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5 year payback estimate for EV battery-maker subsidies off by 15 years! – PBO

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From the Fraser Institute

Ottawa’s super-charged EV obsession reaches new heights

Every week, it seems, we get another report revealing the deep thoughtlessness and fiscal recklessness of Ottawa’s electric car and electric-car battery fixation. For example, the Parliamentary Budget Officer recently asked how long it will take for the federal government to see a return on the $28.2 billion of production subsidies to EV battery-makers Stellantis and Volkswagen. The answer—about four times longer than government originally claimed.

Remember, Prime Minister Trudeau said the “full economic impact of the project will be equal to the value of government investment in less than five years.” But according to the PBO, it will take 20 years, not five years, to merely recover the money the government “invested” on behalf of Canadians. There’s no actual profit to be had at that point.

Why the discrepancy?

To figure that out, the PBO looked into the government’s modelling used to generate its “five-year” payback scenario and found that the government’s estimate included numerous assumptions about other investments (and assumed production increases) outside the direct battery-making process including assumed capability in battery-material production, which is shorthand for mining and refining of critical metals and minerals needed to make EV batteries. Of course, this is a notoriously uncertain proposition given Canada’s dismal performance in bringing new mining-related infrastructure projects with EV-battery potential to fruition.

In fact, as the PBO notes, of the total “investment package” government modelled in calculating its “payback” date, only 8.6 per cent was directly related to battery production at the Volkswagen plant. More than 90 per cent was based on assumptions about developments outside of the subsidized battery-makers purview or control.

By contract, the PBO’s modelling of the investment cost-recovery focused only on “government revenues generated by cell and module manufacturing, upon which the production subsidies are based.” And unlike the government’s analysis, the PBO analysis starts when production is actually expected to begin at the new battery plants, which is not until sometime next year.

And yet, the PBO analysis remains quite generous as it excluded “public debt charges that would be incurred to finance the production subsidies” and simply accepted estimates of production capability by Stellantis and Volkswagen.

Clearly, the Trudeau government’s EV crusade is textbook bad public policy where the government attempts to pick winners and losers in the economy, in this case dependent on fanciful scenarios of future developments in global markets far outside Canada’s control. The crusade is also out of step with developments in the largest likely market for Canadian EVs and EV products—the United States, where car buyers are increasingly rejecting EVs despite heavy subsidies and massive government spending initiatives to promote EV manufacturing.

Governments in North America have been trying to push EVs over internal combustion vehicles for 30 years now, and it has not worked. EVs have consistently failed to compete with combustion vehicles on performance and cost, and failed to win broad consumer support despite oceans of government subsidies for manufacturers and buyers alike. It’s long past time for government to take off its rose-coloured glasses on the EV transition. There are better uses for government’s time and money. Getting people’s food and housing costs down, for example, might be a good place to start.

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2025 Federal Election

Columnist warns Carney Liberals will consider a home equity tax on primary residences

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From LifeSiteNews

By Steve Jalsevac

The Liberals paid a group called Generation Squeeze, led by activist Paul Kershaw, to study how the government could tap into Canadians’ home equity — including their primary residences.

Winnipeg Sun Columnist Kevin Klein is sounding the alarm there is substantial evidence the Carney Liberal Party is considering implementing a home equity tax on Canadians’ primary residences as a potential huge source of funds to bring down the massive national debt their spending created.

Klein wrote in his April 23 column and stated in his accompanying video presentation:

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) — a federal Crown corporation — has investigated the possibility of a home equity tax on more than one occasion, using taxpayer dollars to fund that research. This was not backroom speculation. It was real, documented work.

The Liberals paid a group called Generation Squeeze, led by activist Paul Kershaw, to study how the government could tap into Canadians’ home equity — including their primary residences.

Kershaw, by the way, believes homeowners are “lottery winners” who didn’t earn their wealth but lucked into it. That’s the ideology being advanced to the highest levels of government.

It didn’t stop there. These proposals were presented directly to federal cabinet ministers. That’s on record, and most of those same ministers are now part of Mark Carney’s team as he positions himself as the Liberals’ next leader.

Watch below Klein’s 7-minute, impassionate warning to Canadians about this looming major new tax should the Liberals win Monday’s election.

Klein further adds:

The total home equity held by Canadians is over $4.7 trillion. It’s the largest pool of private wealth in the country. For millions of Canadians — especially baby boomers — it’s the only retirement fund they have. They don’t have big pensions. They have a paid-off house and a hope that it will carry them through their later years. Yet, that’s what Ottawa has quietly been circling.

The Canadian Taxpayer’s Federation has researched this issue and published a report on the alarming amount of new taxation a homeowner equity tax could cost Canadians who sell their homes that have increased in value over the years they have lived in it. It is a shocker!

A Google search on the question, “what is a home equity tax?” returns the response:

A home equity tax, simply put, it’s a proposed levy on the increased value of your home, specifically, on your principal residence. The idea is for Government to raise money by taxing wealth accumulation from rising property values.

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation has provided a Home Equity Tax Calculator Backgrounder to help Canadians understand what the impact of three different types of Home Equity Tax Calculators would have on home owners. The required tax payment resulting from all three is a shocker.

Keep in mind that World Economic Forum policies intend to eventually eliminate all private home ownership and have the state own and control not only all residences, but also eliminate car ownership, and control when and where you may live and travel.

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Steve is the co-founder and managing director of LifeSiteNews.com.
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It Took Trump To Get Canada Serious About Free Trade With Itself

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From the  Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Lee Harding

Trump’s protectionism has jolted Canada into finally beginning to tear down interprovincial trade barriers

The threat of Donald Trump’s tariffs and the potential collapse of North American free trade have prompted Canada to look inward. With international trade under pressure, the country is—at last—taking meaningful steps to improve trade within its borders.

Canada’s Constitution gives provinces control over many key economic levers. While Ottawa manages international trade, the provinces regulate licensing, certification and procurement rules. These fragmented regulations have long acted as internal trade barriers, forcing companies and professionals to navigate duplicate approval processes when operating across provincial lines.

These restrictions increase costs, delay projects and limit job opportunities for businesses and workers. For consumers, they mean higher prices and fewer choices. Economists estimate that these barriers hold back up to $200 billion of Canada’s economy annually, roughly eight per cent of the country’s GDP.

Ironically, it wasn’t until after Canada signed the North American Free Trade Agreement that it began to address domestic trade restrictions. In 1994, the first ministers signed the Agreement on Internal Trade (AIT), committing to equal treatment of bidders on provincial and municipal contracts. Subsequent regional agreements, such as Alberta and British Columbia’s Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility Agreement in 2007, and the New West Partnership that followed, expanded cooperation to include broader credential recognition and enforceable dispute resolution.

In 2017, the Canadian Free Trade Agreement (CFTA) replaced the AIT to streamline trade among provinces and territories. While more ambitious in scope, the CFTA’s effectiveness has been limited by a patchwork of exemptions and slow implementation.

Now, however, Trump’s protectionism has reignited momentum to fix the problem. In recent months, provincial and territorial labour market ministers met with their federal counterpart to strengthen the CFTA. Their goal: to remove longstanding barriers and unlock the full potential of Canada’s internal market.

According to a March 5 CFTA press release, five governments have agreed to eliminate 40 exemptions they previously claimed for themselves. A June 1 deadline has been set to produce an action plan for nationwide mutual recognition of professional credentials. Ministers are also working on the mutual recognition of consumer goods, excluding food, so that if a product is approved for sale in one province, it can be sold anywhere in Canada without added red tape.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has signalled that his province won’t wait for consensus. Ontario is dropping all its CFTA exemptions, allowing medical professionals to begin practising while awaiting registration with provincial regulators.

Ontario has partnered with Nova Scotia and New Brunswick to implement mutual recognition of goods, services and registered workers. These provinces have also enabled direct-to-consumer alcohol sales, letting individuals purchase alcohol directly from producers for personal consumption.

A joint CFTA statement says other provinces intend to follow suit, except Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador.

These developments are long overdue. Confederation happened more than 150 years ago, and prohibition ended more than a century ago, yet Canadians still face barriers when trying to buy a bottle of wine from another province or find work across a provincial line.

Perhaps now, Canada will finally become the economic union it was always meant to be. Few would thank Donald Trump, but without his tariffs, this renewed urgency to break down internal trade barriers might never have emerged.

Lee Harding is a research fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

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