Alberta
A Matter of Fact: Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault’s future view of Canada’s oil and gas sector is unrealistic
Canadian Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault, speaks at the China pavilion during the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP15) in Montreal, Quebec, on December 14, 2022. Getty Images photo
From the Canadian Energy Centre Ltd.
Canada could play a key role in lowering global emissions by unlocking our LNG industry and helping Asian countries replace coal
Federal Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault is continuing to plot a painful course toward a short-sighted phase out of Canada’s world class oil and gas sector based on an unrealistic view of world’s future energy mix.
In an interview with Euractiv, Guilbeault said he supports the phase out of unabated fossil fuels, those without the technology to minimize emissions, by 2050 to align with the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Scenario, a path that is largely out of touch with the current global reality.
Based on that increasingly unlikely scenario, the minister said he anticipates Canada’s oil and gas sector will follow suit with a 50% to 75% reduction in the production of oil and gas by 2050, which would be devastating for our economy, hurt our economic allies, and make little to no progress towards reducing global emissions.
Here are the facts.
Fact: The IEA’s Net Zero Scenario is largely aspirational, not practical
Guilbeault’s vision of a massive global reduction of fossil fuel usage is growing even less likely amid a lingering energy crisis prompted by several years of declining investment in oil and gas followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The fact is, this year the world will use more oil and more coal than any time in human history.
According to the IEA’s latest short-term outlook, global oil use will hit a record high of 102 million barrels per day this year and is expected to grow to 106 million barrels per day by 2028. Last week, OPEC forecasted that by 2045, global oil demand will reach 110 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, demand for natural gas, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) is soaring.
By 2040, global LNG demand – driven primarily by growing Asian economies – is expected to reach 700 million tonnes, a more than 75 per cent increase from 2022. Demand for LNG is expected to outpace supply by the middle of this decade.
Relying on the IEA’s Net Zero scenario, Guilbeault said he believes oil use will decline to between 25-30 million barrels per day, a 75 per cent reduction. Rapid deployment of renewables, he said, would fill that void despite some significant hurdles that could hinder a sweeping transition.
The bottom line is pretty clear. In the IEA’s most likely scenario, oil and gas will still account for 47 per cent of the global energy mix in 2050, a reduction of 5 per cent from 2021. While the share of renewables will more than double, it is still expected only to account for 29 per cent of the world’s energy mix in 2050.
Fact: A rapid phase out of oil and gas would hurt Canada and its allies
Canada’s oil and gas sector is a critical part of our economy, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs from coast-to-coast, including thousands of jobsin manufacturing, environmental, and financial services tied to the industry, especially in Ontario and Quebec.
A recent analysis by commodity data firm S&P Global focused specifically on the oil sands suggests that efforts to meet federal emissions targets for 2030 would likely force the industry to slash production by up to 1.3 million barrels per day.
According to the analysis, that could result in the elimination of between 5,400 and 9,500 jobs. With just over 54,000 oil and gas extraction jobs in Canada, that would mean the elimination of as much as 17% of the workforce.
In addition to jobs, the industry is also an economic bulwark, generating $168 billion in GDP in 2021, about 7.2 per cent of Canada’s economic activity. Oil and gas also accounted for nearly a third of Canada’s exports in 2021, injecting $140 billon into the economy.
Amid the ongoing global energy crisis, some of Canada’s international allies have turned to Canada to be a potential key supplier as they look for stable and responsible suppliers to replace Russian oil and gas.
The leaders of Germany and Japan made direct appeals to Canada to supply more LNG to help meet their energy needs.
Yamanouchi Kanji, Japan’s ambassador to Canada, made it clear that some of our Asian allies see Canada as a key player in the world’s future energy, particularly when it comes to LNG.
“The world is waiting for Canada,” he said earlier this year. “Canada can and should play a very important role to support the energy situation not only in Japan and South Korea, but the world.”
Fact: Reducing global emissions starts with Canadian natural gas
If Canada is truly serious about tackling global greenhouse gas emissions, we could make a much bigger impact by supplying energy-hungry Asian countries with some of the cleanest LNG on the planet to replace coal.
Climate change is a global issue, not a local one.
Despite being one of the world’s largest energy producers, Canada is still only responsible for about 1.6 per cent of total global emissions.
Developing Asian counties, particularly China, have turned to coal to help power their growing economies. A switch to natural gas to generate power reduces emissions by 50 per cent on average, according to the IEA. Canadian natural gas shipped as LNG could perform even better, reducing emissions from coal by about 65 per cent, according to Energy for a Secure Future.
With analysts expecting world LNG demand to double over the next two decades, Canada could make a real measurable impact on lowering global emissions by unlocking its LNG potential.
A recent study by Wood Mackenzie found that Canadian LNG exports could reduce net emissions in Asia by 188 million tonnes per year through 2050. Put another way, that would be the annual equivalent of removing the emissions of all vehicles on Canadian roads, or wiping out nearly three time’s B.C.’s total emissions.
Meanwhile, a coalition of six companies representing 95 per cent of Canada’s oil sand production have jointly committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The Pathways Alliance is looking to harness emerging technology like carbon capture and storage as well as small modular nuclear reactors to reach that target.
The reality is that if Canada significantly curtails its oil and gas industry, other national producers, some of which lack Canada’s commitment to democratic ideals and the environment, will fill that void. This could see bad actors like Russia continue to maintain a strategic and economic advantage over Europe by maintaining European reliance on its energy.
Fact: Phasing out oil and gas would hurt Indigenous communities
Over the last decade, Indigenous communities have emerged as key players in Canada’s energy sector, allowing First Nations in many cases to create intergenerational opportunity for their people.
From pipelines to LNG terminals, dozens of Indigenous communities have entered into ownership agreements on major oil and gas projects.
In B.C., 16 First Nations will acquire a 10 per cent stake in the Coastal GasLink pipeline once it’s completed later this year. In Alberta, another 23 First Nation and and Métis communities are now approximately 12 per cent owners of seven operating Enbridge oil sands pipelines, the largest Indigenous energy transaction ever in North America.
And in northwest B.C., the Haisla Nation is 50 per cent owner of the proposed Cedar LNG project, which would be the first Indigenous-owned LNG terminal in the world.
“When Europeans, Asians and Americans think of Canada’s Indigenous peoples, they often think we oppose all energy development. We aren’t victims of development. Increasingly we are partners and even owners in major projects,” Haisla Nation Chief Councillor Crystal Smith said during an April press conference after leading a delegation of Indigenous leaders to meet key international diplomats.
Indigenous employment in Canada’s oil and gas sector has continued to grow, rising by more than 20 per cent since 2014 to reach an estimated 10,400 jobs in 2020.
Indigenous-owned businesses also benefit from the industry, with three major projects – the Trans Mountain Expansion, Coastal GasLink, and LNG Canada – spending some $9 billion with Indigenous- and locally-owned businesses.
From COVID Chronicles
It confirms big problems with public health and provides a roadmap for how to do it right the next time around; let justice and healing begin.
The Government of Alberta has released a report following an investigation into the province’s response to the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The announcement can be found in this X post from, Eric Bouchard, a member of Alberta’s legislative assembly.
The report itself can be found here.
This is a report that is well-worth reading from beginning to end. The government identified numerous major problems with the handling of the pandemic response by Alberta Health Services. It is important to note that the current government in Alberta is not responsible for how the province responded to COVID-19. That responsibility falls upon the shoulders of the previous government. Thankfully, the current government is interested in knowing the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. They also believe in being transparent with the public that they serve.
One of my biggest concerns from the report is identified in the opening letter where it states, “Our quest for answers was impeded by barriers, including reluctance from key stakeholders to engage with the Task Force’s mandate“. Shame on those involved with developing and implementing COVID-19 policies that failed to cooperate with officials from a sitting government that launched this investigation for the wellbeing of the public. The lack of transparency from whomever these key stakeholders are is unacceptable.
What I appreciate most about the report is that it is constructively critical, providing a path forward, that includes refocusing the mandate of public health services back onto the public as the primary clientele, as opposed to acting in the service of pharmaceutical companies. It serves as a blueprint to guide future responses. The path forward is based largely on traditional best practices that were established by truly following the science and forged in the successful management of historical outbreaks. It is highly reminiscent of the national pandemic response plans that existed in 2020; the ones that were supposed to be implemented for COVID-19 but that were thrown out within days of the pandemic being declared.
I can’t help but wonder how many lives could have been saved, how many hospitalizations could have been prevented, and how much healthier our population and current economies would be if this far more appropriate, science-based plan would have been implemented back in 2020.
This report from the Government of Alberta provides a precedent for the world as overwhelming numbers of people wake up and realize the need for massive reforms within public health.
Further, the report validates many of the concerns that a lot of people had about the response to COVID-19. The totality of evidence highlights how egregious it was to have vilified critical thinkers who simply wanted to engage in robust discussions out of genuine concerns for others and not fall victim to propaganda. Firing people who didn’t want to be coerced into having experimental medical interventions and debatable policies thrust upon them, de-licensing and disciplining independent-thinking health care professionals, and censoring experts under the nefarious disguise of ‘combating misinformation’ and ‘fact checking’; THEY WERE ALL EGREGIOUS WRONGS.
There should be fallout from a damning report like this. The gross mismanagement of COVID-19 has created a huge hot mess. The path forward starts with acknowledging this. Then we need to plot a course to navigate through this mess and thoroughly clean it up. These are essential if there is ever to be healing for all those that were victimized by power brokers that blindly followed propaganda and bought into the hatred and divisive tactics that were passionately modelled by the prime minister on down.
Building on this report, I am honoured to have been invited to speak at an upcoming event in Alberta. It is An Injection of Truth: Healing Humanity.
My talk will dovetail with this report from the Government of Alberta. The event is going to focus on the four pillars of healing. My presentation will start with ripping off the scab and exposing lies from public health agencies that contributed to a myriad of problems within the pandemic response. It will transition into providing some practical recommendations with respect to where we go from here.
Please consider posting your thoughts about this report in the comments section. Do you agree with aspects? Disagree with others? Were criticisms too light or too harsh? Were key issues missed? What do you think about the ideas for moving forward? This is opportunity to provide feedback. You have a sitting government that is showing a willingness to listen to all parties and perspectives. I will share feedback with the Members of the Legislative Assembly that I will be meeting in Alberta on March 3rd.
Alberta
The Davidson Report critiquing the Government of Alberta’s COVID-19 pandemic response finally released: Dr David Speicher
Courageous Truth
Scientific facts, personal views and life’s journey
The Dr. Gary Davidson report has finally been released by the Government of Alberta and confirms big problems with public health and provides a roadmap for managing future pandemics.
Nearly six months after Dr. Gary Davidson’s report was submitted to Premier Danielle Smith, it was publicly released quietly by the Government of Alberta on their website.
The only public statement about the report was on Eric Bouchard’s X account: “Dr. Gary Davidson’s report brings Alberta one step closer to the truth. https://open.alberta.ca/publications/albertas-covid-19-pandemic-response”. Eric followed up by saying “Alberta now has a tremendous opportunity to right many of the wrongs that took place over the last few years. We must work together to heal humanity and to earn back the trust of all Albertans.” and “I am committed to working with Albertans to ensure that the historical pain caused by the response to COVID-19 does not repeat. Thank you, Dr. Davidson, for your incredible work to get this report out. I look forward to hearing Dr. Davidson live on March 3, 2025.”
Purpose:
On November 14, 2022, the Premier of Alberta established a Task Force under the Health Quality Council of Alberta to examine the quality, use, interpretation, and flow of information and data that informed Alberta’s pandemic response to COVID-19 and provide recommendations on how to better manage a future pandemic.
This report critiques the Government of Alberta’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic between 2020 and 2022. The report addresses 9 areas: governance and flow of information, regulatory bodies (e.g. the role of the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta), modelling, non-pharmaceutical interventions, masking, testing, infection-acquired immunity, vaccines, and therapeutics. The task force attempted to remain neutral and examine information on both sides of the narrative. However, there was a “fundamental lack of transparency and willingness to reveal information and discuss decisions and actions taken by AHS during the pandemic.” and the task force found that there was “a lack of willingness on the part of AHS officials to cooperate with the Task Force in our requests for data and information.” [Pg 40-41]
Chapter 6: Testing
As a molecular virologist with expertise in the detection and surveillance of infectious diseases, the task force asked me to provide information and guidance on PCR, rapid antigen testing (RAT), and serological testing for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 during the pandemic. The report provides excellent background and the methods used to test people for SARS-CoV-2.
Unfortunately, I continue to see misinformation spread about the reliability of the PCR test, including the number of cycles and “97% false-positives”. Therefore, I will be providing a deep dive into the PCR test over the coming weeks, including presenting insight on one legal case where I served as an expert witness that asked whether or not a PCR test for COVID is a “genetic test” according to the Ontario labour code. I would be happy to answer any questions that people may have.
From The Davidson Report, I would like to highlight two key issues. The first is the classification of a COVID case being determined by a PCR-positive test result driving a “casedemic” rather than a “pandemic” and the second is regarding the millions of dollars wasted on unused PCR reagents and RATs.
It is important to note the following recommendations made regarding testing (P174):
- RT-PCR represents an excellent high-sensitivity test to aid in accurate diagnoses of symptomatic people – if they are used for the intended purpose and at optimal Ct values (vs. Ct values at “high positive” cut-offs).
- Rapid tests with reasonable accuracy should not be used for screening the general population but could be used as an additional diagnostic tool, where clinically indicated.
- We recommend that future pandemic responses prioritize minimizing severe disease and mortality over extensive case detection. Specifically, Alberta should focus on developing a screening tool to help estimate individual risk. This approach will optimize resource use by directing testing capacity, which can be appropriately directed by evidence-based practices, such as testing symptomatic individuals, those whose management may be influenced by test results, and for specific surveillance scenarios.
- We recommend that levels of immunity be gauged using a multi-antibody serological and/or mucosal assay that accounts for both pre-existing immunity as well as the presence of immune cells with the potential for cross-protection.
- All tests should also be professionally administered and sufficiently sensitive to detect low antibody levels while sufficiently specific to distinguish between target and non-target antibodies. This also applies to laboratory tests used to identify specific respiratory viruses. Individual risk estimates can then be used to inform individual needs for protection either through the use of personal protective measures and/or vaccination.
- Without being linked to a set of standardized clinical criteria, we recommend against the use of PCR tests as the sole criteria for a case definition. A confirmed case should include a pre-determined profile of signs and/or symptoms AND a positive test for the infection of concern PLUS any relevant patient history and confirmed epidemiological information.
- Ensure that local surveillance data are used and interpreted when determining strategy and policy.
Final Thoughts
Regarding the report, I think that it is a very well-written critique of the Government of Alberta’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is not a final conclusive report. This is a good start to opening the door for some important deep governmental discussions that need to happen, including diving deeper into the harms caused by the COVID-19 modRNA vaccines, like the DNA contamination and the presence of the SV40 promoter-enhancer nuclear localization sequences, the vast number of vaccine-injured people, and the increased risk of turbo cancer. While I am disappointed that the Government of Alberta, namely Premier Smith, tried to bury this report by sitting on it for six months and quietly releasing the report without a proper press conference on the week of the USA inauguration I am relieved to see that the report was finally made public. The government’s attempt to bury the report shows that this is indeed a damning report and the government’s response could have been much better. However, I hope that this report will bring about government transparency and begin that well-needed conversation so that our society can indeed heal.
Healing Humanity is the theme of the next An Injection of Truth happening on March 3, 2025 in Calgary, Alberta. During the event I will be sharing on the numerous ways the COVID-19 vaccines can potentially cause harm and what can be done to heal from those harms. I will share the stage with several other prominent scientists.
- Dr. Byram Bridle who has also shared his insights on The Davidson Report and will be “exposing lies from public health agencies that contributed to a myriad of problems within the pandemic response.”
- Dr. Gary Davidson will be presenting on the contents the report by the Alberta COVID-19 Pandemic Data Review Task Force.
- Dr. Denis Rancourt will provide a deep dive into the all-cause mortality.
- Dr. David Martin will definitely be a presenter that no one will want to miss.
In closing, I encourage everyone to read through The Davidson Report and post your thoughts on the report in the comments section. What did you like or disagree with? What would you like to see different next time? I would be happy to take your comments to Calgary in March 2025. I also hope that this will be one of many governmental task forces that take a deep dive into the governmental response to the pandemic. We desperately need one for each province and at the federal level.
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