Alberta
Alberta and B.C. budgets represent two different approaches to government finances
From the Fraser Institute
By Grady Munro and Tegan Hill
” for every $1 of additional revenue enjoyed by both provinces, the Eby government increased spending by more than $6 compared to 79 cents for the Smith government. “
In its recent budget, the Alberta government promised a new approach to provincial finances, with spending restraint and limited debt accumulation. While there’s still work to do, this is a far better approach than the reckless spending and massive debt accumulation of the British Columbia government.
The Smith government projects a $367 million surplus in 2024/25, followed by two more surpluses of $1.4 billion in 2025/26 and $2.6 billion in 2026/27. The government plans to use these surpluses largely to pay down debt, so although provincial net debt (financial assets minus liabilities) is expected to rise slightly in 2024/25 due to increased long-term capital spending (e.g. schools and highways), the debt is projected to decrease 4.1 per cent ($1.7 billion) from 2023/24 to 2026/27.
Alberta’s strong fiscal outlook is largely driven by historically high resource revenues. But while the government plans to increase program spending (total spending minus debt interest costs) nominally over the next three years, spending will grow at a slower rate than population growth and inflation—meaning spending will decline on an inflation-adjusted per-person basis.
The Smith government still must better align spending with stable revenues, but this is an important step in the right direction.
By contrast, B.C.’s 2024 budget projects a $7.9 billion deficit in 2024/25 followed by deficits of $7.8 billion in 2025/26 and $6.3 billion in 2026/27. These deficits, combined with borrowing for capital projects, will drive a projected $55.1 billion (74.7 per cent) increase in provincial net debt from 2023/24 to 2026/27. As a result, the level of net debt projected in 2026/27 ($128.8 billion) is nearly triple the level recorded in 2019/20 ($46.9 billion).
These deficits are due to a substantial increase in provincial spending by the Eby government. Indeed, similar to Alberta, B.C. has recently enjoyed an unexpected surge in revenues, but unlike the Smith government, the Eby government has shown no spending restraint.
From 2023/24 to 2025/26, revenues in B.C. will be a projected $2.0 billion higher than the government projected in last year’s budget, yet the plan for spending over that same period increased by $13.2 billion. For comparison, the Smith government also increased spending in these years relative to its 2023 budget, but did so by $2.1 billion less than the increase in revenues.
In other words, for every $1 of additional revenue enjoyed by both provinces, the Eby government increased spending by more than $6 compared to 79 cents for the Smith government.
The consequences of B.C.’s approach are clear. By spending far outside its means, the Eby government will saddle future generations of British Columbians with tens of billions more in debt that must be financed through taxes. For perspective, debt interest payments will nearly cost a projected $1,000 per British Columbian by 2026/27—that’s taxpayer money no longer available for programs or services. Moreover, continued deficits weaken the government’s ability to deal with future challenges (such as an economic downturn) without taking on more debt and driving up interest costs.
The Alberta and B.C. budgets provide examples of two different approaches to government finances. While there’s more to be done, Alberta is moving in the right direction to help prevent debt accumulation. On the other hand, B.C. is massively increasing spending and debt, to the detriment of British Columbians now and in the future.
Authors:
Better, faster, more affordable auto insurance
Alberta’s government is introducing a new auto insurance system that will provide better and faster services to Albertans while reducing auto insurance premiums.
After hearing from more than 16,000 Albertans through an online survey about their priorities for auto insurance policies, Alberta’s government is introducing a new privately delivered, care-focused auto insurance system.
Right now, insurance in the province is not affordable or care focused. Despite high premiums, Albertans injured in collisions do not get the timely medical care and income support they need in a system that is complex to navigate. When fully implemented, Alberta’s new auto insurance system will deliver better and faster care for those involved in collisions, and Albertans will see cost savings up to $400 per year.
“Albertans have been clear they need an auto insurance system that provides better, faster care and is more affordable. When it’s implemented, our new privately delivered, care-centred insurance system will put the focus on Albertans’ recovery, providing more effective support and will deliver lower rates.”
“High auto insurance rates put strain on Albertans. By shifting to a system that offers improved benefits and support, we are providing better and faster care to Albertans, with lower costs.”
Albertans who suffer injuries due to a collision currently wait months for a simple claim to be resolved and can wait years for claims related to more serious and life-changing injuries to addressed. Additionally, the medical and financial benefits they receive often expire before they’re fully recovered.
Under the new system, Albertans who suffer catastrophic injuries will receive treatment and care for the rest of their lives. Those who sustain serious injuries will receive treatment until they are fully recovered. These changes mirror and build upon the Saskatchewan insurance model, where at-fault drivers can be sued for pain and suffering damages if they are convicted of a criminal offence, such as impaired driving or dangerous driving, or conviction of certain offenses under the Traffic Safety Act.
Work on this new auto insurance system will require legislation in the spring of 2025. In order to reconfigure auto insurance policies for 3.4 million Albertans, auto insurance companies need time to create and implement the new system. Alberta’s government expects the new system to be fully implemented by January 2027.
In the interim, starting in January 2025, the good driver rate cap will be adjusted to a 7.5% increase due to high legal costs, increasing vehicle damage repair costs and natural disaster costs. This protects good drivers from significant rate increases while ensuring that auto insurance providers remain financially viable in Alberta.
Albertans have been clear that they still want premiums to be based on risk. Bad drivers will continue to pay higher premiums than good drivers.
By providing significantly enhanced medical, rehabilitation and income support benefits, this system supports Albertans injured in collisions while reducing the impact of litigation costs on the amount that Albertans pay for their insurance.
“Keeping more money in Albertans’ pockets is one of the best ways to address the rising cost of living. This shift to a care-first automobile insurance system will do just that by helping lower premiums for people across the province.”
Quick facts
- Alberta’s government commissioned two auto insurance reports, which showed that legal fees and litigation costs tied to the province’s current system significantly increase premiums.
- A 2023 report by MNP shows
Alberta maintains a balanced budget while ensuring pressures from population growth are being addressed.
Alberta faces rising risks, including ongoing resource volatility, geopolitical instability and rising pressures at home. With more than 450,000 people moving to Alberta in the last three years, the province has allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to address these pressures and ensure Albertans continue to be supported. Alberta’s government is determined to make every dollar go further with targeted and responsible spending on the priorities of Albertans.
The province is forecasting a $4.6 billion surplus at the end of 2024-25, up from the $2.9 billion first quarter forecast and $355 million from budget, due mainly to higher revenue from personal income taxes and non-renewable resources.
Given the current significant uncertainty in global geopolitics and energy markets, Alberta’s government must continue to make prudent choices to meet its responsibilities, including ongoing bargaining for thousands of public sector workers, fast-tracking school construction, cutting personal income taxes and ensuring Alberta’s surging population has access to high-quality health care, education and other public services.
“These are challenging times, but I believe Alberta is up to the challenge. By being intentional with every dollar, we can boost our prosperity and quality of life now and in the future.”
Midway through 2024-25, the province has stepped up to boost support to Albertans this fiscal year through key investments, including:
- $716 million to Health for physician compensation incentives and to help Alberta Health Services provide services to a growing and aging population.
- $125 million to address enrollment growth pressures in Alberta schools.
- $847 million for disaster and emergency assistance, including:
- $647 million to fight the Jasper wildfires
- $163 million for the Wildfire Disaster Recovery Program
- $5 million to support the municipality of Jasper (half to help with tourism recovery)
- $12 million to match donations to the Canadian Red Cross
- $20 million for emergency evacuation payments to evacuees in communities impacted by wildfires
- $240 million more for Seniors, Community and Social Services to support social support programs.
Looking forward, the province has adjusted its forecast for the price of oil to US$74 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate. It expects to earn more for its crude oil, with a narrowing of the light-heavy differential around US$14 per barrel, higher demand for heavier crude grades and a growing export capacity through the Trans Mountain pipeline. Despite these changes, Alberta still risks running a deficit in the coming fiscal year should oil prices continue to drop below $70 per barrel.
After a 4.4 per cent surge in the 2024 census year, Alberta’s population growth is expected to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2025, lower than the first quarter forecast of 3.2 per cent growth because of reduced immigration and non-permanent residents targets by the federal government.
Revenue
Revenue for 2024-25 is forecast at $77.9 billion, an increase of $4.4 billion from Budget 2024, including:
- $16.6 billion forecast from personal income taxes, up from $15.6 billion at budget.
- $20.3 billion forecast from non-renewable resource revenue, up from $17.3 billion at budget.
Expense
Expense for 2024-25 is forecast at $73.3 billion, an increase of $143 million from Budget 2024.
Surplus cash
After calculations and adjustments, $2.9 billion in surplus cash is forecast.
- $1.4 billion or half will pay debt coming due.
- The other half, or $1.4 billion, will be put into the Alberta Fund, which can be spent on further debt repayment, deposited into the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund and/or spent on one-time initiatives.
Contingency
Of the $2 billion contingency included in Budget 2024, a preliminary allocation of $1.7 billion is forecast.
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund
The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund grew in the second quarter to a market value of $24.3 billion as of Sept. 30, 2024, up from $23.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.
- The fund earned a 3.7 per cent return from July to September with a net investment income of $616 million, up from the 2.1 per cent return during the first quarter.
Debt
Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast at $84 billion as of March 31, 2025, $3.8 billion less than estimated in the budget because the higher surplus has lowered borrowing requirements.
- Debt servicing costs are forecast at $3.2 billion, down $216 million from budget.
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