Business
Canada’s risky and misguided bet on EV battery manufacturing
From the Macdonald Laurier Institute
By Tom McCaffrey and Denaige McDonnell for Inside Policy
By investing $52.5 billion in a handful of foreign-controlled companies, the government has failed to create a sustainable, long-term economic advantage. Instead of fostering innovation and building a robust, homegrown supply chain, Canada has committed itself to an outdated model of industrial policy that relies on foreign entities and low-value manufacturing jobs.
Two years ago, Canada’s minister of natural resources urged Canadians “to fully seize” the economic opportunity presented by the country’s abundant critical minerals.
“We must ensure that value is added to the entire supply chain, including exploration, extraction, intermediate processing, advanced manufacturing, and recycling,” Jonathan Wilkinson stated. “We must create the necessary conditions for Canadian companies to grow, scale-up, and expand globally in markets that depend on critical minerals.”
Two years later, the Canadian government has gone all-in with a $52.5 billion dollar bet on EV battery manufacturing in Ontario and Quebec. The decision goes against the recommendations of industry specialists and the government’s own departments responsible for strategic development who advised officials to go slow, steady, and think full supply chain development when targeting incentives.
Why didn’t the politicians listen?
Ottawa’s risky bet on EV battery manufacturing
By 2033, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) estimates three recent Canadian Government EV battery manufacturing subsidies will cost the country a total $37.7 billion dollars. The Northvolt, Volkswagen, Stellantis-LGES manufacturing facilities are estimated to take 15 years to pay back Canadian taxpayers.
The repayment estimate is 6 years longer than the government originally estimated because the PBO has now used the manufacturers’ production rate estimations, a more conservative number, than the originally used full production rates. In total, the national investment across the full value chain of EV battery manufacturing equates to $52.5 billion into just 13 companies.
The Canadian government is betting big on EVs, but not by investing in innovation, intellectual property, or Canadian technology. It is betting the farm on foreign entities delivering 8,500 manufacturing jobs. Capital investment for the purpose of growth in labour productivity isn’t a new strategy and it can be effective, but at $4 million per job the likelihood of return on investment is low.
Could the Bet Pay Off?
The global EV battery market is expected to surge over the next 10 years from US$132.6 billion in 2023 to US$508.8 by 2033. So far, growth has been slower than expected, and some major players, like Tesla, will be challenged to meet their sales volumes from last year according to analysts – but basing an opinion on a single year of car sales is not wise.
The truth is car manufacturing in Canada is important to our GDP ($14.6 billion) and to jobs (125,000). It is also true that Canada has lost 50 per cent of its market share in manufacturing of cars ($8 billion in 2000 to $4 billion in 2022), but it has maintained it market share in motor vehicle parts ($9 billion).
Canada appears to be betting that it can maintain it’s position in the car automotive industry rather than cementing its place in the battery metals and manufacturing value chain. But is this wager wise?
Sustainable policy development
Governments can encourage economic and industrial development in several ways. Policy-makers can set efficient regulations and approval mechanisms; create frameworks that build a bridge between government and the private sector; support the development of skilled labour and innovation ecosystems; enable direct collaboration and procurement mechanisms between industry, academia, innovation ecosystems, and government; and share a clear vision and pathway for industrial growth.
Governments can also use subsidies and tax credits to create market share, but there is growing concern that using these methods to create or protect markets will cause more harm than opportunity in developing countries. These kinds of investments risk triggering international protectionism and geopolitical trade-offs as nations turn inward rather than collaborating for development.
What’s needed is a sustainable policy approach – one that influences and benefits the largest subset of market outcomes, including start-up development, foreign direct investment, technology development, technology adoption, investment attraction, the creation of circular economy value chains, and more.
Ottawa’s misguided approach to economic investment
In the EV world, a fully integrated supply chain that includes mining, chemical processing, battery production, and recycling is critical. The battery value chain road map published by Innovation, Science and Economic Development (ISED) Canada, and the Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy published by Natural Resources Canada (NRC) both call for government to develop the full supply chain.
In 2021, a standing committee advised how best to develop the full supply chain. That same year Clean Energy Canada wrote a report on how Canada could build the domestic battery industry across the country, and in 2022 another full suite of associations including the Battery Metals Association, Energy Futures Lab, Transition Accelerator, and Accelerate ZEV developed a roadmap to develop Canada’s battery value chain.
The Canadian industrial policies being used to create the EV supply chain are a mix of production subsidies, investment tax credits, foregone corporate income tax revenue, construction capital expenses, and other monetary supports. Though large, the $52.5 billion investment ignores key aspects of the upstream supply chain (mining, refining, etc.) that would allow us to reap full value from EV battery production. Worse, it comes at a time when automakers are pulling back from EV investments due to lower than expected demands, making the investment increasingly risky given changing market conditions.
By flying in the face of the very industries it supports and specialists it employs, it raises the question: why is Canadian government failing to follow its own strategy? Why choose to support an undeveloped strategy that banks on foreign investment and manufacturing jobs when experts across Canada’s supply chain, and two government departments, had a fulsome and balanced approach to supply chain development? Why shun a balanced approach to government investment focused on building out the entire supply chain?
Where Canada continues to go astray
Canada’s investment strategies have long been plagued by short-term thinking, favouring politically motivated quick wins over sustainable, long-term value creation. The government’s $52.5 billion bet on EV battery manufacturing is a prime example—subsidizing foreign companies while neglecting the development of critical upstream supply chains and domestic innovation. This approach leaves Canada reliant on international markets for critical materials, with little to show in terms of intellectual property or R&D growth.
By ignoring expert advice and focusing on politically strategic regions, Canada misses opportunities to build fully integrated industries across the country, ultimately failing to support homegrown solutions that could foster long-term economic resilience. Instead, Canada continues to prioritize high-risk, low-return investments, with little consideration for the foundational elements needed for a competitive, innovative economy.
Research on industrial policy shows countries are better served when governments focus on delivering well-designed policies aimed at improving general business environments than attempting to artificially create new markets. This is why industrial policies went out of vogue more than two decades ago.
It raises the question – are there examples of successful government interventions that seeded new sectors?
How the Asia-Pacific region cornered the semiconductor market
In the 1980s both the South Korea and Taiwanese governments made strategic early investments in companies that were well positioned to accelerate growth of the semiconductor sector. Today, the Asia-Pacific region is dominating the global market share of what has become a US$620 billion industry. Both South Korea and Taiwan were investing in the semiconductor industry in the 1960s. From a policy perspective, the two countries took similar approaches and focused their state-directed capital allocations to companies like Samsung LG and the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). Through strong government support, both countries created technology institutes, centres for research and development, infrastructure and tax incentives, tax holidays, and interest-free loans.
Those investments helped to seed highly successful sectors in each country. Both countries continue to invest tax dollars back into the sector to help maintain the competitive advantages they helped to foster. South Korea’s semiconductor industry received a $US19 billion show of support from its government earlier this year to create a comprehensive support program spanning financial, research and development, and infrastructure support. The investment is part of a decades long commitment to the semiconductor industry which now accounts for nearly 20 per cent of total exports and plays a leading role in the South Korean economy. In Taiwan, the semiconductor sector is a powerhouse that accounts for 15 per cent of the national GDP and ranks number one globally for wafer foundry and packaging and testing, and number two for integrated circuit (IC) design.
These successes were largely enabled by government-controlled economies and early, and ongoing support to industry. This support did not waiver for decades. It is unlikely that Canada will be able to maintain this level of stability and government focus.
Other factors like access to cheap labour, willingness to specialize, commitment to product quality, and streamlined manufacturing played an important role.
Policy Challenges: Economic and Political Complexities
The challenge of creating successful industrial policy is that it is complex, long-term, has uncertain benefits, and requires government departments to have deep industry expertise. Experts worry that the current federal government simply isn’t up to the task.
In 2023, more than 2,500 new industrial policies were introduced globally, and more than 70 per cent were subsidies, tariffs, or import/export restrictions. These policies create trade distortion more often than they lead to market creation. Trade distortion can unfairly tilt the playing field in favour of domestic industries, often at the expense of foreign competitors.
With Canada’s recent industrial policy on EV battery manufacturing, we are choosing to distort our own economy.
Industrial policies strain global trade and economic relations. Such policies can have wide-ranging effects on both the implementing country and the global economy. They also appear protectionist even to allied nations.
How can Canada get it right?
Many of Canada’s mature sectors have enjoyed government support or protection at some point in our nation’s history. Past Canadian governments have protected the industries of their time, be it agriculture, steel manufacturing, pulp and paper, aerospace, and even defence.
There are recent examples of small sums of government dollars creating big wins for Canada’s homegrown innovation and sustainability economy.
At the provincial level, one organization that stands out is Emissions Reduction Alberta (ERA), an arms-length provincial organization that has weather several changes in government in its 15 years. ERA uses Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction dollars to invest in late-stage sustainable technology. To date, the organization has invested almost $1 billion dollars into 277 technologies at a ratio of 8 industry dollars to 1 ERA dollar.
Federally, Prairies Economic Development Canada (PrairiesCan) is an example of a highly innovative approach to economic development. It has invested millions of dollars in repayable interest-free loans and regional innovation ecosystem supports. Ecosystem supports include accelerators and incubators that have exponentially increased the success of start ups and mature firms alike.
PrairiesCan and ERA operate on annual budgets of $300 million and $50–200 million, respectively. These dollars employ various types of expertise and invest across large swaths of the mature and new economy. They look across hundreds of organizations, understand the regional context, varying business dynamics and make strategic investments.
If government persists in committing tax dollars to the growth of the economy, then it should draw inspiration from these kinds of organizations.
Do Governments Make Effective Market Makers?
Canadians are rightly skeptical about Ottawa’s $52.5 billion bet on EV battery manufacturing.
Ottawa is rolling the dice that it will make Canada a leader in battery supply chains. It’s one of the largest industrial policy bets we have seen in our lifetimes. However, industrial policy analysts are warning about the risk of misallocation of funds.
Expert critics say Canada’s economy is too reliant on government-driven innovation policies. These researchers believe that competition creates markets, and that the government should commit to focusing on reducing policy and regulatory barriers. Many still believe in the capitalist ethos – that fostering a cultural and economic environment that naturally supports risk-taking and competition is the best route to success. The same people would note that the natural process of business turnover is essential for innovation and growth.
Conclusion
Canada’s current strategy of picking winners through massive, targeted subsidies is not just risky – it’s short-sighted. By investing $52.5 billion in a handful of foreign-controlled companies, the government has failed to create a sustainable, long-term economic advantage. Instead of fostering innovation and building a robust, homegrown supply chain, Canada has committed itself to an outdated model of industrial policy that relies on foreign entities and low-value manufacturing jobs. This approach ignores the foundational elements that drive true competitiveness – innovation, R&D, and full value chain development.
What Canada needs is a fundamental shift in its investment strategy. Instead of betting the farm on politically motivated, high-risk subsidies, the government should focus on strengthening ecosystems that support innovation, entrepreneurship, and domestic industry. Investments should be directed at building a fully integrated supply chain that includes mining, refining, and manufacturing, while supporting Canadian companies that will keep intellectual property and jobs at home.
If Canada continues down the current path, it risks becoming a player in someone else’s game, perpetually reliant on foreign companies and global markets. The country should seize this moment to redefine its complete industrial strategy, making bold investments in innovation and infrastructure that can secure economic resilience for generations to come. Without this shift, Canada’s $52.5 billion bet may very well be remembered as one of the biggest missed opportunities in modern economic history.
Tom McCaffery, M.B.A., is the CEO and managing director of Two River Advisory and former executive director of policy and engagement for Emissions Reduction Alberta.
Denaige McDonnell, Ph.D., is an accomplished business management strategist and CEO of People Risk Management, specializing in organizational systems, culture, and psychological safety.
Business
Rand Paul Releases Report Detailing $1,000,000,000,000 In Gov’t Waste. Here Are The Worst Offenders
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By Ireland Owens
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul released a report on Monday outlining more than $1 trillion in government waste from the past year.
The 2024 “Festivus” report highlighted various instances of wasteful government spending from the federal government, including a pickleball complex in Las Vegas and a cabaret show on ice. This year marks Paul’s 10th annual report.
“This year, I am highlighting a whopping $1,008,313,329,626.12,” Paul wrote in the report. “That’s over $1 trillion in government waste, including things like ice-skating drag queens, a $12 Million Las Vegas pickleball complex, $4,840,082 on Ukrainian influencers, and more! No matter how much money the government has wasted, politicians keep demanding even more.”
The Department of the Interior (DOI) spent $12 million on a Las Vegas Pickleball Complex, according to the report. The DOI also spent $720,479 on wetland conservation projects for ducks in Mexico.
“I have a lot of problems with federal spending, and now it’s time to hear all about them,” Paul wrote in the report.
The National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) awarded the Bearded Ladies Cabaret a $10,000 grant to support a cabaret show on ice skates focused on climate change, according to the report. The NEA also spent $365,000 to promote circuses in city parks, the report states.
The State Department spent $500,000 to expand the U.S. Embassy in Ethiopia’s #USInvestsInEthiopians social media campaign to a larger national public relations campaign, according to the report. The State Department also sent $253,653 to Bosnia to fight “misinformation,” spent $2.1 million for Paraguayan Border Security, and spent $3 million for ‘Girl-Centered Climate Action’ in Brazil, according to the report.
The Department of Health and Human Services spent $419,470 to determine if lonely rats seek cocaine more than happy rats, the report states.
The National Science Foundation spent $288,563 to ensure bird watching groups have safe spaces, also known as “Affinity Groups,” according to the report.
President-elect Donald Trump announced on Nov. 12 that he had picked Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk to co-chair a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), aimed at cutting down on wasteful government spending.
“As always, taking the path to fiscal responsibility is often a lonely journey, but I’ve been fighting government waste like DOGE before DOGE was cool, Paul wrote in the report. “And I will continue my fight against government waste this holiday season.”
Many Americans have faced steep costs amid high inflation throughout President Joe Biden’s term, with inflation hitting a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. While inflation rates have eased some since June 2022, prices still remain high, with the consumer price index (CPI), a measure of the price of everyday goods, experiencing a year-over-year increase of 2.7% in November, according to a Dec. 11 report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Some experts have attributed massive government spending under the Biden-Harris administration to fueling inflation rates. The national debt was at $36.16 trillion as of Tuesday, according to U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data.
A spokesperson for Rand Paul did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.
armed forces
Canadian military deployed ‘gender advisors’ to Ukraine, Haiti at taxpayers’ expense
From LifeSiteNews
The Canadian Armed Forces has been pushing a radical LGBT agenda under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with the latest example being ‘Task Force Gender Advisors’ deployed in war-hit nations, such as Haiti and Ukraine.
Canada’s military has been actively pushing a woke pro-LGBT agenda on the world stage, with the latest example being its deployment of “task force gender advisors” internationally in war-hit nations, such as Haiti and Ukraine.
The “gender advisors” initiative is noted in the 2024 Departmental Report of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). This has resulted in it drawing a sharp rebuke from veterans who wonder why the military is spending money on pushing the LGBT agenda abroad.
The CAF report notes how in Poland, for instance, the “Task Force Gender Advisor was involved in all aspects of this training mission and supported the local Defence Attaché in connecting with local and Ukraine-based non-governmental organizations and interested parties.”
The report noted how the “gender advisor” as well as “gender focal points” were sent to military missions in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, Poland, and Latvia throughout 2023.
In war-torn Haiti, “intersectional factors (were) being applied towards stabilization and humanitarian efforts,” via an “Operations HORIZON and PROJECTION” initiative.
This initiative is part of the third “National Action Plan on Women, Peace, and Security for 2023-2029.” This is a program that looks to advance pro-LGBT ideology, such as concepts of different “genders,” in all military operations.
Under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the CAF, as well as all government departments, have pushed an ever-increasing woke agenda, as well as a host of so-called diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies in place.
The military’s action plan notes how there are no less than three full-time “gender advisors” who are in the CAF at all levels.
“A Gender Advisor is a full-time position, usually a military position, and a Gender Focal Point is a part-time position; these exist to support Commanders in the application of GBA+ and gender perspectives in both the institutional and operational realms. Gender Focal Points are positioned throughout CAF. In-theatre, there is a minimum of one GFP on all named missions,” notes a Department of National Defence report.
The president of Veterans for Freedom, Andrew MacGillivray, blasted the woke DEI policies, saying the program has morphed into a “useless overbearing policy that has infiltrated every aspect of the Canadian Armed Forces.”
He noted that war-torn nations most likely don’t care “about gender nonsense being pushed by Canada when they are struggling to keep people alive.”
Since Trudeau became PM, the CAF has become increasingly woke and has been forcing LGBT ideology on many of its personnel. It has also seen recruitment plummet to all-time lows.
As reported by LifeSiteNews, earlier this year, Canada’s first “transgender” military chaplain was suspended for alleged sexual harassment, after he reportedly sought to grope a male soldier at the Royal Military College while drunk.
Canada’s military has spent millions of taxpayer dollars on pro-DEI polls, along with guest speakers, presentations, and workshops, as well as LGBT flags. The workshops covered topics including “the gendered nature of security,” while one talk discussed “integrating gender and diversity perspectives.”
In 2021, the defence department revealed that it has two separate committees and eight programs that worked to appoint homosexual advisors to “innovate” religious instruction and gender-neutral uniforms.
In June of 2023, the Canadian military was criticized for “raising the pride flag” in honor of the so-called “2SLGBTQI+ communities.”
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