Alberta
Alberta fiscal update shows improved surplus but raises caution flags about debt

From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation
Author: Kris Sims
Fiscal update shows accounting surplus of $2.9 billion
Provincial debt projected to be $86.1 billion
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is cautioning the Alberta government for its increased borrowing and looming government union contract demands in response to the first quarter fiscal update.
“It’s very good news to see the provincial surplus increasing, but taxpayers are concerned the debt is still going up,” said Kris Sims, CTF Alberta Director. “Premier Danielle Smith did the right thing by passing a law to save money in the Heritage Fund and now the government needs to deliver its promised income tax cut.”
The Alberta government released its first quarter fiscal update Thursday.
The provincial surplus is forecasted at $2.9 billion, which is a $2.5-billion increase from February’s thin forecast surplus of $367 million.
The provincial debt is forecasted to hit $86.1 billion by the end of this fiscal year, up $4.2 billion from the last fiscal year.
Interest on the debt continues to be a challenge, with the government estimated to spend about $3.2 billion on interest charges this fiscal year.
Government revenue is expected to reach $76.2 billion, which is $2.7 billion higher than estimated in Budget 2024. Income tax revenue is expected to be $513 million higher than estimated in Budget 2024.
The government is spending $73.2 billion, which is $101 million higher than estimated in Budget 2024.
Finance Minister Nate Horner raised the issue of government union contract negotiations this happening fall.
“Collective bargaining negotiations are underway with thousands of public sector workers, including teachers and nurses and we’ve promised to cut personal income taxes to save Albertans $1.4 billion each year,” Horner said in a news conference.
“Even though this is an improved surplus, the government doesn’t have cash to spare, so it can’t be blowing the budget on big pay hikes for government unions this fall,” Sims said. “The Alberta government needs to deliver on its promise to cut income taxes.”
Alberta
Albertans have contributed $53.6 billion to the retirement of Canadians in other provinces

From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill and Nathaniel Li
Albertans contributed $53.6 billion more to CPP then retirees in Alberta received from it from 1981 to 2022
Albertans’ net contribution to the Canada Pension Plan —meaning the amount Albertans paid into the program over and above what retirees in Alberta
received in CPP payments—was more than six times as much as any other province at $53.6 billion from 1981 to 2022, finds a new report published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“Albertan workers have been helping to fund the retirement of Canadians from coast to coast for decades, and Canadians ought to know that without Alberta, the Canada Pension Plan would look much different,” said Tegan Hill, director of Alberta policy at the Fraser Institute and co-author of Understanding Alberta’s Role in National Programs, Including the Canada Pension Plan.
From 1981 to 2022, Alberta workers contributed 14.4 per cent (on average) of the total CPP premiums paid—Canada’s compulsory, government- operated retirement pension plan—while retirees in the province received only 10.0 per cent of the payments. Alberta’s net contribution over that period was $53.6 billion.
Crucially, only residents in two provinces—Alberta and British Columbia—paid more into the CPP than retirees in those provinces received in benefits, and Alberta’s contribution was six times greater than BC’s.
The reason Albertans have paid such an outsized contribution to federal and national programs, including the CPP, in recent years is because of the province’s relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes, and younger population.
As such, if Alberta withdrew from the CPP, Alberta workers could expect to receive the same retirement benefits but at a lower cost (i.e. lower payroll tax) than other Canadians, while the payroll tax would likely have to increase for the rest of the country (excluding Quebec) to maintain the same benefits.
“Given current demographic projections, immigration patterns, and Alberta’s long history of leading the provinces in economic growth, Albertan workers will likely continue to pay more into it than Albertan retirees get back from it,” Hill said.
Understanding Alberta’s Role in National Programs, Including the Canada Pension Plan
- Understanding Alberta’s role in national income transfers and other important programs is crucial to informing the broader debate around Alberta’s possible withdrawal from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP).
- Due to Alberta’s relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes, and younger population, Albertans contribute significantly more to federal revenues than they receive back in federal spending.
- From 1981 to 2022, Alberta workers contributed 14.4 percent (on average) of the total CPP premiums paid while retirees in the province received only 10.0 percent of the payments. Albertans net contribution was $53.6 billion over the period—approximately six times greater than British Columbia’s net contribution (the only other net contributor).
- Given current demographic projections, immigration patterns, and Alberta’s long history of leading the provinces in economic growth and income levels, Alberta’s central role in funding national programs is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
- Due to Albertans’ disproportionate net contribution to the CPP, the current base CPP contribution rate would likely have to increase to remain sustainable if Alberta withdrew from the plan. Similarly, Alberta’s stand-alone rate would be lower than the current CPP rate.
Tegan Hill
Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute
Alberta
Alberta Institute urging Premier Smith to follow Saskatchewan and drop Industrial Carbon Tax

From the Alberta Institute
Axe Alberta’s Industrial Carbon Tax
Aside from tariffs, carbon taxes have been the key topic of the election campaign so far, with Mark Carney announcing that the Liberals would copy the Conservatives’ long-standing policy to axe the tax – but with a big caveat.
You see, it’s misleading to talk about the carbon tax as if it were a single policy.
In fact, that’s what the Liberals would like you to think because it helps them hide all the other carbon taxes they’ve forced on Canadians and on the Provinces.
Broadly speaking, there are actually four types of carbon taxes in place in Canada:
- A federal consumer carbon tax
- A federal industrial carbon tax
- Various provincial consumer carbon taxes
- Various provincial industrial carbon taxes
Alberta was actually the first jurisdiction anywhere in North America to introduce a carbon tax in 2007, when Premier Ed Stelmach introduced a provincial industrial carbon tax.
Then, as we all know, the Alberta NDP introduced a provincial consumer carbon tax in 2017.
The provincial consumer carbon tax was short-lived, as the UCP repealed it in 2019.
But, unfortunately, the UCP failed to repeal the provincial industrial carbon tax at the same time.
Worse, by then, the federal Liberals had introduced a federal consumer carbon tax and a federal industrial carbon tax as well!
Flash forward to 2025, and the political calculus has changed dramatically.
Mark Carney might only be promising to get rid of the federal consumer carbon tax, but Pierre Poilievre is promising to get rid of both the federal consumer carbon tax and the federal industrial carbon tax.
This is a clear opportunity, and yesterday, Scott Moe jumped on it.
He announced that Saskatchewan will also be repealing its provincial industrial carbon tax.
Saskatchewan never had a provincial consumer carbon tax, which means that, within just a few weeks, people in Saskatchewan could be paying ZERO carbon tax of ANY kind.
Alberta needs to follow Saskatchewan’s lead.
The Alberta government should immediately repeal Alberta’s provincial industrial carbon tax.
There’s no excuse for our provincial government to continue burdening our industries with unnecessary costs that hurt competitiveness and deter investment.
These taxes make it harder for businesses to thrive, grow, and create jobs, especially when other provinces are taking action to eliminate similar policies.
Premier Danielle Smith must act now and eliminate the provincial industrial carbon tax in Alberta.
If you agree, please sign our petition calling on the Alberta government to Axe Alberta’s Industrial Carbon Tax today:
After you’ve signed, please send the petition to your friends, family, and wider network, so that every Albertan can have their voice heard!
– The Alberta Institute Team
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