Alberta
Alberta government must reform spending to avoid deficits
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
According to Premier Danielle Smith, the Alberta government is creating a new committee—composed of the premier, Finance Minister Nate Horner, Technology and Innovation Minister Nate Glubish, three treasury board members, and three private members—to review government spending in the province. Smith says the committee will find savings so her government can deliver on the promised personal income tax cut. But in fact, the need for a thorough program review is much broader than that.
A bit of background.
During the election campaign, Smith promised to create a new 8 per cent tax bracket for personal income below $60,000, which is expected to cost provincial coffers $1.4 billion annually. While the Smith government’s 2024 budget delayed this tax cut, the premier recently said a “substantial” cut is coming soon.
According to Smith, the committee will review “every single program in every single department to see if there are ways that we can remove wasteful spending, move spending from low-priority areas to high-priority areas, find ways that we can use technology to be able to deliver services better, and accelerate that personal income tax cut.”
Again, the idea of a program-by-program review is a good one. But the goal must span beyond finding savings for a single personal income tax cut. Alberta has a big spending problem and it must be meaningfully addressed.
Simply put, Alberta governments have a bad habit of increasing spending during the good times of high resource revenue and budget surpluses, like the province is currently experiencing, but fail to rein in spending when resource revenues fall. This pattern has led to historically high levels of government spending—and budget deficits—even in more recent years.
To be clear, the Smith government introduced a rule to limit increases in operating spending (e.g. spending on annual items such as government employee compensation) to the rate of population growth and inflation. But while this a step in the right direction, the government’s earlier spending increases since 2022 mean it continues to rely on relatively high—but very volatile—resource revenue to balance its budget.
Indeed, according to this year’s provincial budget, program spending this year will reach $14,334 per Albertan, which is $1,603 more per person (inflation-adjusted) than the government originally planned to spend in the 2022 mid-year budget update, Smith’s first fiscal plan as premier.
In total, the Alberta government will spend a projected $6,037 more per Albertan (inflation-adjusted) over four years from 2023/24 to 2026/27 than it planned in the 2022 mid-year budget update.
In other words, the government’s current plan to restrain spending by the rate of inflation and population growth is starting from a higher base level of spending. As a result, Alberta remains at risk of incurring a budget deficit when relatively high resource revenue declines.
For perspective, if resource revenue fell to its average over the last 10 years—rather than being at historic highs—the government’s $367 million projected surplus for this year would immediately fall to a deficit of $7.4 billion, even before the billion-dollar tax cut that Smith says is coming soon.
The Alberta government should use its program review to more closely align ongoing spending with stable ongoing levels of government revenue rather than onetime windfalls. Otherwise, Alberta will continue on its boom-and-bust rollercoaster that inevitably leads back to deficits and more debt.
Author:
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
According to the recent mid-year update tabled Thursday, the Smith government projects a $4.6 billion surplus in 2024/25, up from the $2.9 billion surplus projected just a few months ago. Despite the good news, Premier Smith must reduce spending to avoid budget deficits.
The fiscal update projects resource revenue of $20.3 billion in 2024/25. Today’s relatively high—but very volatile—resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is helping finance today’s spending and maintain a balanced budget. But it will not last forever.
For perspective, in just the last decade the Alberta government’s annual resource revenue has been as low as $2.8 billion (2015/16) and as high as $25.2 billion (2022/23).
And while the resource revenue rollercoaster is currently in Alberta’s favor, Finance Minister Nate Horner acknowledges that “risks are on the rise” as oil prices have dropped considerably and forecasters are projecting downward pressure on prices—all of which impacts resource revenue.
In fact, the government’s own estimates show a $1 change in oil prices results in an estimated $630 million revenue swing. So while the Smith government plans to maintain a surplus in 2024/25, a small change in oil prices could quickly plunge Alberta back into deficit. Premier Smith has warned that her government may fall into a budget deficit this fiscal year.
This should come as no surprise. Alberta’s been on the resource revenue rollercoaster for decades. Successive governments have increased spending during the good times of high resource revenue, but failed to rein in spending when resource revenues fell.
Previous research has shown that, in Alberta, a $1 increase in resource revenue is associated with an estimated 56-cent increase in program spending the following fiscal year (on a per-person, inflation-adjusted basis). However, a decline in resource revenue is not similarly associated with a reduction in program spending. This pattern has led to historically high levels of government spending—and budget deficits—even in more recent years.
Consider this: If this fiscal year the Smith government received an average level of resource revenue (based on levels over the last 10 years), it would receive approximately $13,000 per Albertan. Yet the government plans to spend nearly $15,000 per Albertan this fiscal year (after adjusting for inflation). That’s a huge gap of roughly $2,000—and it means the government is continuing to take big risks with the provincial budget.
Of course, if the government falls back into deficit there are implications for everyday Albertans.
When the government runs a deficit, it accumulates debt, which Albertans must pay to service. In 2024/25, the government’s debt interest payments will cost each Albertan nearly $650. That’s largely because, despite running surpluses over the last few years, Albertans are still paying for debt accumulated during the most recent string of deficits from 2008/09 to 2020/21 (excluding 2014/15), which only ended when the government enjoyed an unexpected windfall in resource revenue in 2021/22.
According to Thursday’s mid-year fiscal update, Alberta’s finances continue to be at risk. To avoid deficits, the Smith government should meaningfully reduce spending so that it’s aligned with more reliable, stable levels of revenue.
Author:
Better, faster, more affordable auto insurance
Alberta’s government is introducing a new auto insurance system that will provide better and faster services to Albertans while reducing auto insurance premiums.
After hearing from more than 16,000 Albertans through an online survey about their priorities for auto insurance policies, Alberta’s government is introducing a new privately delivered, care-focused auto insurance system.
Right now, insurance in the province is not affordable or care focused. Despite high premiums, Albertans injured in collisions do not get the timely medical care and income support they need in a system that is complex to navigate. When fully implemented, Alberta’s new auto insurance system will deliver better and faster care for those involved in collisions, and Albertans will see cost savings up to $400 per year.
“Albertans have been clear they need an auto insurance system that provides better, faster care and is more affordable. When it’s implemented, our new privately delivered, care-centred insurance system will put the focus on Albertans’ recovery, providing more effective support and will deliver lower rates.”
“High auto insurance rates put strain on Albertans. By shifting to a system that offers improved benefits and support, we are providing better and faster care to Albertans, with lower costs.”
Albertans who suffer injuries due to a collision currently wait months for a simple claim to be resolved and can wait years for claims related to more serious and life-changing injuries to addressed. Additionally, the medical and financial benefits they receive often expire before they’re fully recovered.
Under the new system, Albertans who suffer catastrophic injuries will receive treatment and care for the rest of their lives. Those who sustain serious injuries will receive treatment until they are fully recovered. These changes mirror and build upon the Saskatchewan insurance model, where at-fault drivers can be sued for pain and suffering damages if they are convicted of a criminal offence, such as impaired driving or dangerous driving, or conviction of certain offenses under the Traffic Safety Act.
Work on this new auto insurance system will require legislation in the spring of 2025. In order to reconfigure auto insurance policies for 3.4 million Albertans, auto insurance companies need time to create and implement the new system. Alberta’s government expects the new system to be fully implemented by January 2027.
In the interim, starting in January 2025, the good driver rate cap will be adjusted to a 7.5% increase due to high legal costs, increasing vehicle damage repair costs and natural disaster costs. This protects good drivers from significant rate increases while ensuring that auto insurance providers remain financially viable in Alberta.
Albertans have been clear that they still want premiums to be based on risk. Bad drivers will continue to pay higher premiums than good drivers.
By providing significantly enhanced medical, rehabilitation and income support benefits, this system supports Albertans injured in collisions while reducing the impact of litigation costs on the amount that Albertans pay for their insurance.
“Keeping more money in Albertans’ pockets is one of the best ways to address the rising cost of living. This shift to a care-first automobile insurance system will do just that by helping lower premiums for people across the province.”
Quick facts
- Alberta’s government commissioned two auto insurance reports, which showed that legal fees and litigation costs tied to the province’s current system significantly increase premiums.
- A 2023 report by MNP shows
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