green policies are no longer deal-breakers for European voters.

To the east, in Germany, Friedrich Merz and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are heavily favoured to return to power in the 2025 election after just four years out of government.

Merz opposes the EU’s mandated ban on combustion engines by 2035 and is open to reviving nuclear energy, which was controversially phased out under the current Social Democratic Party-led government after pressure from the Green Party, a junior coalition partner. As a junior partner in the current governing coalition, the Greens are unlikely to join a CDU-led government if the party secures a plurality in the upcoming election, as they have never formed a coalition with the CDU before.

Under Merz, the CDU advocates for “technological openness,” which opens the door to a host of alternatives to heavy-handed energy phaseouts. Like Meloni in Italy, Merz remains committed to EU climate goals, but the CDU’s pro-business outlook could very well slow the pace of renewable energy adoption in favour of economic and industrial goals.

Germany has a special role in the EU as the largest economy and has acted as its unofficial leader for decades. The decisions made by a likely Merz-led CDU government will have a huge impact across the bloc, even if his approach may be tempered by his coalition partners.

The approach of Merz, Meloni, and Wilders reflects a broad reorientation in Europe due to rising energy costs, stagnating economies, geopolitical uncertainty, and public backlash.

This shift is not indicative of climate denial or an abandonment of the EU’s commitment to climate neutrality by 2050, but the pathway is far murkier. Global energy leaders should take note and ponder what role they can play with the EU’s more inclusive approach to energy security.

From EnergyNow.ca

By Leonard Herchen & Yuchen Wang of GLJ

Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.

The energy markets in 2025 are undergoing transformative structural changes, highlighted by the operational launch of key infrastructure projects such as LNG Canada. This development significantly enhances Canada’s ability to meet rising global LNG demand while alleviating long-standing supply bottlenecks. At the same time, economic recovery across major markets remains uneven, shaping varied trends in energy demand and production activity.

Geopolitical dynamics are poised to redefine the competitive landscape, with the return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introducing potential shifts in trade policies, regulatory frameworks, and relationships with leading energy-producing nations. These changes, coupled with climate policy advancements and an accelerated global transition toward renewable energy, present additional complexities for the oil and gas sector.

Amid these uncertainties, GLJ’s analysts express confidence in the resilience of market fundamentals. Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.

Oil Prices

The oil market in 2025 reflects a delicate balance between supply and demand. During Q4 2024, WTI prices remained stable, fluctuating between $69 and $73 per barrel. This stability highlights the market’s resilience, even in the face of a slower global economic recovery and geopolitical challenges, including weaker demand in regions like China and increased production in North America.

Geopolitical risks remain pivotal, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and sanctions on oil-exporting nations such as Iran and Venezuela threatening supply disruptions. While OPEC+ production cuts continue to provide vital support to prices by tightening global supply, these efforts are partially offset by the rising output of non-OPEC producers, notably in the U.S. and Canada.

The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project is reshaping the pricing dynamics of WCS crude relative to WTI. By increasing export capacity to the West Coast, TMX has created conditions for a sustained narrowing of the WCS-WTI differential, moving away from seasonal fluctuations.

The return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introduces additional challenges. Deregulation policies aimed at boosting domestic oil production may exert downward pressure on prices, while potential trade tariffs and revised international agreements could further complicate global oil flows.

In this dynamic environment, GLJ forecasts WTI to average $71.25 per barrel and Brent $75.25 per barrel in 2025. These projections reflect robust long-term fundamentals, including sustained global demand and ongoing efforts to manage supply dynamics, emphasizing the market’s resilience despite near-term uncertainties.

Natural Gas Prices

In 2025, GLJ’s forecast suggests Henry Hub prices will average $3.20 per MMBtu, supported by steady domestic demand, seasonal winter peaks, and robust LNG exports. U.S. natural gas continues to play a critical role globally, ensuring supply security for key markets in Europe and Asia. The combination of growing industrial use, power generation demand, and stable production levels provides a solid foundation for price stability.

For the Canadian market, GLJ projects AECO natural gas prices to average $2.05 per MMBtu in 2025, representing a recovery from the lows of 2024. This improvement is attributed to easing regional oversupply and stabilizing demand. However, challenges persist, as production continues to outpace infrastructure expansion, prompting a downward adjustment of GLJ’s long-term AECO price forecast by $0.40 per MMBtu. The ramp-up of LNG Canada’s operations is expected to progressively enhance market dynamics and address these challenges.

On a global scale, LNG benchmarks such as NBP, TTF, and JKM have remained relatively stable, supported by high storage levels in Europe and balanced supply-demand conditions. European suppliers have effectively managed storage drawdowns, ensuring sufficient reserves for winter. Nevertheless, these benchmarks remain susceptible to market volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainties.

The CAD/USD Exchange Rate

The Canadian dollar experienced sharp depreciation during the last quarter of 2024, with the CAD/USD exchange rate falling below 0.70 USD. Economists have attributed this decline to the strength of the U.S. economy and its currency, the widening gap between the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s lending rates, as well as tariff threats and a political crisis in Ottawa. These factors have created a favorable environment for the U.S. dollar, putting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

Looking ahead to 2025, GLJ forecasts a CAD/USD exchange rate averaging 0.705 USD, underpinned by steady oil and gas revenues and enhanced export capacity from major projects such as LNG Canada and the TMX and eventual resolution of internal political issues and return to normalcy in US tariff policy.

Nevertheless, the outlook for the Canadian dollar remains uncertain, shaped by global economic recovery—particularly in China—and U.S. policy decisions under the Trump administration. While near-term challenges persist, Canada’s resource-driven economy and strategic energy export position provide a degree of resilience. In the absence of significant economic or geopolitical disruptions, GLJ projects the CAD/USD exchange rate to stabilize around 0.75 USD over the long term.

In 2025, GLJ expanded its database to include forecasts for Colombia Vasconia and Castilla Crude, as well as lithium prices, reflecting the increasing focus on diverse energy and resource markets. The addition of lithium forecasts aligns with the growing global emphasis on energy transition minerals critical for electric vehicles and battery storage solutions. A separate blog, set to be published next week on the GLJ website, will explore the lithium price forecast in greater depth, offering a detailed analysis and strategic implications for the energy sector.

GLJ’s forecast values for key benchmarks is as follows: