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Alberta

Alberta’s emergency grid alert underscores vital role diverse energy mix plays in Canada

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From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Cody Ciona

After a major cold spell affected the capacity of Alberta’s power grid to provide electricity, experts weigh in on the need for multiple sources of energy

The crucial need for Canada to have a flexible and diverse energy grid was given a practical demonstration this past weekend as frigid winter temperatures in Alberta prompted a grid emergency.

With temperatures in some places dropping to almost –50C with the wind chill, provincial officials issued an emergency alert asking Albertans to immediately reduce electricity usage, with the grid approaching maximum capacity during peak hours.

With wind and solar assets unable to contribute power and the unexpected shutdown of two natural gas plants, Albertans faced the possibility of rolling blackouts in dangerously cold conditions.

A day after the emergency, the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) thanked Albertans who responded quickly to reduce the demand load.

“This is an example of why we need to ensure that we have sufficient dispatchable, dependable generation available to us as a province to meet what is always our most challenging time, which is those cold, dark winter nights,” Michael Law, CEO of AESO, told the Calgary Herald.

The prospect of failure in the worst possible circumstances prompted energy analysts to highlight the critical need for a diverse and flexible energy grid.

“You could have had 50,000 megawatts, all the solar farms and wind farms in the world located in Alberta, and it still wouldn’t have come anywhere close to closing that gap,” University of Alberta economics professor Andrew Leach told CBC News.

Wind and solar can be major contributors to the grid when conditions allow, but when the sun goes down and the wind stops, base load power sources like natural gas reliably protect the system.

Leach said system operators need to plan for supply to manage adverse weather conditions to ensure the reliability of the grid.

“Whether it’s natural gas, nuclear, import capacity, battery storage, etc., geothermal, there’s nobody that’s arguing against that.”

With policymakers pushing for more electrification, University of Alberta industrial engineering professor Tim Weis said Alberta isn’t alone in the need for resilient and stable power supply.

“I think we need to wrestle with that and realize that we are moving into a world where there’s going to be more electrical demands on the system,” he told Global News.

“We are moving into a new world. We’re not the only ones facing some of these challenges. I think we’re a little bit behind responding in terms of dispatchable demand and allowing consumers the opportunity to automatically respond to some of these things.”

As the federal government aims to decarbonize Canada’s electricity generation by 2035 with sweeping regulations, flexibility for some jurisdictions is a key factor that needs to be addressed, said University of Calgary associate professor of economics Blake Shaffer.

“I do think that this shows us that no amount of renewables would push us to have solved that winter peak on Saturday,” he told CTV Calgary.

“And that means flexibility to have a gas fleet, for example, that is capable of being there for a few hours for a few days, maybe a few weeks a year. And we need the technical and economic setup to make that worth their while to be there,” Shaffer said.

“We saw this cold weather coming, everybody was preparing for it. The wind forecast was out a week ago we saw there was going to be no wind. Thankfully, the gas thermal fleet performed amazingly well.”

Natural gas generation was able to backstop the reduction in renewable power, said ARC Energy Research Institute executive director Jackie Forrest.

“The system delivered during the deep freeze this past weekend… so reliably that no one even noticed… I have long argued that gaseous fuels are needed in the mix for energy transition and the need to become cleaner; this is why,” said Forrest on X, formerly known as Twitter.

According to Forrest’s colleague, energy economist Peter Tertzakian, Alberta’s oil sands industry also plays a big role in power generation in the province with the prominence of natural gas-powered cogeneration facilities.

“The power that’s generated in this province during this cold spell, about 40 per cent of it comes from cogeneration. The bulk of which comes from the oil sands and all their big generators which have surplus electricity that they feed into the grid,” said Tertzakian on ARC Energy Institute’s latest podcast.

“I think it’s important to understand that any policies that affect oil sands also affect the electricity grid.”

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Alberta

Alberta government’s plan will improve access to MRIs and CT scans

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From the Fraser Institute

By Nadeem Esmail and Tegan Hill

The Smith government may soon allow Albertans to privately purchase diagnostic screening and testing services, prompting familiar cries from defenders of the status quo. But in reality, this change, which the government plans to propose in the legislature in the coming months, would simply give Albertans an option already available to patients in every other developed country with universal health care.

It’s important for Albertans and indeed all Canadians to understand the unique nature of our health-care system. In every one of the 30 other developed countries with universal health care, patients are free to seek care on their own terms with their own resources when the universal system is unwilling or unable to satisfy their needs. Whether to access care with shorter wait times and a more rapid return to full health, to access more personalized services or meet a personal health need, or to access new advances in medical technology. But not in Canada.

That prohibition has not served Albertans well. Despite being one of the highest-spending provinces in one of the most expensive universal health-care systems in the developed world, Albertans endure some of the longest wait times for health care and some of the worst availability of advanced diagnostic and medical technologies including MRI machines and CT scanners.

Introducing new medical technologies is a costly endeavour, which requires money and the actual equipment, but also the proficiency, knowledge and expertise to use it properly. By allowing Albertans to privately purchase diagnostic screening and testing services, the Smith government would encourage private providers to make these technologies available and develop the requisite knowledge.

Obviously, these new providers would improve access to these services for all Alberta patients—first for those willing to pay for them, and then for patients in the public system. In other words, adding providers to the health-care system expands the supply of these services, which will reduce wait times for everyone, not just those using private clinics. And relief can’t come soon enough. In Alberta, in 2024 the median wait time for a CT scan was 12 weeks and 24 weeks for an MRI.

Greater access and shorter wait times will also benefit Albertans concerned about their future health or preventative care. When these Albertans can quickly access a private provider, their appointments may lead to the early discovery of medical problems. Early detection can improve health outcomes and reduce the amount of public health-care resources these Albertans may ultimately use in the future. And that means more resources available for all other patients, to the benefit of all Albertans including those unable to access the private option.

Opponents of this approach argue that it’s a move towards two-tier health care, which will drain resources from the public system, or that this is “American-style” health care. But these arguments ignore that private alternatives benefit all patients in universal health-care systems in the rest of the developed world. For example, Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands and Australia all have higher-performing universal systems that provide more timely care because of—not despite—the private options available to patients.

In reality, the Smith government’s plan to allow Albertans to privately purchase diagnostic screening and testing services is a small step in the right direction to reduce wait times and improve health-care access in the province. In fact, the proposal doesn’t go far enough—the government should allow Albertans to purchase physician appointments and surgeries privately, too. Hopefully the Smith government continues to reform the province’s health-care system, despite ill-informed objections, with all patients in mind.

Nadeem Esmail

Director, Health Policy, Fraser Institute

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute
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Alberta

Canada’s heavy oil finds new fans as global demand rises

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From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Will Gibson

“The refining industry wants heavy oil. We are actually in a shortage of heavy oil globally right now, and you can see that in the prices”

Once priced at a steep discount to its lighter, sweeter counterparts, Canadian oil has earned growing admiration—and market share—among new customers in Asia.

Canada’s oil exports are primarily “heavy” oil from the Alberta oil sands, compared to oil from more conventional “light” plays like the Permian Basin in the U.S.

One way to think of it is that heavy oil is thick and does not flow easily, while light oil is thin and flows freely, like fudge compared to apple juice.

“The refining industry wants heavy oil. We are actually in a shortage of heavy oil globally right now, and you can see that in the prices,” said Susan Bell, senior vice-president of downstream research with Rystad Energy.

A narrowing price gap

Alberta’s heavy oil producers generally receive a lower price than light oil producers, partly a result of different crude quality but mainly because of the cost of transportation, according to S&P Global.

The “differential” between Western Canadian Select (WCS) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) blew out to nearly US$50 per barrel in 2018 because of pipeline bottlenecks, forcing Alberta to step in and cut production.

So far this year, the differential has narrowed to as little as US$10 per barrel, averaging around US$12, according to GLJ Petroleum Consultants.

“The differential between WCS and WTI is the narrowest I’ve seen in three decades working in the industry,” Bell said.

Trans Mountain Expansion opens the door to Asia

Oil tanker docked at the Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, B.C. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

The price boost is thanks to the Trans Mountain expansion, which opened a new gateway to Asia in May 2024 by nearly tripling the pipeline’s capacity.

This helps fill the supply void left by other major regions that export heavy oil – Venezuela and Mexico – where production is declining or unsteady.

Canadian oil exports outside the United States reached a record 525,000 barrels per day in July 2025, the latest month of data available from the Canada Energy Regulator.

China leads Asian buyers since the expansion went into service, along with Japan, Brunei and Singapore, Bloomberg reports

Asian refineries see opportunity in heavy oil

“What we are seeing now is a lot of refineries in the Asian market have been exposed long enough to WCS and now are comfortable with taking on regular shipments,” Bell said.

Kevin Birn, chief analyst for Canadian oil markets at S&P Global, said rising demand for heavier crude in Asia comes from refineries expanding capacity to process it and capture more value from lower-cost feedstocks.

“They’ve invested in capital improvements on the front end to convert heavier oils into more valuable refined products,” said Birn, who also heads S&P’s Center of Emissions Excellence.

Refiners in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest made similar investments over the past 40 years to capitalize on supply from Latin America and the oil sands, he said.

While oil sands output has grown, supplies from Latin America have declined.

Mexico’s state oil company, Pemex, reports it produced roughly 1.6 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025, a steep drop from 2.3 million in 2015 and 2.6 million in 2010.

Meanwhile, Venezuela’s oil production, which was nearly 2.9 million barrels per day in 2010, was just 965,000 barrels per day this September, according to OPEC.

The case for more Canadian pipelines

Worker at an oil sands SAGD processing facility in northern Alberta. Photo courtesy Strathcona Resources

“The growth in heavy demand, and decline of other sources of heavy supply has contributed to a tighter market for heavy oil and narrower spreads,” Birn said.

Even the International Energy Agency, known for its bearish projections of future oil demand, sees rising global use of extra-heavy oil through 2050.

The chief impediments to Canada building new pipelines to meet the demand are political rather than market-based, said both Bell and Birn.

“There is absolutely a business case for a second pipeline to tidewater,” Bell said.

“The challenge is other hurdles limiting the growth in the industry, including legislation such as the tanker ban or the oil and gas emissions cap.”

A strategic choice for Canada

Because Alberta’s oil sands will continue a steady, reliable and low-cost supply of heavy oil into the future, Birn said policymakers and Canadians have options.

“Canada needs to ask itself whether to continue to expand pipeline capacity south to the United States or to access global markets itself, which would bring more competition for its products.”

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