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Canadians in every province will pay more than $1,750 per person in 2023-24 on government interest costs amounting to $81.8 billion

Published

10 months ago

4 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

Canadians in every province will pay more than $1,750 per person in 2023/24 on government interest costs, finds a new study published by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“Interest must be paid on government debt, and the more money governments spend on interest payments the less money is available for the programs and services that matter to Canadians,” said Jake Fuss, director of fiscal studies at the Fraser Institute and author of Federal and Provincial Debt Interest Costs for Canadians, 2024 edition.

The study finds that taxpayers across Canada will pay a total of $81.8 billion on interest payments for the federal and provincial debts this year alone. The federal government will spend $46.5 billion on debt servicing charges in 2023/24, which is more than the government expects to spend on childcare benefits ($31.2 billion) and almost as much as the Canada Health Transfer ($49.4 billion).

Nationally, Newfoundland and Labrador’s combined federal and provincial interest costs is the highest in the country at $3,225 per person. Manitoba is the next highest at $2,728 per person.

Meanwhile, total expenditures on interest costs for Albertans ($8.6 billion) and Ontarians ($31.5 billion) are nearly equivalent to expected spending on K-12 education in their respective provinces this year.

“Even before the COVID-19 pandemic and recession, governments across Canada and in Ottawa were racking up large debts, and this debt imposes real costs on Canadian taxpayers in the form of interest payments,” said Fuss. “Interest payments across the country are substantial, and that takes money away from other important priorities.”

  • In recent years, deficit spending and growing government debt have become a trend for many Canadian governments. Like households, governments are required to pay interest on their debt.
  • In aggregate, the provinces and federal government are expected to spend $81.8 billion on interest payments in 2023/24.
  • Residents in Newfoundland & Labrador face by far the highest combined federal-provincial interest payments per person ($3,225). Manitoba is the next highest at $2,728 per person.
  • The federal government will spend $46.5 billion on debt servicing charges in 2023/24, which is nearly what the government expects to spend on the Canada Health Transfer ($49.4 billion), and significantly more than it expects to spend on childcare benefits ($31.2 billion).
  • Combined federal-provincial interest costs in Ontario ($31.5 billion), Quebec ($20.3 billion), and Alberta ($8.6 billion) are nearly as much, or more than, what these provinces will spend on K-12 education in 2023/24.
  • Meanwhile, combined federal-provincial interest costs for British Columbians ($9.6 billion) are higher than what the province expects to spend on its social services this year.

Authors:

Jake Fuss
Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute
Grady Munro
Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

More from this study

Adobe PDF Read the Full Report

 

The Fraser Institute is an independent Canadian public policy research and educational organization with offices in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal and ties to a global network of think-tanks in 87 countries. Its mission is to improve the quality of life for Canadians, their families and future generations by studying, measuring and broadly communicating the effects of government policies, entrepreneurship and choice on their well-being. To protect the Institute’s independence, it does not accept grants from governments or contracts for research. Visit www.fraserinstitute.org

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Alberta fiscal update: second quarter is outstanding, challenges ahead

Published on November 21, 2024

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Alberta maintains a balanced budget while ensuring pressures from population growth are being addressed.

Alberta faces rising risks, including ongoing resource volatility, geopolitical instability and rising pressures at home. With more than 450,000 people moving to Alberta in the last three years, the province has allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to address these pressures and ensure Albertans continue to be supported. Alberta’s government is determined to make every dollar go further with targeted and responsible spending on the priorities of Albertans.

The province is forecasting a $4.6 billion surplus at the end of 2024-25, up from the $2.9 billion first quarter forecast and $355 million from budget, due mainly to higher revenue from personal income taxes and non-renewable resources.

Given the current significant uncertainty in global geopolitics and energy markets, Alberta’s government must continue to make prudent choices to meet its responsibilities, including ongoing bargaining for thousands of public sector workers, fast-tracking school construction, cutting personal income taxes and ensuring Alberta’s surging population has access to high-quality health care, education and other public services.

“These are challenging times, but I believe Alberta is up to the challenge. By being intentional with every dollar, we can boost our prosperity and quality of life now and in the future.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Midway through 2024-25, the province has stepped up to boost support to Albertans this fiscal year through key investments, including:

  • $716 million to Health for physician compensation incentives and to help Alberta Health Services provide services to a growing and aging population.
  • $125 million to address enrollment growth pressures in Alberta schools.
  • $847 million for disaster and emergency assistance, including:
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    • $12 million to match donations to the Canadian Red Cross
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  • $240 million more for Seniors, Community and Social Services to support social support programs.

Looking forward, the province has adjusted its forecast for the price of oil to US$74 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate. It expects to earn more for its crude oil, with a narrowing of the light-heavy differential around US$14 per barrel, higher demand for heavier crude grades and a growing export capacity through the Trans Mountain pipeline. Despite these changes, Alberta still risks running a deficit in the coming fiscal year should oil prices continue to drop below $70 per barrel.

After a 4.4 per cent surge in the 2024 census year, Alberta’s population growth is expected to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2025, lower than the first quarter forecast of 3.2 per cent growth because of reduced immigration and non-permanent residents targets by the federal government.

Revenue

Revenue for 2024-25 is forecast at $77.9 billion, an increase of $4.4 billion from Budget 2024, including:

  • $16.6 billion forecast from personal income taxes, up from $15.6 billion at budget.
  • $20.3 billion forecast from non-renewable resource revenue, up from $17.3 billion at budget.

Expense

Expense for 2024-25 is forecast at $73.3 billion, an increase of $143 million from Budget 2024.

Surplus cash

After calculations and adjustments, $2.9 billion in surplus cash is forecast.

  • $1.4 billion or half will pay debt coming due.
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Contingency

Of the $2 billion contingency included in Budget 2024, a preliminary allocation of $1.7 billion is forecast.

Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund

The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund grew in the second quarter to a market value of $24.3 billion as of Sept. 30, 2024, up from $23.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.

  • The fund earned a 3.7 per cent return from July to September with a net investment income of $616 million, up from the 2.1 per cent return during the first quarter.

Debt

Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast at $84 billion as of March 31, 2025, $3.8 billion less than estimated in the budget because the higher surplus has lowered borrowing requirements.

  • Debt servicing costs are forecast at $3.2 billion, down $216 million from budget.

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Trump’s government efficiency department plans to cut $500 Billion in unauthorized expenditures, including funding for Planned Parenthood

Published on November 21, 2024

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By Emily Mangiaracina

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy shared their plans to ‘take aim’ at ‘500 billion plus’ in federal expenses, including ‘nearly $300 million’ to ‘progressive groups like Planned Parenthood.’

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are planning to ax taxpayer funding for Planned Parenthood as part of their forthcoming work for the next Trump administration, they revealed in a Wednesday op-ed in The Wall Street Journal. 

The businessmen have been appointed by President Donald Trump to lead a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which will work from outside the official government structure to cut wasteful government spending and excess regulations, as well as “restructure federal agencies,” as Trump announced last week on Truth Social.

Musk and Ramaswamy shared Wednesday that as part of their work at DOGE to downsize government spending, they will be “taking aim at the $500 billion plus in annual federal expenditures that are unauthorized by Congress or being used in ways that Congress never intended,” thereby “delivering cost savings for taxpayers.”

They specifically called out Planned Parenthood as one institution that will lose taxpayer funding once DOGE kicks into gear. In their op-ed, the duo said the federal expenditures they plan on cutting includes the “nearly $300 million” dedicated “to progressive groups like Planned Parenthood.”

Musk and Ramaswamy also reportedly will take aim at the “$535 million a year to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and $1.5 billion for grants to international organizations,” according to Catholic Vote, although they have not shared all of the federal spending they plan to cut or reduce.

“With a decisive electoral mandate and a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court, DOGE has a historic opportunity for structural reductions in the federal government,” the business duo wrote. “We are prepared for the onslaught from entrenched interests in Washington. We expect to prevail.”

Mogul and X owner Musk, who was outspoken before his DOGE appointment about the big problem of waste, noted last week that if the government is not made efficient, the country will go “bankrupt.”

He reposted a clip from a recent talk he gave in which he explained that not only is our defense budget “pretty gigantic” — a trillion dollars —but the interest the U.S. now owes on its debt is higher than this.

“This is not sustainable. That’s why we need the Department of Government Efficiency,” Musk said.

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