Alberta
Alberta government must reform spending to avoid deficits

From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
According to Premier Danielle Smith, the Alberta government is creating a new committee—composed of the premier, Finance Minister Nate Horner, Technology and Innovation Minister Nate Glubish, three treasury board members, and three private members—to review government spending in the province. Smith says the committee will find savings so her government can deliver on the promised personal income tax cut. But in fact, the need for a thorough program review is much broader than that.
A bit of background.
During the election campaign, Smith promised to create a new 8 per cent tax bracket for personal income below $60,000, which is expected to cost provincial coffers $1.4 billion annually. While the Smith government’s 2024 budget delayed this tax cut, the premier recently said a “substantial” cut is coming soon.
According to Smith, the committee will review “every single program in every single department to see if there are ways that we can remove wasteful spending, move spending from low-priority areas to high-priority areas, find ways that we can use technology to be able to deliver services better, and accelerate that personal income tax cut.”
Again, the idea of a program-by-program review is a good one. But the goal must span beyond finding savings for a single personal income tax cut. Alberta has a big spending problem and it must be meaningfully addressed.
Simply put, Alberta governments have a bad habit of increasing spending during the good times of high resource revenue and budget surpluses, like the province is currently experiencing, but fail to rein in spending when resource revenues fall. This pattern has led to historically high levels of government spending—and budget deficits—even in more recent years.
To be clear, the Smith government introduced a rule to limit increases in operating spending (e.g. spending on annual items such as government employee compensation) to the rate of population growth and inflation. But while this a step in the right direction, the government’s earlier spending increases since 2022 mean it continues to rely on relatively high—but very volatile—resource revenue to balance its budget.
Indeed, according to this year’s provincial budget, program spending this year will reach $14,334 per Albertan, which is $1,603 more per person (inflation-adjusted) than the government originally planned to spend in the 2022 mid-year budget update, Smith’s first fiscal plan as premier.
In total, the Alberta government will spend a projected $6,037 more per Albertan (inflation-adjusted) over four years from 2023/24 to 2026/27 than it planned in the 2022 mid-year budget update.
In other words, the government’s current plan to restrain spending by the rate of inflation and population growth is starting from a higher base level of spending. As a result, Alberta remains at risk of incurring a budget deficit when relatively high resource revenue declines.
For perspective, if resource revenue fell to its average over the last 10 years—rather than being at historic highs—the government’s $367 million projected surplus for this year would immediately fall to a deficit of $7.4 billion, even before the billion-dollar tax cut that Smith says is coming soon.
The Alberta government should use its program review to more closely align ongoing spending with stable ongoing levels of government revenue rather than onetime windfalls. Otherwise, Alberta will continue on its boom-and-bust rollercoaster that inevitably leads back to deficits and more debt.
Author:
Alberta
Albertans have contributed $53.6 billion to the retirement of Canadians in other provinces

From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill and Nathaniel Li
Albertans contributed $53.6 billion more to CPP then retirees in Alberta received from it from 1981 to 2022
Albertans’ net contribution to the Canada Pension Plan —meaning the amount Albertans paid into the program over and above what retirees in Alberta
received in CPP payments—was more than six times as much as any other province at $53.6 billion from 1981 to 2022, finds a new report published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“Albertan workers have been helping to fund the retirement of Canadians from coast to coast for decades, and Canadians ought to know that without Alberta, the Canada Pension Plan would look much different,” said Tegan Hill, director of Alberta policy at the Fraser Institute and co-author of Understanding Alberta’s Role in National Programs, Including the Canada Pension Plan.
From 1981 to 2022, Alberta workers contributed 14.4 per cent (on average) of the total CPP premiums paid—Canada’s compulsory, government- operated retirement pension plan—while retirees in the province received only 10.0 per cent of the payments. Alberta’s net contribution over that period was $53.6 billion.
Crucially, only residents in two provinces—Alberta and British Columbia—paid more into the CPP than retirees in those provinces received in benefits, and Alberta’s contribution was six times greater than BC’s.
The reason Albertans have paid such an outsized contribution to federal and national programs, including the CPP, in recent years is because of the province’s relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes, and younger population.
As such, if Alberta withdrew from the CPP, Alberta workers could expect to receive the same retirement benefits but at a lower cost (i.e. lower payroll tax) than other Canadians, while the payroll tax would likely have to increase for the rest of the country (excluding Quebec) to maintain the same benefits.
“Given current demographic projections, immigration patterns, and Alberta’s long history of leading the provinces in economic growth, Albertan workers will likely continue to pay more into it than Albertan retirees get back from it,” Hill said.
Understanding Alberta’s Role in National Programs, Including the Canada Pension Plan
- Understanding Alberta’s role in national income transfers and other important programs is crucial to informing the broader debate around Alberta’s possible withdrawal from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP).
- Due to Alberta’s relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes, and younger population, Albertans contribute significantly more to federal revenues than they receive back in federal spending.
- From 1981 to 2022, Alberta workers contributed 14.4 percent (on average) of the total CPP premiums paid while retirees in the province received only 10.0 percent of the payments. Albertans net contribution was $53.6 billion over the period—approximately six times greater than British Columbia’s net contribution (the only other net contributor).
- Given current demographic projections, immigration patterns, and Alberta’s long history of leading the provinces in economic growth and income levels, Alberta’s central role in funding national programs is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
- Due to Albertans’ disproportionate net contribution to the CPP, the current base CPP contribution rate would likely have to increase to remain sustainable if Alberta withdrew from the plan. Similarly, Alberta’s stand-alone rate would be lower than the current CPP rate.
Tegan Hill
Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute
Alberta
Alberta Institute urging Premier Smith to follow Saskatchewan and drop Industrial Carbon Tax

From the Alberta Institute
Axe Alberta’s Industrial Carbon Tax
Aside from tariffs, carbon taxes have been the key topic of the election campaign so far, with Mark Carney announcing that the Liberals would copy the Conservatives’ long-standing policy to axe the tax – but with a big caveat.
You see, it’s misleading to talk about the carbon tax as if it were a single policy.
In fact, that’s what the Liberals would like you to think because it helps them hide all the other carbon taxes they’ve forced on Canadians and on the Provinces.
Broadly speaking, there are actually four types of carbon taxes in place in Canada:
- A federal consumer carbon tax
- A federal industrial carbon tax
- Various provincial consumer carbon taxes
- Various provincial industrial carbon taxes
Alberta was actually the first jurisdiction anywhere in North America to introduce a carbon tax in 2007, when Premier Ed Stelmach introduced a provincial industrial carbon tax.
Then, as we all know, the Alberta NDP introduced a provincial consumer carbon tax in 2017.
The provincial consumer carbon tax was short-lived, as the UCP repealed it in 2019.
But, unfortunately, the UCP failed to repeal the provincial industrial carbon tax at the same time.
Worse, by then, the federal Liberals had introduced a federal consumer carbon tax and a federal industrial carbon tax as well!
Flash forward to 2025, and the political calculus has changed dramatically.
Mark Carney might only be promising to get rid of the federal consumer carbon tax, but Pierre Poilievre is promising to get rid of both the federal consumer carbon tax and the federal industrial carbon tax.
This is a clear opportunity, and yesterday, Scott Moe jumped on it.
He announced that Saskatchewan will also be repealing its provincial industrial carbon tax.
Saskatchewan never had a provincial consumer carbon tax, which means that, within just a few weeks, people in Saskatchewan could be paying ZERO carbon tax of ANY kind.
Alberta needs to follow Saskatchewan’s lead.
The Alberta government should immediately repeal Alberta’s provincial industrial carbon tax.
There’s no excuse for our provincial government to continue burdening our industries with unnecessary costs that hurt competitiveness and deter investment.
These taxes make it harder for businesses to thrive, grow, and create jobs, especially when other provinces are taking action to eliminate similar policies.
Premier Danielle Smith must act now and eliminate the provincial industrial carbon tax in Alberta.
If you agree, please sign our petition calling on the Alberta government to Axe Alberta’s Industrial Carbon Tax today:
After you’ve signed, please send the petition to your friends, family, and wider network, so that every Albertan can have their voice heard!
– The Alberta Institute Team
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