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Alberta

$6.5 billion investment! World’s first ‘net-zero’ ethyelene plant announced for Fort Saskatchewan

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Dow Path2Zero investment in Alberta: Joint statement

Premier Danielle Smith, Minister of Energy and Minerals Brian Jean and Minister of Jobs, Economy and Trade Matt Jones issued the following statement on the Dow Path2Zero Fort Saskatchewan project:

“We are thrilled that Dow has chosen Alberta for the world’s first net-zero Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions integrated ethylene cracker and derivatives site.

“Fort Saskatchewan Path2Zero, located in Alberta’s Industrial Heartland, will play an important role in expanding Alberta’s natural gas industry, creating thousands of jobs, diversifying our economy and positioning our province as a global hub for petrochemicals.

“At nearly $9 billion, this project is one of the largest private sector investments in Alberta’s history. At peak, this world-class petrochemical facility will create about 6,000 jobs during construction and 400 to 500 full-time jobs when operational. Path2Zero will produce and supply approximately three million metric tonnes of certified low- to zero-carbon emissions polyethylene and ethylene derivatives for customers around the globe while further establishing Alberta as a world leader in emissions-reducing technology like carbon capture, utilization and storage.

“This announcement by Dow is indicative of Alberta’s commitment to attracting investment and creating good jobs while growing and diversifying our economy. Programs like Energy and Minerals’ Alberta Petrochemicals Incentive Program (APIP) and the cross-ministry concierge investment support led by Jobs, Economy and Trade have been integral in Dow’s decision to choose Alberta for this innovative facility. Through APIP, we are issuing a 12 per cent grant, which is approximately $1.8 billion, to help move this investment and technology forward. In addition, we are pleased that Alberta’s skilled workforce, low corporate tax rates, stable industrial carbon pricing system and commitment to support innovation made Alberta the most attractive choice.

“Dow’s final investment decision is proof of the Alberta Advantage, and it will be a major stepping-stone toward meeting our goal of being a global top 10 petrochemical producer. This decision proves what we have been saying for years: Alberta is the best place to invest and do business. We have the workforce, know-how and natural gas feedstock to be a world leader in carbon-neutral petrochemicals.

“This is a huge win for Alberta’s petrochemical sector and clearly demonstrates our business-friendly policies are attracting job-creating investment across the province. We look forward to the beginning of construction in 2024 and are proud to be partnering with Dow to transition away from emissions while decarbonizing petrochemical products and growing our energy industry.”

This is a news release from the Government of Alberta.

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Alberta

Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

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Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:

“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.

“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.

“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.

“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.

“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.

“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”

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Alberta

Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.

Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.

In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.

Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.

The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.

Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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