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Alberta

Alberta government must restrain spending in upcoming budget to avoid red ink

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4 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Milagros Palacios

Whether due to U.S. tariffs or lower-than-expected oil prices, the Smith government has repeatedly warned Albertans that despite a $4.6 billion projected budget surplus in 2024/25, Alberta could soon be in the red. To help avoid this fate, the Smith government must restrain spending in its upcoming 2025 budget.

These are not simply numbers on a page; budget deficits have real consequences for Albertans. For one, deficits fuel debt accumulation. And just as Albertans must pay interest on their own mortgages or car loans, taxpayers must pay interest on government debt. Each dollar spent paying interest is a dollar diverted from programs such as health care and education, or potential tax relief. This fiscal year, provincial government debt interest costs will reach a projected $650 per Albertan.

And while many risk factors are out of the government’s direct control, the government can control its own spending.

In its 2023 budget, the Smith government committed to keep the rate of spending growth to below the rate of inflation and population growth. This was an important step forward after decades of successive governments substantially increasing spending during good times—when resource revenues (including oil and gas royalties) were relatively high (as they are today)—but failing to rein in spending when resource revenue inevitably declined.

But here’s the problem. Even if the Smith government sticks to this commitment, it may still fall into deficit. Why? Because this government has spent significantly more than it originally planned in its 2022 mid-year plan (the Smith government’s first fiscal update). In other words, the government’s “restraint” is starting from a significantly higher base level of spending. For example, this fiscal year it will spend $8.2 billion more than it originally planned in its 2022 mid-year plan. And inflation and population growth only account for $3.1 billion of this additional spending. In other words, $5.1 billion of this new spending is unrelated to offsetting higher prices or Alberta’s growing population.

Because of this higher spending and reliance on volatile resource revenue, red ink looms.

Indeed, while the Smith government projects budget surpluses over the next three fiscal years, fuelled by historically high resource revenue, if resource revenue was at its average of the last two decades, this year’s $4.6 billion projected budget surplus would turn into a $5.8 billion deficit. And projected budget surpluses in 2025/26 and 2026/27 would flip to budget deficits. To be clear, this is not a far-fetched scenario—resource revenue plummeted by nearly 70 per cent in 2015/16.

In contrast, if resource revenue fell to its average (again, based on the last two decades) but the Smith government held to its original 2022 spending plan, Alberta would still have a balanced budget in 2026/27.

Bottom line; had the Smith government not substantially increased spending over the last two years, Alberta’s spending levels today would align with more stable ongoing levels of revenue, which would put Alberta on more stable fiscal footing in the years to come.

Premier Smith has warned Albertans a budget deficit may be on the way. To mitigate the risk of red ink moving forward, the Smith government should show real spending restraint in its 2025 budget.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Milagros Palacios

Director, Addington Centre for Measurement, Fraser Institute

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Alberta

Alberta pushes back on illegal U.S. tariffs

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Alberta’s government is implementing a proportionate, measured response to U.S. tariffs and taking decisive action on internal trade with free trade and mobility agreements.

As part of its non-tariff retaliatory measures, Alberta is altering its procurement practices to ensure Alberta’s government, as well as agencies, school boards, Crown corporations and Alberta municipalities, purchase their goods and services from Alberta companies, Canadian companies or countries with which Canada has a free trade agreement that is being honoured.  

“I will always put the best interests of Alberta and Albertans first. These non-tariff actions are measured, proportionate and put an emphasis on defending Alberta and Canada against these economically destructive tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, while breaking down restrictive provincial trade barriers so we can fast-track nation building resource projects and allow for the unrestricted movement of goods, services and labour across the country. I understand this is an uncertain time for many Albertans, and our government will continue to do all it can to prioritize Alberta’s and Canada’s world-class products and businesses as we face this challenge together. I also look forward to working with my provincial counterparts to help unite Canada and ensure free and fair trade throughout our country.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

Alberta’s government has also directed Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis to suspend the purchase of U.S. alcohol and video lottery terminals (VLTs) from American companies until further notice. This will ensure Alberta and Canadian brands take priority in restaurants, bars and on retail shelves.

“We are committed to putting Canadian businesses first. By suspending the purchase of U.S. produced alcohol, slot machines and VLTs, we are ensuring that Alberta and Canadian brands take priority in our restaurants, bars and retail stores. We will continue to take bold steps to support local industries and strengthen our economy.”

Dale Nally, Minister of Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction

To encourage the purchase of stock from vendors in Alberta, Canada and other countries with which Canada has a free trade agreement, the government will help all Alberta grocers and other retailers with labelling Canadian products in their stores. In the coming weeks, Alberta’s government will augment these efforts by launching a “Buy Alberta” marketing campaign. Spearheaded by Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation RJ Sigurdson, this campaign will remind Albertans of their options for local food and the importance of supporting Alberta’s agriculture producers and processers.

“Alberta’s agriculture producers and processers are the best in the world. Although these U.S. tariffs are incredibly concerning, this “Buy Alberta” campaign will put a spotlight on Alberta’s farmers, ranchers and agri-food businesses and support Albertans in choosing goods from right here at home.”

RJ Sigurdson, Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation

Building on Alberta’s reputation as a leader in removing barriers to trade within Canada, Alberta’s government will continue to push other provinces to match our ambition in providing full labour mobility and eliminating trade barriers through work like mutual recognition of regulations. This will allow for goods, services and labour from other provinces to flow into and out of Alberta without having to undergo additional regulatory assessments.

“While no one wins in a tariff war, this situation underscores the need to develop Canada’s trade infrastructure and the diversification of our trading partners and could be the catalyst to unlocking Canada’s true potential. As we look at how best to support Albertans and our businesses, we must also work to reduce internal trade and labour mobility barriers while expanding markets for Alberta energy, agricultural and manufactured products into Europe, Asia, the Americas and beyond. Albertans and Canadians are counting on us.”

Matt Jones, Minister of Jobs, Economy and Trade

Alberta’s government is also focused on doubling oil production. With U.S. tariffs in place on Canadian energy products, Alberta is looking elsewhere for additional pipeline infrastructure, including east and west, in order to get our products to new markets.

Alberta’s government will continue to engage with elected officials and industry leaders in the U.S. to reverse these tariffs on Canadian goods and energy and rebuild Canada’s relationship with its largest trading partner and ally.

Quick facts

  • On March 4, U.S. President Trump implemented a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods and a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian energy.
  • The U.S. is Alberta’s – and Canada’s – largest trading partner.
  • Alberta is the second largest provincial exporter to the U.S. after Ontario.
    • In 2024, Alberta’s exports to the U.S. totalled C$162.6 billion, accounting for 88.7 per cent of total provincial exports.
    • Energy products accounted for approximately C$132.8 billion or 82.2 per cent of Alberta’s exports to the U.S. in 2024.
  • About 10 per cent of liquor products in stock in Alberta are imported from the United States.
    • U.S. products represent a small minority of the beer and refreshment beverage categories; however, a significant number of wines originate in the U.S.
    • In 2023-24, about $292 million in U.S. liquor products were sold in Alberta.
  • Alberta has been a longstanding supporter of reducing barriers to trade within Canada. In 2019, the province removed 21 of 27 exceptions, including all procurement exceptions, and narrowed the scope of two others. Since then, the province has only added 2 exceptions, which allow for the management the legalization of cannabis.
    • Removing party-specific exemptions has helped facilitate even greater access to the Alberta market for Canadian companies in the areas of government tenders, Crown land acquisition, liquor, energy and forest products, among others.
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Alberta

Securing the Alberta-U.S. border

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Alberta’s border security plan is advancing rapidly with more measures in place to stop illegal activity at the Alberta-U.S. border.

In December 2024, Alberta’s government announced a $29-million investment to create an Interdiction Patrol Team (IPT) within the Alberta Sheriffs to crack down on illegal cross-border activities threatening lives and livelihoods on both sides of the Alberta-Montana border. Alberta’s government recognizes the need for swift and decisive action that will curb drug trafficking and illegal border crossings to strengthen the province’s border security.

The team’s first cohort has been deployed and hiring will continue until all 51 positions are filled. The IPT is now operational, working closely with the RCMP and Canada Border Services Agency to identify and apprehend individuals suspected of drug smuggling, human trafficking and other illegal activities involving movement across the Canada-U.S. border. To date, 20 members of the Alberta Sheriffs have been assigned to the IPT to patrol between entry points, and to vehicle inspection stations along Alberta’s side of the border.

Sheriffs Interdiction Patrol Team mapSheriffs Interdiction Patrol Team map

“We are committed to strengthening security along Alberta’s southern border to put an end to the dangerous criminal activities that are destroying lives on both sides of the border. In addition to launching our new Interdiction Patrol Team, we are building three new vehicle inspection stations and increasing highway monitoring for suspicious activity. Our plan will ensure that Alberta’s southern border is secure.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

“Alberta’s government is increasing border security and has zero tolerance for illegal activities that threaten the well-being of Albertans or Alberta’s economy. The Alberta Sheriffs Interdiction Patrol Team puts more boots on the ground to identify where and when these activities are taking place, boosting security along our southern border and disrupting dangerous cross-border human, drugs and weapons trafficking in both directions. Let this be a message to all potential traffickers, especially those who traffic deadly fentanyl, you will get caught and you will go to jail.”

Mike Ellis, Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Services

Alberta’s government continues to acquire equipment that will enable the IPT to detect and apprehend individuals committing illegal activity, including drones, night-vision optics and patrol canines. This team will patrol to detect and intercept illicit drugs, illegal firearms and unlawful attempts at illegal international border crossing. The IPT will be fully operational in coming months.

Through this process, Alberta has identified further significant concerns with the shared Canada-U.S. border. In response, Alberta’s government is advancing further measures to increase the security of the southern border.

In addition to the IPT, Alberta Transportation and Economic Corridors is dedicating $15 million over two years for three new vehicle inspection stations near the border, if Budget 2025 passes. This will give Sheriffs dedicated facilities to inspect commercial vehicles, whether they’re crossing into the United States or coming into Canada. The stations will be located on Highway 1 at Dunmore, Highway 3 at Burmis and Highway 4 at Coutts. The stations will include enhanced parking lanes for inspections, and winter ready buildings for year-round inspections.

Another measure undertaken by Alberta’s government is to train highway maintenance workers to identify and report suspicious activity during highway maintenance operations. Volker Stevin has a contract to maintain about 600 kilometres of highways in southern Alberta and by empowering their workers to identify and report suspicious activity, Alberta’s government is layering further security measures without adding additional costs.

“Border security is a priority, and Alberta Transportation and Economic Corridors is doing its part to enhance security and surveillance through three new vehicle inspection stations and with the help of our highway maintenance contractors, who will be trained to detect and report suspicious activity, providing an extra pair of eyes along the border.”

Devin Dreeshen, Minister of Transportation and Economic Corridors

“The Interdiction Patrol Team will play a key role in eradicating crimes that seek to exploit the Alberta-Montana border in both directions. The Alberta Sheriffs are pleased to collaborate with the RCMP, Canada Border Services Agency and our counterparts in the United States as we work to keep our shared border safe and secure.”

Bob Andrews, chief, Alberta Sheriffs

Alberta’s government also amended the Critical Infrastructure Defence Regulation in January 2025 to add a two-kilometre-deep border zone north of the Alberta-United States border to the definition of essential infrastructure under the Critical Infrastructure Defence Act. The act gives peace officers the authority to arrest individuals caught trespassing on, interfering with or damaging essential infrastructure and who do not have a lawful right, to be on the essential infrastructure.

“Amending the Critical Infrastructure Defence Regulation is a key piece of our efforts to strengthen security in the area near the international border. We have quickly taken action that will support law enforcement in improving public safety, and tackle cross-border crime, drugs, illegal migrants and human-trafficking.”

Mickey Amery, Minister of Justice and Attorney General

Quick facts:

IPT will be supported by:

  • 51 uniformed officers equipped with carbine rifles (weapons for tactical operations)
  • 10 support staff, including dispatchers and analysts
  • four drug patrol dogs, critical to ensure reasonable suspicion to search vehicles
  • 10 cold weather surveillance drones that can operate in high winds with dedicated pilots
  • four narcotics analyzers to test for illicit drugs

The IPT has already conducted more than 3,300 stops/contacts and has been successful in:

  • assisting with four Northbound unauthorized border crossings
  • executing 18 warrants and conducting two Judicial Interim Release hearings
  • conducting three arrests related to possession of cocaine for the purpose of trafficking

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