Alberta
Any Downturn in Alberta’s Economy Would Inevitably Drag Canada’s Down With It
From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
By Troy Media
Is anyone paying attention?
Canada is heading straight for an economic iceberg, and the rest of the country doesn’t seem to grasp the gravity of the situation. Alberta – long the engine of Canada’s prosperity thanks to its oil and gas sector – is facing a serious decline because the Trudeau government is obsessed with its net-zero policies. And if Alberta falters, the ripple effects will drag down the entire nation. But are we too preoccupied with federal climate targets to recognize the risks staring us in the face?
The Trudeau government’s push for net-zero emissions by 2050 may look noble on paper, but the real-world cost could be catastrophic. The numbers don’t lie: according to a recent column by Troy Media contributor Lennie Kaplan, Alberta’s oil production could drop by a staggering 54 percent by 2050. That’s not just a provincial problem; it’s a national economic emergency waiting to happen.
Let’s cut through the jargon. Alberta makes up about 15 percent of Canada’s GDP. If Alberta’s economy shrinks by $32 billion – as projected – it would trigger a 1.2 percent drop in Canada’s GDP. For context, that’s a multi-billion-dollar hole in a country whose economy is, itself, already in severe decline.
Does Ottawa think a shrinking economy will put us in a stronger position to innovate and grow? Or are they content with turning Alberta into a sacrificial lamb on the altar of climate policy, ignoring the fact that this will make Canada less competitive on the world stage?
Then there’s the job market. Alberta’s energy sector employs thousands and indirectly supports tens of thousands more across Canada. By 2050, again according to Kaplan, Alberta could shed 198,000 jobs – five percent of its workforce. These aren’t just oil rig workers; they’re engineers, construction crews, transport workers, and more.
It gets worse. When Alberta’s economy shrinks, industries from coast to coast that depend on Alberta’s vitality will also take a hit. If even 10 to 15 percent of those job losses trickle across the country, we’re looking at another 20,000 to 30,000 Canadians joining the unemployment line. Yet, where is the urgency to address this looming crisis?
Alberta isn’t just a provincial powerhouse – it’s also a major contributor to federal revenues. Between 2025 and 2050, the province’s contributions could drop by $221 billion due to declining oil and gas revenues. That’s less money for healthcare, infrastructure, and social programs from coast to coast.
For a federal government that already struggles to balance its books, the loss of up to $40 billion in federal tax contributions from Alberta is a fiscal disaster in the making. Where do they expect to make up that shortfall? Higher taxes? Slashed services? Or maybe another round of federal borrowing to kick the can down the road?
Alberta’s oil and gas isn’t just a provincial asset – it’s a critical part of Canada’s trade balance. In 2022, energy exports made up 20 percent of Canada’s total exports. Cut that by more than half, and you’re gutting Canada’s international trade position.
A $70 to 80 billion hit to export revenue could balloon the country’s trade deficit, further devaluing the Canadian dollar and making imports more expensive. In short, this isn’t just bad news for Alberta – it’s an economic calamity that could send shockwaves through every corner of the country.
And let’s not forget the federal equalization program. Alberta has long been a “have” province, contributing far more than it gets back. But if Alberta’s economy falters, it could soon be knocking on Ottawa’s door for handouts.
Imagine the political firestorm if Alberta becomes a “have-not” province, competing for federal support with the very provinces that have relied on its success. The strain on equalization could pit regions against each other, creating a toxic political environment when unity is more crucial than ever.
Does Ottawa even care?
Alberta’s decline isn’t just Alberta’s problem. It’s a Canadian problem. The Trudeau government’s climate obsession needs to take this into account. We cannot afford to sacrifice Alberta’s economic engine without dragging the rest of the country down with it.
What’s the plan to balance climate goals with economic reality? So far, there’s been little more than vague promises and short-term thinking. If Ottawa doesn’t wake up to the real-world consequences of Alberta’s decline, we’re all in for a harsh economic reckoning.
It’s time for our leaders to prioritize pragmatic solutions over virtue signalling. Because if Alberta goes down, the rest of Canada won’t be far behind.
First published here.
Troy Media is an editorial content provider to media outlets and its own hosted community news outlets across Canada.
Alberta
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith Media Roundtable from Washington
From the YouTube channel of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith
Members of the media join Premier Danielle Smith for a round table on January 21, 2025.
Alberta
Is There Any Canadian Province More Proud of their Premier Today…
Yakk Stack By Sheldon Yakiwchuk
Prior to Trumps inauguration event and announcement was made that Trump would not be imposing the 25% tariffs…
Which means, Canada seriously dodged a bullet here.
And while the Liberals will most likely frame this as, their success in showing, Bad Orange Man, that they’re tough and ready to burn down what is left of our economy, throwing Alberta under the bus, first…through a nuclear option…
Premier Smith rode this challenge out like the true champion we knew that she would be.
It’s hard to say if this was a legality matter in the grander scheme…or if the 25% tariffs would have truly been as big of an impact on the US…
One thing is clear, however…
Smith was ready to go to the tables with the Trump administration and opt for diplomacy over threats…which should be what we expect from our leaders.
And should these 25% tariffs have gone through…I’m more than sure a Plan B would have been brought out in civil conversations, over screeching rhetoric.
“She’s treasonous”, they screeched.
“She’s supporting her friends in Oil and Gas”, they relent.
“She should put Canada first”, they echo…
And let’s just address these…
Is Walmart beholden to Campbells soup? Fruit of the Loom? Kraft?
Or does Walmart sell products that helps keep their doors open?
Walmart is not beholden to any product…just like Premier Smith isn’t. We have 26% of our GDP – the largest portion – owed to Alberta O&G, something that we have a limited trade partner with, due to the Liberal – Anti-Alberta/Anti-O&G/Anti-Pipeline attitude that wants to spend us further in debt with unreliable and expensive “Renewables”.
What does Alberta get from renewables?
A higher cost for energy, in an affordability crisis, created by the same people who continue to push them…sounds like a terrible deal, for Albertans, and something a true leader would Not Favor.
When Walmart sits down to hash out a deal with Heinz, are they committing treason because they haven’t shown their allegiance to their own, ‘Great Value’ brand Ketchup?
No…other provinces have their own industries and resources, which they are free to continue developing independent of the federal government, as is suitable and supportive of their own economies…Alberta isn’t competing with them, nor Canada as a whole.
Alberta through industry and resource, actually supports Canada through a grand imbalance on “Equalization Payments”…
As do we through paying 50% more into the Canada Pension Plan, than we actually get out of the Canada Pension Plan…to the tune of a $334 Billion Dollars.
And as for this “Team Canada”, horseshit…
The title Premier of Alberta, should hold some clues as to who Premier Smith should be advocating for…as she is the Premier of Alberta and Not the Prime Minister, nor leader in the Liberal Party that has created this fiasco, to begin with.
Rail, as they may…other provinces can’t cast a vote in her support, either way…
None of the other provinces, through Members of Parliament, nor through Premiers, came to support Alberta and our economy through a number of Federal Bills that railed on our provincial resources…
Worse yet…these hypocrites cash cheques from our province, while telling us how to diversify our economy…to which I’d state one thing unequivocally…
If we wanted to be a Have Not Province…like you are…we’ll come and ask you for your advice.
Until then…
I’ll hold my Alberta Flag Higher than my Canadian…
And be proud today, of having the only Premier in the country of Canada, worthy of any praise today!
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