Economy
Climate researchers show we’re actually “safer than ever from climate” catastrophes
The climate safety denial movement
I and others have documented that we’re safer than ever from climate. Catastrophists can’t refute us, so they’re now saying that disaster deaths don’t matter!
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For decades climate catastrophists have portrayed climate disasters as getting deadlier and deadlier.
Now that I and others have documented that we’re safer than ever from climate, catastrophists are saying that disaster deaths don’t matter!
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- Reuters says “Drop in climate-related disaster deaths not evidence against climate emergency.”
But a drop in deaths from something—here, a 98% drop—is obvious evidence against it being an emergency.
Would Reuters say: “98% drop in flu deaths not evidence against flu emergency”?¹
- Why is Reuters, along with The New York Times, PolitiFact, and USA Today, claiming that a 98% drop in climate disaster deaths doesn’t contradict their climate emergency narrative? Because it obviously does, and they can only save their narrative by intimidating us into denying the obvious.²
- The central narrative of climate catastrophists is that fossil fuels and their CO2 emissions are killing more and more people via climate disasters.
This narrative has always had a fatal weakness: it totally contradicts the data, which show plummeting climate disaster deaths.³
- Why are climate disaster deaths plummeting as fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions rise?
Because the enormous ability uniquely cost-effective and scalable fossil fuel energy gives us to master climate danger far outweighs any new climate challenges from CO2 emissions.
- An example of fossil-fueled climate mastery overwhelming CO2 impacts is drought.
Any contribution of rising CO2 to drought has been overwhelmed by fossil-fueled irrigation and crop transport, which have helped reduce drought deaths by over 100 times over 100 years as CO2 levels have risen.⁴
- Over the last decade, I and a number of others, including Bjorn Lomborg and Michael Shellenberger, have challenged catastrophism by pointing to declining climate disaster deaths.
Catastrophists couldn’t refute our argument. So instead they pretended it didn’t exist.
Until last year.⁵
- In 2023, climate catastrophists finally felt compelled to address the fact that climate disaster deaths have plummeted (driven by fossil-fueled climate mastery).
Because of honesty? No—because Presidential candidates started bringing it up and persuading people with it.
- Here is Vivek Ramaswamy during his Presidential campaign referring to a 98% decline in climate disaster deaths—and, crucially, giving fossil fuel energy credit.
- Here is Ron DeSantis during his Presidential campaign referring to a 98% decline in climate disaster deaths—and, crucially, giving fossil fuel energy credit.
- The 98% decline in climate disaster deaths, driven by fossil fuels, is a blockbuster fact: it shows that we are experiencing not fossil-fueled climate emergency but fossil-fueled climate safety.
But instead of being happy, catastrophists engage in climate safety denial.
- Here are 3 recent instances of climate safety denial—from Reuters, PolitiFact, and USA Today. All have long portrayed climate deaths as a fast-increasing problem. But now they claim deaths don’t matter.
https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/drop-climate-related- disaster-deaths-not-evidence- against-climate-emergency- 2023-09-19/ - Climate safety denial utilizes 5 main myths to evade the decline in disaster deaths:
1. Fossil fuels don’t deserve credit
2. Weather forecasting deserves the credit
3. 100 years is a misleading period
4. Damages are drastically increasing
5. There’s a major increase in reported disasters - Myth 1: Fossil fuels don’t deserve much credit for plummeting climate disaster deaths; it’s “resilience.”
Truth: Uniquely cost-effective and scalable fossil fuel energy makes us resilient through plentiful infrastructure-building, heating and cooling, irrigation, transportation, etc.⁶
- Myth 2: Storm warning systems deserve the credit for plummeting climate disaster deaths.
Truth: Drought, not storm, deaths are the leading source of reduced climate deaths. And fossil fuels power storm warning and evacuation systems (and more resilient infrastructure).⁷
- Myth 3: 100 years is a misleading period to measure plummeting climate disaster deaths.
Truth: 100 years is a standard, very meaningful period to look at. While we have data going back an additional two decades, those tend to underreport due to less global communication.⁸
- Contrary to the claim that starting analysis of climate disaster deaths in the 1920s overestimates the decline, it actually likely underestimates the decline due to insufficient past reporting; data before WWII extremely likely underreport deaths compared to data after 2000.
- Myth 4: There is an alarming increase in reported disasters, revealing an underlying climate emergency.
Truth: The increase in reported disasters over time is due overwhelmingly to increased global communication. Changes in fundamentals, such as storms, are extremely modest.⁹
- The claim that more reported disasters show an increasingly dangerous climate is absurd in light of the fact that underlying data show massive increases in reporting before significant human climate impacts and the reporting trend also massively goes up for non-climate causes!
- Other biases might inflate the number of reported disasters. E.g., governments of poor countries have an incentive to declare more disasters with increasing international relief.¹⁰
- Using obviously problematic disaster frequency reporting instead of direct climatological evidence to try and show increasing climate danger is a revealing choice by catastrophists. They are making it because the climate change we’ve experienced has been very modest—and masterable.
Do Not Declare a “Climate Emergency”
·AUGUST 17, 2023Read full story - An example of unalarming climate fundamentals: neither the frequency nor the energy in global hurricanes has changed significantly relative to the noisy average. There is also little evidence for more landfalling hurricanes.¹¹
- The catastrophist attempt to undermine the 98% decrease in disaster deaths by pointing to the increased reporting of disasters is actually self-defeating.
If disaster deaths are plummeting despite incomplete past reporting, that means they’ve declined by even more than 98%.
- Myth 5: Climate damages are drastically increasing, revealing an underlying climate emergency.
Truth: Even though there are many incentives for climate damages to go up—preferences for riskier areas, government bailouts—GDP-adjusted damages are flat.¹²
- We often hear that “billion-dollar disasters” have increased significantly. But this is a bogus metric. Of course, as GDP grows we’ll have more billion-dollar disasters because there is more wealth for disasters to strike. But when we adjust for GDP there’s no increase in damage.¹³
- A Reuters “fact check” alarmingly claims a 151% growth in disaster damages from a period starting in 1978 to a period ending in 2017.
But they evade that the global economy grew by over 200% during that period!
(And they evade that disaster and damage reporting increased.)¹⁴
- The stupidest climate safety denial myth (used by The New York Times): 2 million people died from extreme weather in the last 50 years; that’s obviously an emergency.
Truth: 2 million in 50 years is a rate of 40,000 per year—far, far less than 100 years ago, thus confirming today’s climate safety.¹⁵
- The last-gasp climate safety denial myth: Okay, we’re safer than ever from climate disasters, and it is driven by cheap energy from fossil fuels, but we can easily replace fossil fuels with solar and wind.
Truth: For the foreseeable future there is no cheap global energy without fossil fuels.
The ultimate debunking of “solar and wind are cheaper than fossil fuels.”
·JULY 19, 2023Read full story - Observe that all these seemingly scientific outlets, such as The New York Times, Reuters, and PolitiFact are totally unable to refute the death-blow to their “climate emergency” narrative that is the drastic decline in climate disaster deaths.
Science requires that they admit defeat.
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UC San Diego – The Keeling Curve
For every million people on earth, annual deaths from climate-related causes (extreme temperature, drought, flood, storms, wildfires) declined 98%–from an average of 247 per year during the 1920s to 2.5 per year during the 2010s.
Data on disaster deaths come from EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, Brussels, Belgium – www.emdat.be (D. Guha-Sapir).
Population estimates for the 1920s from the Maddison Database 2010, the Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Faculty of Economics and Business at University of Groningen. For years not shown, population is assumed to have grown at a steady rate.
Population estimates for the 2010s come from World Bank Data
Business
‘TERMINATED’: Trump Ends Trade Talks With Canada Over Premier Ford’s Ronald Reagan Ad Against Tariffs
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
President Donald Trump announced late Thursday that trade negotiations with Canada “ARE HEREBY TERMINATED” after what he called “egregious behavior” tied to an Ontario TV ad that used former President Ronald Reagan’s voice to criticize tariffs.
The ad at the center of the feud was funded by Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government as part of a multimillion-dollar campaign running on major U.S. networks. The spot features Reagan warning that tariffs may appear patriotic but ultimately “hurt every American worker and consumer.”
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“They only did this to interfere with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, and other courts. TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform late Thursday. “Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.”
Ford first posted the ad online on Oct. 16, writing in a caption, “Using every tool we have, we’ll never stop making the case against American tariffs on Canada. The way to prosperity is by working together.”
The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute criticized the ad Thursday evening, saying it “misrepresents” Reagan’s 1987 radio address on free and fair trade. The foundation said Ontario did not request permission to use or alter the recording and that it is reviewing its legal options.
The president posted early Friday that Canada “cheated and got caught,” adding that Reagan actually “loved tariffs for our country.”
The ad splices audio from Reagan’s original remarks but includes his authentic statement: “When someone says, ‘let’s impose tariffs on foreign imports’, it looks like they’re doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes, for a short while it works, but only for a short time.”
Reagan also noted at the end of his remarks that, in “certain select cases,” he had taken steps to stop unfair trade practices against American products and added that the president’s “options” in trade matters should not be restricted, which the ad did not include.
Since returning to the White House, Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian aluminum, steel, automobiles and lumber, arguing they are vital to protecting U.S. manufacturing and national security.
The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in November over whether the administration overstepped its authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose reciprocal tariffs on dozens of nations, including Canada. Tariffs on commodities such as steel, aluminum and copper were implemented under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and are not currently being challenged, as they align with longstanding precedent established by prior administrations.
Thursday’s move marks the second time this year Trump has canceled trade talks with Ottawa. In June, he briefly halted discussions after Canada imposed a digital services tax on American tech firms, though the Canadian government repealed the measure two days later.
Elbows Up Stengthens U.S. Tariff Resolve at Canada’s Expense
The disastrously misguided “Elbows Up” campaign championed by the Carney government rooted in the fantasy that a smug, arrogant Liberal elite wields leverage over the largest economy in human history, has suffered yet another devastating blow. The latest fallout: U.S.-based truck manufacturer Paccar Inc., maker of iconic heavyweights such as Kenworth and Peterbilt, is slashing Canadian production and laying off hundreds of workers in anticipation of a 25-per-cent U.S. import tariff set to take effect next month.
Employees at Paccar’s Sainte-Thérèse, Quebec plant were informed Wednesday that the company will move production of trucks destined for the U.S. market back to its American facilities. According to Daniel Cloutier, Quebec director for Unifor, approximately 300 jobs will be eliminated, leaving roughly 500 workers at the plant.
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“They will continue building trucks for the Canadian market,” Cloutier said, noting that domestic demand represents a much smaller portion of output. At its peak, the plant produced 96 trucks per day; production will now drop to just 18 units daily. That is an 81% drop.
Paccar declined to confirm the restructuring or provide additional details. However, in a financial earnings call a day earlier, CEO Preston Feight described the U.S. tariff policy as advantageous for the company. “I think it helps Paccar significantly,” Feight said. “It gives us a competitive leg up from where we’ve been.”
U.S. Tariffs Driving Industry Shift
U.S. President Donald Trump has confirmed that all medium and heavy-duty trucks imported into the United States will face a 25-per-cent tariff beginning Nov. 1, along with an additional 10-per-cent duty on buses. The tariffs are being imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which targets imports deemed to pose a national security risk.
These measures follow earlier tariffs that have already struck Canadian steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, and lumber, forcing companies to shelve investments and reconsider their North American strategies.
Broader Auto Sector Retrenchment
Other automakers are also pulling back production in Canada. General Motors announced Tuesday it is ending production of the Chevrolet BrightDrop electric delivery van in Ingersoll, Ontario, costing over 1,100 workers their jobs. Stellantis recently confirmed plans to shift production of the Jeep Compass from Brampton, Ontario, to Belvidere, Illinois, as part of a strategy to increase U.S. output by 50 per cent by 2029.
Quebec Plant at Risk
The Sainte-Thérèse plant, which manufactures Class 5, 6 and 7 Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks, has already endured two rounds of layoffs over the past year as uncertainty around tariffs weakened demand. At peak production, the facility employed over 1,400 people.
Cloutier said the union is pressing both the Quebec and federal governments to prioritize the purchase of domestically made vehicles to sustain production levels. Without such measures, he warned, the plant could be forced to close due to high fixed costs and insufficient volume. “Let’s not pretend global trade hasn’t changed with this President,” Cloutier said. “We need to stop twiddling our thumbs.”
Bus Manufacturers Also Exposed
Quebec is also home to two major bus manufacturers, Prevost and Nova Bus, both owned by Volvo Group that could face similar challenges due to new tariffs on buses entering the U.S. Executives at both companies say they are still assessing the impact of the policy shift.
What can we learn from all this?
Perhaps our deep reliance on American innovation has consequences we have been unwilling to confront. The warning signs were evident well before Donald Trump’s election. He was explicit that tariffs would be used as a strategic tool to financially incentivize American companies to return to the United States. This was not hidden, it was a core pillar of his economic agenda.
I have said repeatedly on the Marc Patrone Show on Sauga 960 that my frustration is not with America’s strategy, but with Canada’s political class. Their smug arrogance lies in the belief that, as great as Canada can be, we could somehow dominate the greatest economy in the history of civilization rather than work with it. The Trump administration never wanted Canada to become the 51st state; they want our valuable resources and are willing to pay fair value for them, and they expect Canada to finally take our internal security threats seriously; something I have personally presented on in the United States. Yet instead of leveraging our strategic position, Canada’s leadership chose performative resistance over pragmatic partnership.
The most telling moment came when President Trump reportedly asked Justin Trudeau what would happen if the United States imposed a 25-per-cent tariff on all Canadian goods. Trudeau’s response, “It would destroy Canada” was an example of catastrophic stupidity. It handed Trump the gun he could use to execute Canada economically and perhaps cost Canada its sovereignty over the long term.
Reminiscent of the scene from The Hunt for Red October, when Captain Tupolev, in an act of smug Laurentian style arrogance, fires a torpedo at Ramius only for it to circle back and destroy his own submarine, a catastrophic miscalculation born of arrogance and a complete misunderstanding of the enemy’s capabilities. A catastrophic miscalculation that mirrors Elbows Up stupidity.
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